Comments from you
Comment #1:
You mention that over the long term stocks produce the best returns over cash, bonds and real estate. Stocks(even the lesser known names that you buy)have better liquidity than real estate. Just look at all the "for sale" signs out there! I was also wondering what you thought about shorting GROW. - Anonymous.
Reply: U.S. Global Investors, Inc. (GROW - what a great symbol) through its wholly owned subsidiaries, provides mutual fund management services. It provides investment advisory services to institutions and individuals. First of all, this is a great business to be in right now. Although price went up quickly during the last few months, and this does look over-extended (what isn't these days), I would not reccommend shorting this one. The risk/reward ratio is not good enough. At any time, a bigger money management company can easily step up and offer to buy this one. No debt, over 5X current ratio, over 50% return on assets and equity is too juicy for bigger guys. When market falls, this will too but you have so much better shorts to go after. Let's not mess with the good stock in the right business. For shorting ideas, look below.
P.S: Give at least your first name next time.
Comment #2:
Goldman Sachs ups the 12-month price target of BIDU to $128 today. Do you think it is still a good short target? How about its Jan115 puts? I also like the AXR short and can not find any shares available.-Dennis
Reply: Dennis - thank you for sharing the information with the rest of us. Although I knew this already, other readers may not have. I read a lot and I can not share all the pertinent ideas with you. So here goes my thoughts.
BIDU: Basically, Baidu.com is the Google (GOOG) of China. Sounds great so far. Due to the initial success, many investors are flocking into this company. BIDU is already trying to mimic their success in Japan as well. But people are blindly pouring money into this without thinking. See if you agree with me if I lay the big picture for you like this:
1. With all the success, this company has only $88 million in revenue
2. Current market value stands at $4 Billion dollars - what?
3. Forward PE of 67X ( compare this to Google forward PE of 34X)
4. By the way, Google is not cheap either.
5. They are moving into Japanese market (this will cost money - a lot)
6. Japan will not lay still or bend over for BIDU
7. The Real bad news - Google just arrived in China!
8. Google is hiring the best talent in China (few hundred top ones already)
9. If you were a hot engineer in China, would you work for GOOG or BIDU?
10. BIDU should worry about China, never mind Japan.
11. I will maybe (maybe) consider this at 50% off - no less
12. Now what do you think? Yes, I thought so.
Lastly, using an option is a great idea (however, Acetrader will not utilize options). If you are buying the puts, do not buy Jan. contract. Buy at least a Jun. contract at lower excerise price. I will not go into details but trust me - I have extensive experience with naked options.
AXR: This is simply too pricy. I have no idea why. This is another 50% off candidate. I will not bother with an analysis on this one. I would short this.
P.S: As per my previous blog, I have this funny feeling that the market has not hit the top yet. (we just sold our QID remember?) Which means that both BIDU and AXR might go up further from here. I would wait until the down turn is more obvious before shorting either one. I am assuming that you are not a day trader. For day traders, every day is a potential short day. By following my blog, you will see when I turn decisively negative (when I buy QID back). Do not chase just yet - Dennis ...
PPS: Dear Readers - does this kind of Q & A help you guys? Comments please...
You mention that over the long term stocks produce the best returns over cash, bonds and real estate. Stocks(even the lesser known names that you buy)have better liquidity than real estate. Just look at all the "for sale" signs out there! I was also wondering what you thought about shorting GROW. - Anonymous.
Reply: U.S. Global Investors, Inc. (GROW - what a great symbol) through its wholly owned subsidiaries, provides mutual fund management services. It provides investment advisory services to institutions and individuals. First of all, this is a great business to be in right now. Although price went up quickly during the last few months, and this does look over-extended (what isn't these days), I would not reccommend shorting this one. The risk/reward ratio is not good enough. At any time, a bigger money management company can easily step up and offer to buy this one. No debt, over 5X current ratio, over 50% return on assets and equity is too juicy for bigger guys. When market falls, this will too but you have so much better shorts to go after. Let's not mess with the good stock in the right business. For shorting ideas, look below.
P.S: Give at least your first name next time.
Comment #2:
Goldman Sachs ups the 12-month price target of BIDU to $128 today. Do you think it is still a good short target? How about its Jan115 puts? I also like the AXR short and can not find any shares available.-Dennis
Reply: Dennis - thank you for sharing the information with the rest of us. Although I knew this already, other readers may not have. I read a lot and I can not share all the pertinent ideas with you. So here goes my thoughts.
BIDU: Basically, Baidu.com is the Google (GOOG) of China. Sounds great so far. Due to the initial success, many investors are flocking into this company. BIDU is already trying to mimic their success in Japan as well. But people are blindly pouring money into this without thinking. See if you agree with me if I lay the big picture for you like this:
1. With all the success, this company has only $88 million in revenue
2. Current market value stands at $4 Billion dollars - what?
3. Forward PE of 67X ( compare this to Google forward PE of 34X)
4. By the way, Google is not cheap either.
5. They are moving into Japanese market (this will cost money - a lot)
6. Japan will not lay still or bend over for BIDU
7. The Real bad news - Google just arrived in China!
8. Google is hiring the best talent in China (few hundred top ones already)
9. If you were a hot engineer in China, would you work for GOOG or BIDU?
10. BIDU should worry about China, never mind Japan.
11. I will maybe (maybe) consider this at 50% off - no less
12. Now what do you think? Yes, I thought so.
Lastly, using an option is a great idea (however, Acetrader will not utilize options). If you are buying the puts, do not buy Jan. contract. Buy at least a Jun. contract at lower excerise price. I will not go into details but trust me - I have extensive experience with naked options.
AXR: This is simply too pricy. I have no idea why. This is another 50% off candidate. I will not bother with an analysis on this one. I would short this.
P.S: As per my previous blog, I have this funny feeling that the market has not hit the top yet. (we just sold our QID remember?) Which means that both BIDU and AXR might go up further from here. I would wait until the down turn is more obvious before shorting either one. I am assuming that you are not a day trader. For day traders, every day is a potential short day. By following my blog, you will see when I turn decisively negative (when I buy QID back). Do not chase just yet - Dennis ...
PPS: Dear Readers - does this kind of Q & A help you guys? Comments please...
posted by Jaewoo | 9:29 PM
5 Comments:
Your answers to the comments are excellant and very useful.
I shorted 500 shares of AXR at 120 and another 500 shares at 130. now I will wait. The problem is I do not know how far AXR should go down before you think it is in down turn because by the time I realise the stock is in down turn it turns around and goes up 10 to 20 %.( was AXR at 117 yesterday a signal for down turn?)
I also have 2000 PCLN short at 41 and 2000 shares of QID bought at 51.
I have enough cushion to let them go upto 50% or more against my position. Even yahoo came down all the way from 240 to 10. Hope fully I will cover these position in the next few days to weeks.
gus
Hi,
I hope you are feeling well. I was wondering if you could shed some colour on RICK and its recent performance. From all accounts, the company is rock solid and growing fast, it seems just like one guy or a few guys dumping shares and the price going down.
Any insight. Have a great holiday.
Jaewoo,
Thanks for your response. I can feel the market is tired, but still tries to push for new highs. With most of the retail investors taking charge for the last two weeks, I will probably wait for the new year before I pull the trigger.
I am watching QID and SDS, I hope they will go below 51 and 57. As for AXR, my brokers just can not find any shares to short.
RICK is getting really cheap, I just took a (half) position of 1100 shares at $5.56. I will add more if it drops below 5.
Have a nice holiday.
-Dennis.
I find it interesting that 2 of the stocks mentioned as short candidates(AXR and GROW) appear on Investor Business Daily's list of top 100 stocks. In fact, as of a couple of weeks ago, they were #1 and #2 respectively. One thing I have learned about shorting is that even if a stock is ridiculously overpriced, you should never short it when the momentum is so strong.
Gus:
AXR: if it fails to bounce at $110 and goes through $105, it is definately bearish. Still can push higher - just hold.
PCLN: Should be on the way down - cover between $33-$35.
QID: You will definately make $ with this. You can afford to wait.
Remember, long term we are still bullish for stocks in 2007.
Rajeev: I will write about RICK. Hold on, along with my 6,000 shares
Dennis: Nice buy on RICK. Keep trying for AXR availability. I use Fidelity and I can find shares here and there.
Terry: IBD is the best financial news paper. IBD 100 is simply a momentum list (relative strength). As I have said, we need to wait until down turn is more obvious. All these stocks have the ability to go up further.
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