AceTrader

This site was designed to communicate with friends who share similar interest. The interest in the "free market". Stocks, over the long term, provide the best return on your money. More than cash, bonds and even real estate. Understand that investing is a learning process. We will learn from our mistakes and move on. This is a journey. Enjoy the ride!

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Location: Bayside, New York, United States

My love for the market began in 1987 when I first opened a brokerage account with Fidelity Investments. You know what happened back in 87'. "Black Monday", the market crashed. My initial $ went down fast. Thus began my thirst for the challenge to make it in the market. Although I have science background, my Bachelors degree is in Economics from Washington University (great school). I also have earned an MBA in Finance from Fordham University, New York. Although I am registered as an "investment advisor" with the NASD, any information in this blogger is not intended for any business use.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

What moves stocks?

I don't know about you but I am exhausted...
The market just tanked today because we had core CPI number released. (CPI: consumer price index = a gauge for future inflation). Guess what the number looked like. Market expected 0.2% but we got 0.3%. Now, does this sound like a huge problem to you? Let's just say the Wall Street is looking for excuses to sell. Everyone is gun shy right now. Basically it's like this:

#1: "If you are selling, then I am selling too!"
#2: "Since my stock price went down for no reason, I am selling"
#3: "I placed a tight stop loss order and it got excuted automatically"
#4: "Forget it, I am nervous, I am selling"

Please understand that the market goes up & down precisely because people react with emotions rather than facts. When a stock goes up, it goes up too much. When it goes down, it goes down too much also. If you can not stomach this volatility, then just get out. I fully understand that some people can not deal with this kinds of pressure.

Here's a million dollar question: "What moves stocks in the long run?".
Before I tell you the answer, let me remind you where it is coming from. I have studied extensively in the field of Economics (as you know my major was Economics) then I went ahead to complete an M.B.A. in Finance (with emphasis in Investments). Upon graduation, for the last ten (10) years I worked in three major Insurance & Investment companies. Most importantly, I have over 20 years of first hand experience in buying & selling Stocks/ Options/ Warrants/ and Mutual funds.

Now that you know where I am coming from, here is the answer: "EARNINGS". You may say that this is too simple but please know that many people forget this everyday. If you pick any company with some history, go back and look at the graph of its earnings and the stock price. Bingo! Almost perfect correlation with some lag time. No other measure matters. It is earnings, earnings and earnings. In real estate, it is location, location and location.

Example: RICK just released very positive earnings two days ago. Yesterday, the CEO raised his estimate of future earnings. Basically RICK made more money last quarter ( try 10 times more money than same time last year) and it is going to continue making higher earnings. In the mean time, the stock went down from $7.x to $6.x. So what do you do? This is not a complicated question. As you know, I just bought more at $6.11/share.

Same is true for MATK. There are some negative news like some might try to replace MATK's DHA with fish oil DHA. Trust me, there's no way fish oil DHA is as effective as MATK's DHA which is from microalgae. It also smells and has shorter shelf life compared to MATK's. This stock also went from about $32 to $24 eventhough the earnings were good. Can you guess what I did today? Coooorrrrrrect! I bought more of MATK at $23.88/share. This may be able to go lower but this is a good price. I know a good price when I see one. (I had to sell IGLD to purchse MATK - I will buyback IGLD later).

If you have some $ left try to diversify by buying any of the stocks in our portfolio. You can actually pay less than I did on some of them. And do not forget OIH: it is now a good price (remember I sold it a few days ago at $165.11 and it is now at $149/share).
The sale is on right now.
If you are shopping, this is a fun time ...

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