How to get Started ...
Why did I say next week will be exciting? Because I expect the market to be quite positive in coming weeks. As I have said in my previous blogs, this will probably be the last leg up before turning south this year. Tomorrow begins the earnings week (1st Q. of 2006). I think U.S. companies did well in the first quarter. Market will like the reports and move up. I also expect Gold and Oils to cool a bit in coming weeks (does not mean tomorrow). If not, we have a new trend and will follow the new lead. I am not stubborn, I simply follow the trend. That's how you need to approach the market.
The reason for my title is that a few people had asked me if they should buy this or that. Let me explain my thoughts regarding how to start investing in the market:
1. You need to know & determine your unit size (one unit is how much you put into one idea)
2. Personally, I think one (1) unit should be at least $2,000-$2,500 (due to trading cost; most of you can buy or sell stocks for under $10 per trade. If your trading cost is more than 1% in & out, your returns will suffer)
3. Your goal is to have a minimum of at least ten (10) units of investments in different industry (being in 10 different stocks in different industry eliminates about 90% of unsystematic risk; having 20 or more stocks will only improve this number by a few percentage points; I currently have ten but hope to add a few more)
4. Of course if you do not have enough capital to hold10 units, you simply start with one
5. Which broker? Does not matter as long as they charge under $10 per trade online (there are so many choices out there but try to stick with the big ones; less headachs later)
6. I absolutely believe in diversification but hates over-diversifying your portfolios (say if you have $100K to invest, your one unit should be somewhere between $5k-$10K resulting in 10-20 stocks; Not 50 stocks at $2,000 each!)
7. There's no way you can effectively follow fifty (50) stocks (if you disagree with me and believe in 50-100+ stock portfolios then simply buy index funds; chances are it will outperform your 50+ portfolios)
8. If you have 3 stocks and 2 go down, that's normal. If you own 10 stocks and 9 go down, we have a problem (currently among my 10 stocks: 9 up and 1 down)
9. If you have a problem and need my opinion, just ask.
10. This blog was created to help my friends and families in addition to keep my own records
11. Lastly and most importantly, have fun (paper loss is not a loss yet :-< )
BTW, sometimes if you really like an idea, you put more than your usual one unit. Currently I have two stocks with two unit investments; MATK and RICK. IDWD became the size of two units (more than doubled in March) but I invested only one originally. Trying to decide whether to sell half of my gains or let it ride - I will follow closely and tell you what I do.
P.S: I think I have created a stir in the HYTM message board. Many people are cursing me out! If I am wrong about this short position, I will let you know when I get out. For now, I do not believe in their treatment; the company will loose a lot of money. Of course this does not mean the stock will go down in the short run (too many dumb people put $ without knowing what they are buying). Let's see how this one unfolds...
7 Comments:
OK, OK, Thanks for the compliment. But the bottom line is, we need to make some $ !
HYTM IS GARBAGE -- firm does 1M in revs, but has a bloated 300M market cap. No matter what multiple you use (282x sales -- c'mon dude!), the firm looks expensive.
On a DCF valuation model, it, too, looks preposterously overvalued. This firm can't be worth more than $2 bucks. I wouldn't touch this with a 20foot pole....
stocks go up for 1 of 3 reasons: dividend yield, earnings, or PE expansion.
HYTM will no be cash flow positive for many years. They are light years away from having enough free cash flow to spit out a dividend. In other words, the only way this hypergrowth stock will go up is because investors are pay up (foolishly) for future gorwth, which they have already started doing. I agree with JAE -- we will witness a regression to the mean and I suspect HYTM could return to the $3-4 range sooner rather than later...
Because the firm is a one product pony -- the value proposition is NOT for me. However, just to be fair, one should note that HYTM is debt free and carries 42M in cash on the books, roughly $1.18 per share....
Bottom line: The stock is in the first inning -- it could strike out or hit a home run and surprise everyone on board.
Everyone:
Dan's comment is another confirmation...
Thanks Dan.
I say briefly: Best! Useful information. Good job guys.
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