Big Picture V: updates
First trading day of October 2006.
We have now officially entered the 4th quarter of this year. It's time to revisit my usual "Big Picture" segments in order for us to get ready for the last ride. Here's my take on the investment environment today:
1. Stocks: we will see new highs for this year during 4th Q.
2. Interest rates: Definately no change before and probably no change after the election season (November). So, rate movements will not hurt us (Bernanke talk might).
3. Election: Republicans will keep the Senate; Congress is a toss up. Republican control will enable Mr. Bush to finish the job ( like it or not, this bull market is a direct result of Mr. Bush's economic policy of low taxes).
4. Gold/Oil: Commodities such as gold and oil has lost its mojo. Most are hitting new 52week lows. Did you know that the best time to buy gold stock is in the 4th quarter? This winter, we might finally buy into gold related issues. Stay away from these fr now.
5. Bonds: Who cares? Rates probably will come down early next year. Not a bad investment if you are looking for 5% annual returns.
And what about our portfoilios?
I will do you a favor by placing our stocks into different catagories:
* Buy now and hopefully never sell unless: RICK / UTK / MATK (be patient with these, do not try to trade these either. You must own these if you are a long term investor: our core)
* Buy now and sell it when price target is reached: XMSR / NTE / IGLD / EXPEZ (on every Performance updates, price targets are updated)
* Potential home run or we will sell it: MIDS / IDWD (you never know with these guys)
* Down but not out - double down please: BTYH (buy more near $0.60's)
* Testing my patience - near sell but not yet: AUTO (do not sell unless it closes near $0.90- $0.95 area: this has potential to jump toward $2 in a heart beat).
That's all folks.
How do you like my presentation? Did this help?
Good luck in October!
We have now officially entered the 4th quarter of this year. It's time to revisit my usual "Big Picture" segments in order for us to get ready for the last ride. Here's my take on the investment environment today:
1. Stocks: we will see new highs for this year during 4th Q.
2. Interest rates: Definately no change before and probably no change after the election season (November). So, rate movements will not hurt us (Bernanke talk might).
3. Election: Republicans will keep the Senate; Congress is a toss up. Republican control will enable Mr. Bush to finish the job ( like it or not, this bull market is a direct result of Mr. Bush's economic policy of low taxes).
4. Gold/Oil: Commodities such as gold and oil has lost its mojo. Most are hitting new 52week lows. Did you know that the best time to buy gold stock is in the 4th quarter? This winter, we might finally buy into gold related issues. Stay away from these fr now.
5. Bonds: Who cares? Rates probably will come down early next year. Not a bad investment if you are looking for 5% annual returns.
And what about our portfoilios?
I will do you a favor by placing our stocks into different catagories:
* Buy now and hopefully never sell unless: RICK / UTK / MATK (be patient with these, do not try to trade these either. You must own these if you are a long term investor: our core)
* Buy now and sell it when price target is reached: XMSR / NTE / IGLD / EXPEZ (on every Performance updates, price targets are updated)
* Potential home run or we will sell it: MIDS / IDWD (you never know with these guys)
* Down but not out - double down please: BTYH (buy more near $0.60's)
* Testing my patience - near sell but not yet: AUTO (do not sell unless it closes near $0.90- $0.95 area: this has potential to jump toward $2 in a heart beat).
That's all folks.
How do you like my presentation? Did this help?
Good luck in October!
posted by Jaewoo | 9:41 PM
5 Comments:
@Jaewoo,
Thanks for the mention in yesterdays post. I'm doing well. Just been busy lately with work.
Great post. I like how you broke it down. I have huge positions in EXPEZ (in at $5.80) /IGLD (in at $4.70). Smaller positions in XMSR and IDWD.
I have a question, as usual :)
I read on Y! Finance that EXPEZ is a warrant for 0.97 of EXPE shares. I am not sure i understand this correctly, but doesnt that mean that an EXPEZ holder would be entitled to 0.97 of EXPE (currently at $15.89) = $15.41 when the warrant expires in Oct '09. That means that EXPEZ is an awesome buy as long as it is below 0.97 of EXPE. I know i am definetely wrong on this :), so i was hoping for a simple explanation from you on this.
Thanks,
-Jo
Quick addendum to my above post:
http://investors.expediainc.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=190013&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=778329&highlight=
That is the link where i read about the EXPEZ information.
-Jo
I enjoyed reading your blog. I know nothing about stocks. I will be praying for you and your family. I do know something about that.
I wonder why you wanted to short JNPR when at the same time you said the market will go up in the third quarter.
But I bought 2000 shares of BGO at 4 and 1000 shares of NEM at 40 on your suggestion yesterday.
I have learned a lot from your blogs.
Bought 500 shares of qid at 38.90 today hopefully for a quick profit if and when it touches 39.99 in the next day or two.
gmm
Jo: see my new writeup.
Paul: Thank you. I hope my notes will get you into some investing? You knoe you have to some day.
GMM: Name & Place please. As per JNPR for my day trade account I was out with +3% gain in three trading days on Monday. You're right - the market was too strong for me to stay short JNPR. However, I still feel JNPR will go down soon. I might jump back in again soon (above $18). BTW, beautiful trade on BGO. Do not hold this now. Sell it for a quick profit and trade it. The long term buy will not occur until end of December. It will go below $4 later. Trade quickly, good luck.
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