Wht's your position?
As I have noted previously, we are now in a mini bull market which may turn out to be our last run before turning south. However, many investors are nervous still. I am sure you are too (assuming you are in the market). By the way, one can not learn about the market with pen and paper. You must participate with your hard earned U.S. dollars. This is the only way to learn. And unfortunately, we must pay a tuition (in the form of losses) time to time. I am always eagar to pay them; this is the only way to learn. Just know that I am with you.
In order to be a serious investor, one must take a position. No, you don't want to be stubborn and keep losing but you need to know why you placed a bet in the first place. Most people do not have a position. They simply listen to other people without thinking. This is why most people are not good investors. Even on this blog (only friends and families are watching plus occational visitors) I do not recommend you to simply listen; think for yourself whether it makes sense. If all this sounds boring but you still want to make $ in the market put 50% in the Wilshire 5000 Index (TMW), 20% in the Emerging Market Index (EEM) and 30% Lehman AggBond Index (AGG). This portfolio will probably beat 75%-80% of all investments in your life time. No thinking, no sweat, no checking everyday with good performance and most importantly the safe way to beat inflation. This idea alone is worth many thousands of dollars - trust me on this. ( I used to charge people for what basically comes down to above idea and the people not only paid me but thanked me). Now let me ask you - did you know that above portfolio beats almost 80% of all investments with better safety? Did you even know and follow TMW /EEM/AGG ? This is why I get paid.
So, what is your position?
Do you want to know mine? (if you've been reading past notes you'll get the idea).
Once and for all, here's my "Position for 2006" ( now this definately is worth money :-))
STOCKS: I expect under 10% return this year (SP500), since the market already gave us almost 4% in the 1st quarter and I expect 4th quarter to be decent, this does not leave much gains in the 2nd & 3rd quarter. This is why I keep saying that what we have now is probably the last mini bull run this year until the 4th quarter.
OIL: Who knows what will happen & when. But this is the very reason you need at least one unit of Oil related holdings. To me, it does not matter what the price of oil is; I will hold my oil stocks for a long term until there is peace in the middle east. (Oil will probably trade between $55 - $75 during 2006 with occational spikes - this is good for us).
GOLD: Long term - I am bullish. Short term - I think this has to take a rest (it is at $637/oz). I still say that it will go back to $5xx/oz before resume its uptrend. I am short gold now - will be long later.
The above, pretty much explains my own position in the market. Can it change? Maybe, but not likely. Someone was concerned about my short position in KRY (gold) now that gold is at $637. First of all, I am up on KRY as of today. First shorted at $6.15 (Apr.10th) then covered at $5.25 (Apr.11th) for a gain of +15% in 2 days. Then I shorted again at $5.3 - still holding. If it gets to $6.15 again (as of 7:58pm it is at $5.97) I will double down. That's my position.
I have covered most (90%) of my short position in HYTM. They may get additional funding and this excited some buyers. I don't need the headach. I am out for now. My position on this one? HYTM will go down, thus, I will re-visit later to short again when it goes below $7.5/sh.
Tomorrow, I will short Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Rambus (RMBS) and long (this means buy) Pioneer Drilling (PDC) and Allergen (AGN).
Pioneer because they provide drilling services to oil& gas companies (do you think oil companies want to drill more or less now that oil price is hitting all time high? what do you think?)
Allergen because it got knocked down too heavily due to contact lens scare (trust me people will still buy and wear lenses - they have no choice unless they get a LASIK surgery).
Tomorrow will be a busy day as you can see. Happy trading guys and gals.
In order to be a serious investor, one must take a position. No, you don't want to be stubborn and keep losing but you need to know why you placed a bet in the first place. Most people do not have a position. They simply listen to other people without thinking. This is why most people are not good investors. Even on this blog (only friends and families are watching plus occational visitors) I do not recommend you to simply listen; think for yourself whether it makes sense. If all this sounds boring but you still want to make $ in the market put 50% in the Wilshire 5000 Index (TMW), 20% in the Emerging Market Index (EEM) and 30% Lehman AggBond Index (AGG). This portfolio will probably beat 75%-80% of all investments in your life time. No thinking, no sweat, no checking everyday with good performance and most importantly the safe way to beat inflation. This idea alone is worth many thousands of dollars - trust me on this. ( I used to charge people for what basically comes down to above idea and the people not only paid me but thanked me). Now let me ask you - did you know that above portfolio beats almost 80% of all investments with better safety? Did you even know and follow TMW /EEM/AGG ? This is why I get paid.
So, what is your position?
Do you want to know mine? (if you've been reading past notes you'll get the idea).
Once and for all, here's my "Position for 2006" ( now this definately is worth money :-))
STOCKS: I expect under 10% return this year (SP500), since the market already gave us almost 4% in the 1st quarter and I expect 4th quarter to be decent, this does not leave much gains in the 2nd & 3rd quarter. This is why I keep saying that what we have now is probably the last mini bull run this year until the 4th quarter.
OIL: Who knows what will happen & when. But this is the very reason you need at least one unit of Oil related holdings. To me, it does not matter what the price of oil is; I will hold my oil stocks for a long term until there is peace in the middle east. (Oil will probably trade between $55 - $75 during 2006 with occational spikes - this is good for us).
GOLD: Long term - I am bullish. Short term - I think this has to take a rest (it is at $637/oz). I still say that it will go back to $5xx/oz before resume its uptrend. I am short gold now - will be long later.
The above, pretty much explains my own position in the market. Can it change? Maybe, but not likely. Someone was concerned about my short position in KRY (gold) now that gold is at $637. First of all, I am up on KRY as of today. First shorted at $6.15 (Apr.10th) then covered at $5.25 (Apr.11th) for a gain of +15% in 2 days. Then I shorted again at $5.3 - still holding. If it gets to $6.15 again (as of 7:58pm it is at $5.97) I will double down. That's my position.
I have covered most (90%) of my short position in HYTM. They may get additional funding and this excited some buyers. I don't need the headach. I am out for now. My position on this one? HYTM will go down, thus, I will re-visit later to short again when it goes below $7.5/sh.
Tomorrow, I will short Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Rambus (RMBS) and long (this means buy) Pioneer Drilling (PDC) and Allergen (AGN).
Pioneer because they provide drilling services to oil& gas companies (do you think oil companies want to drill more or less now that oil price is hitting all time high? what do you think?)
Allergen because it got knocked down too heavily due to contact lens scare (trust me people will still buy and wear lenses - they have no choice unless they get a LASIK surgery).
Tomorrow will be a busy day as you can see. Happy trading guys and gals.
posted by Jaewoo | 11:55 PM
7 Comments:
Jae:
Yet again, another great post. Maybe I should follow your "no brainer" rule for my 401K and IRA? Like you said, it will be better than what they are doing now...
Super job Jae, my stomach is calling for the index stoxx you chose so I am getting in there for some stability.. Thanx
Everyone:
I did not know that my "AUTO" index investment portfolio will be this popular. Great!
Yes, your IRA & 401K can be a perfect vehicle for this "intelligent, no brainer" portfolio. But did you know that you need a brain to set up such a no braiber portfolio?
One advise: Do not try to be fancy and change the mix. Stocks 70% and Bond 30%. The stock is diveded into 2 types: Wilshire 5000 (US equity) and Emerging Market (out side of US). Personally I am more bullish on EEM than TMW in the next 30 years. But TMW is less volatile than EEM. How you divide is your choice. Good choice guys!
With this portfolio, you don't need luck. It will outperform most of investments in your life time!
Why do you think we might be heading south? That the mini-bull run might be short-lived?
Great site lots of usefull infomation here.
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Very pretty site! Keep working. thnx!
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Great site lots of usefull infomation here.
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