Where are we? (QQQQ)
If you are an avid reader of this blog, you 'll notice that I write about the "Big Picture" every so often. The last two times were back in July11th and 27th (go back and re-visit for your sake). I feel that it is time again to think about where we are, in terms of the stock market. Isn't it so easy to get lost and forget where we stand? (this is why most investors are not successful - they don't stop and think). I will give you a picture using QQQQ as a bench mark. Oh, by the way, the reason I use QQQQ so often is because real bull market wouldn't be real, unless QQQQ is leading the way. Besides, most of our holdings are from the NASDAQ market.
The year 2006 began with the QQQQ closing at $41.31 (January 3rd). The high for this year was at $43.31 (January 11th). Then, it basically went down hill from there. The low of this year so far was at $35.54 (July 18th). From high to low, we lost -18% on QQQQ. Since the low point on 7/18, the market began to move up. As of last Friday, QQQQ stood at $38.32 (August 25th). So from the beginning of this year, QQQQ is ONLY down -7.2%.
Two weeks ago, the market (I mean QQQQ) made a strong upward move. Last week was a test to see if it would hold those gains. And guess what - it help up quite well. It withstood numerous bad news without a major selloff. This is an encouraging sign. I think next week will prove to be positive. I will be buying QLD on Monday (we made so much money with the QID last week - remember?).
I will be in the hospital on Monday receiving my usual chemo injection. Just so you kow, this injection lasts three days. I will unhook this injection on Wednesday. I just hope that it won't be as bad as the last chemo session ( I am talking about the side-effects of chemo). What this means is that bi-weekly (chemo is every other week), I won't be in front of my computer on Mondays. I have to either stop my day-trade or I have to leave it overnight. I think I will leave QLD overnight unless I get to my computer in time (with profit I hope).
Bottom line: Was the July 18th the absolute bottom of this year? No one knows. I just feel that we will see the bottom sometime durng the third quarter (July 1st - September 30th). Once again, as I have said many times - we are in the danger zone until there is a clear trend in the market. We just have to handle it week by week. Odds favor positive week next week. Let's see. Have a wonderful weekend.
P.S: Both BTYH & AUTO fell too much. Value hunters will buy at this low prices for eventual higher prices. You do what you have to, I may be buying more next week. I will tell you if I do.
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