Q & A: XMSR
What a week! I had a fantastic week as far as earnings go. The QQQQ trades were done with razor like precision (using QLD & QID) and overall, the gains were in the five figures this week alone! But here's the thing - I thought I would help some of you by sharing my day (quick) trades on top of our usual Acetrader portfolio management. But I am beginning to think this might be worthless effort on my part.
First, you have to have decent five figure account size to even attempt to try QQQQ trades. Second, you have to follow quite deligently with this blog. Third, this may be too confusing to some of you. In any case, I may decide to simply devote this space for Acetrader account only - without the day trade comments. Please share your thoughts through comment section below. If I do not receive enough positive comments regarding the day trades - it will be discontinued. So move your fingers and vote.
Quick note about my health status: Yes, overall, my chemo sessions are going great. I've been on this chemo for 9 months now (heck, in that time I could have had a baby). Normally people are suffering big by now but I am holding up pretty nicely. But (there's always a but) I started to have sores and scrapes in my mouth as well as in my ass. Having a sore in your mouth is bad enough, but when both of your holes have sores - watch out. Let me just say this: If I were you, I would kneel and thank god every morning that you have a pain free day. There are millions upon millions people who would do just that if only the pain would go away.
Here's a comment from a reader:
Anonymous said...
XMSR somehow reminds me of NFLX (NetFlix) 18 months ago. Simple business model, only a few competitors, few factors to project future earnings (to me, key is fixed cost per customer, market share, and product trend)I made a wrong call 18 months ago after a 2-hour mathmatics exercise, concluded that Netflix was overvalued at $12. Looking back, my projection was simply too pessimistic. I had a similar feeling towards XMSR, (wish I was wrong again)What attracts you in XMSR?
Fantastic question I might add. Here's a guy who is actually thinking out loud. Siyu is a fellow analyst as well as a friend. My answer:
1. Unlike NetFlix - XMSR only has one (1) other competitor - SIRI
2. This is the next best thing to a monopoly
3. This Radio business is not only here to stay but is growing like cancer :)
4. Most people do not know how to value this type of business -NPV
5. Case in point: compare SIRI vs. XMSR (it is ridiculous)
6. XMSR is the current leader between the two
7. All things being equal, XMSR is five times cheaper than SIRI
8. XMSR is only 6-9 months away from profitable quarter
9. Stocks always discount 6-9 months into the future
10. Technically speaking - we are near the breakout.
11. Upside is big - within the last 2 years, it was as high as $40
12. It has GM as a partner -the largest auto maker
13. There's a chance that SIRI might buyout XMSR
14. There's so much negativity on XMSR that downside is limited
15. If you have actually used its service - you can't live without it
16. It's like a navigation system (GRMN) - hooked on it.
17. Most of rental cars decided to place setellite radios
18. People now purchase personal carry-on devices
19. Got XM?
Have a great weekend guys & gals...
First, you have to have decent five figure account size to even attempt to try QQQQ trades. Second, you have to follow quite deligently with this blog. Third, this may be too confusing to some of you. In any case, I may decide to simply devote this space for Acetrader account only - without the day trade comments. Please share your thoughts through comment section below. If I do not receive enough positive comments regarding the day trades - it will be discontinued. So move your fingers and vote.
Quick note about my health status: Yes, overall, my chemo sessions are going great. I've been on this chemo for 9 months now (heck, in that time I could have had a baby). Normally people are suffering big by now but I am holding up pretty nicely. But (there's always a but) I started to have sores and scrapes in my mouth as well as in my ass. Having a sore in your mouth is bad enough, but when both of your holes have sores - watch out. Let me just say this: If I were you, I would kneel and thank god every morning that you have a pain free day. There are millions upon millions people who would do just that if only the pain would go away.
Here's a comment from a reader:
Anonymous said...
XMSR somehow reminds me of NFLX (NetFlix) 18 months ago. Simple business model, only a few competitors, few factors to project future earnings (to me, key is fixed cost per customer, market share, and product trend)I made a wrong call 18 months ago after a 2-hour mathmatics exercise, concluded that Netflix was overvalued at $12. Looking back, my projection was simply too pessimistic. I had a similar feeling towards XMSR, (wish I was wrong again)What attracts you in XMSR?
Fantastic question I might add. Here's a guy who is actually thinking out loud. Siyu is a fellow analyst as well as a friend. My answer:
1. Unlike NetFlix - XMSR only has one (1) other competitor - SIRI
2. This is the next best thing to a monopoly
3. This Radio business is not only here to stay but is growing like cancer :)
4. Most people do not know how to value this type of business -NPV
5. Case in point: compare SIRI vs. XMSR (it is ridiculous)
6. XMSR is the current leader between the two
7. All things being equal, XMSR is five times cheaper than SIRI
8. XMSR is only 6-9 months away from profitable quarter
9. Stocks always discount 6-9 months into the future
10. Technically speaking - we are near the breakout.
11. Upside is big - within the last 2 years, it was as high as $40
12. It has GM as a partner -the largest auto maker
13. There's a chance that SIRI might buyout XMSR
14. There's so much negativity on XMSR that downside is limited
15. If you have actually used its service - you can't live without it
16. It's like a navigation system (GRMN) - hooked on it.
17. Most of rental cars decided to place setellite radios
18. People now purchase personal carry-on devices
19. Got XM?
Have a great weekend guys & gals...
posted by Jaewoo | 10:11 PM
5 Comments:
I follow your blogs and have made good money. But your swing trades in qid seem to be like gambling because I do not believe any one can predict day to day movements.You probably were lucky the last two days.
I do admire you with so much medical problems and still writing these blogs and help giving good advice on stocks.
I agree that your swing trades seem to very risky, and i am guessing you are playing with money on a margin account.
BUT (there is alllways a but!) i found it worthwhile and interesting to read about how you went about them and your thought process surrounding those trades. It might come in handy a few years down the line, when i become as rich and confident as you ;-)
-Joseph
Most inspiring among many others while reading your blog is to hear your upbeat attitude.
we have every reason to wake up in the morning and appreciate what we have... every single day.
Not being a satelite radio customers, I don't have the same conviction that you have.
It is good to have your words on it, will check it out this morning.
See you soon.
Siyu
hey ace
love your blog and would like to continue seeing your daytrade (qld, qid) ideas. however, i will continue reading the blog with or without them and good luck with your treatments. Hope you defeat the evil C.
Your blog keeps getting better and better! Your older articles are not as good as newer ones you have a lot more creativity and originality now keep it up!
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