AceTrader

I love you Jaewoo, rest in peace in heaven by God

2007-05-28T20:36:00.000-04:00

On our son Ace's third birthday today, I am writing this for Jaewoo, my beloved husband. Several days before he went to heaven, he asked me to write in this blog to let everyone know how much he enjoyed this blog and thank everyone who cared and prayed for him.

Ever since he was diagnosed with stage IV colorectal cancer in October of 2005 until he passed on May 3rd, 2007 to be with God, he bravely and aggressively fought the fight. He was truly amazing in his ability to cope with pain and disease and not letting it get the better of him. Even towards the final days of his battle, he cared and loved others and showed tremendous faith. He never gave up. He gave me the strength and he was my inspiration. I've never met anyone who enjoyed and loved his life the way he did. Jeawoo had an infectious laugh, a warm smile and a beautiful heart and most of all, he had so much passion for life.

He went to heaven while Ace was holding his hand and the minister was praying for him laying his hand over Jaewoo's head in the presence of his mom, his brother, my mom and me. His father and sister's family came from Korea to bid him farewell and thankfully so many people came to mourn our family's loss.

Today is our son Ace's third birthday. Jaewoo wanted to live until Ace could remember him.
Jaewoo, my love, Ace will definately remember you and know how much you loved him. Yesterday, he asked me to give you a phone call to heaven. I'll live and raise Ace the way you would have wanted me to and make you proud. I thank you for the tremendous love that you gave me which I'll live the rest of my life with and I will cherish all the beautiful memories with you.

Jaewoo, rest in peace in heaven by God. I'll miss you until we meet again.

You will always live in my heart. I love you.

Brain is OK.

2007-03-05T06:46:00.000-05:00

I am still alive.
After two surgeries last two weeks, I am feeling very weak. In fact, I believe this is the worst I felt since the onset of my colon cancer. I will fill you in on the details soon.

I do realize that many are wondering about out stocks.
Simply put, unless I say anything, everything is a status quo.
Remember our portfilio was designed to go through what we are going through now. If you read the last note before I went into the hospital, I said to add to your QID holding. I last added QID on 2/23/2007 at $50.19 and the recent quote is at $57/share. QID will still go higher (this is now my 2nd largest holding).

CMGI: Acting beautiful. Add if price falls.
RICK: Sold some at $9.80 but hold on to rest - will go higher.
BTYH: Wait for our spin-off shares to freely trade in a few months.
MIDS: Keep buying at this levels - buy, buy.
UTK: Just came out with the financials - fantastic - this will hit $20
PRZ: Last added at $0.67 - this is too cheap.
AUTO: Wait for the financials. I will make decision on this one soon.
NTE: Hold steady. Acting nicely under these bad market conditions.
GDX: Weird - our smallerst holding and is a good insurance in any portfolio.

Potential buys:

OIH: if it falls below $130
REFR: Definately under $9 but lets see where it settles.

This was a quick and dirty version to let you know that I am still in the game. Pain medication 24/7 if you know what I mean. I now weigh 122 pounds (normally 152). Have not had any solid food for over a month. Be patient with me. My brain is still good : )

P.S: I too like MRVC but I prefer FNSR. Either way, wait for the market to settle down.

I've been sick

2007-02-16T16:11:00.000-05:00

Most of you were waiting for my usual timely updates.
I am sorry that I could not log on. I was really sick. From the very beginning (October 2005) of my cancer battle, the last week was the worst. I had pain in so many different places that I didn't even care. My oncologist, gave me even more powerful pain medication (Fentanyl) to ease the pain.

Just so you know, I am now wearing a bag that collects my urin coming from my left kidney. Yes, doctors inserted a tube to drain the kidney. As if this wasn't enough, CT scan showed suspicious "things" on my hip bone (this may be the cancer spreading to my bones). Let me just say that I am in no shape to write in any length right now.

With your help, I will get better soon and return to this pages as soon as I can.

Quick recaps then:

RICK: when I first reccommended this in the $4's I said that we will see double digits on this baby - well, now you have it. If you have a double, take some off the table but definately hold on to some shares for the long term - just sold some at $9.80

IDWD: this went up almost 50% today - one thing you can not say is that IDWD is boring. I am still holding on to my most speculative shares - I am as curious as you are as to how this story unfolds - my last purchase was at $0.41

BTYH: you probably see the Southland shares in your brokerage account by now. My estimate is that during the second quarter of this year, these shares will freely trade with ticker symbol. Once again, BTYH owns 25% of Southland shares.

MIDS: Those to can afford - keep adding to your shares - we bought more at $0.60

CMGI: Keep holding - I expect much higher price by the end of this year

PRZ: Just added more at $0.77

New ideas: I am interested in REFR under $9 and IRBT under $14

The market is showing quite a bit of strength. U.S. economy is in a fine shape. However, it will take a rest before moving up again. Buy some QID is you have not.
I am really tired ...

RICK: our ace

2007-02-07T17:30:00.000-05:00

If I had to guess which stock is most widely held by my readers - it is RICK. This is one of those stocks where you will want to hold onto it until ... The last time RICK was in trouable, price went from $9 to under $5 rather quickly. Most people didn't know what to do. We, on the other hand, advised buying more, lowering your average cost.

Some followed my advise, some did not. Those who didn't, is now kicking themselves you know where. RICK charged back up to $9 even more quickly, if you can believe that. So many people threw in the towel in the $5 range that I even used Apple (AAPL) as an example to calm people down (do you remember that? read past notes). I happened to know a guy who bought RICK in the $9 area and sold it in the $5 area (he said RICK was a piece of shXX). Emotion can play a powerful role in your life if you do not control yourself.

Did I know for sure that RICK will come back alive so quickly? Why was it down so much in the first place? When you are investing in the small cap area, many times things do not make sense. If RICK had been a large cap stock with numerous analyst looking into it, those wild moves probably would not have happened. And the truth is, I did not know for sure either. All I can tell you is that based on all available information, RICK was a buy, not a sell. If the company had been a fraud, there's nothing I can do. I just have to trust the SYSTEM. There will always be bad apples but more likely than not, the SYSTEM will take care of most of them.

I believe that most of our CEOs and managers are hard working, honest people. But I realize that there is always an exception. That's why we diversify. That's why we hold 10+ stocks in our portfolio. If you still hold only 2-3 stocks and your portfolio goes down big - don't bother calling me. You just broke the most important rule of this game. Good luck.

RICK just aquired a new club in Dallas. This outfit will add $4 million in addtional revenue as well as $1 million in EBITDA. Nice work. Eric, the CEO, is just cranking out the business plan as he said he would. When I met Eric, he looked 10 years older than he was (we are almost same age). And guess what, Eric holds over 2 million shares of RICK. Question: " Do you think he sold any when RICK was trading near $5 recently? I think not ".

Question #2: Mr. Nunan, the CEO of BTYH, and the single largest shareholder of Bad Toys: " Will he be selling his shares soon? I think not either".

Could PRZ be a fraud company (made up financials and all)?
Maybe. Could PRZ be delisted from the exchange (under $1 rule)?
Perhaps. Assuming it is not a fraud, it this a good deal at under $1?
Yes. Acetrader just added more of PRZ at $0.77 today.

Market will take a rest soon.
Don't go shopping now - wait for the 07' sale.

BTYH: spin-off

2007-02-06T22:13:00.000-05:00

I feel I am at about 60% of my usual self.
Still having hard time eating solid food but slowly gainning strength back. I need to quickly get to the point where I will be able to do some excercises. Spending too much time in bed can not be good for anyone. Thank god for pain medications available today.

The truth is that I did not really appreciate the underlying business of Paincare (PRZ). I simply saw the value and made money on it. The fact that PRZ somehow has to continue "Paincare" services to individuals in order to continue making money - did not sit well with me. Think about it for a moment: why would any business send customers away quickly, voluntarily? The more pain you have, the better business it is for me. Well, I may be getting a little out of line here. But, now that I have constant pain for a while, I appreciate "Pain Management". Hold onto your PRZ shares. We will make our double in a year or so.

Here is the news on BTYH:
On February 1, 2007, Bad Toys Holdings, Inc. distributed seventy-five percent (75%) of the common stock of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Southland Health Services, Inc. ("Southland"), to the Company's stockholders as a dividend (the "Spin-Off"). In the aggregate, 21,111,521 shares were distributed in the Spin-Off at a ratio of 0.9825 shares of the common stock of Southland for each share of the Company's common stock issued and outstanding as of the record date of January 31, 2007.

The BTYH shares trading now represent only 25% of the value of Southland division. You do the math. My math tells me we are doing just fine. The bare minimum price of Southland shares will be $1 but I would not be surprised if it is well above that. Hold on guys.

As I have said before, this is not the time to buy shares. Let's wait for better entry point in a few weeks. In the mean time, we need to look for targets and study them carefully. Here is the list I am currently working on:
IRBT / SFUN / ASFI / MTLK / JDSU / LVLT
You may look into some of these and send me your thoughts.
I am willing to enter a position if above stocks get 10-20% discount from current price.

I'm back again

2007-02-05T16:11:00.000-05:00

Hello, everyone.
I am back from two (2) surgeries last week. First, doctors inserted a tube into my kidney to drain it. Then, doctors had to remove the stent they put in place two months ago (this is done through your penis). The bottom line: I survived both and I feel OK so far.

Just so you know, I have not had a decent meal in the last 10 days. The 5 days I was in the hospital, I could not even have a drink of water (due to surgery). I am still on a strong pain medication all day. I am barely walking stright at this point. I will need a few days to regain some strength. I was very touched by some of your comments from the last blog. Thank you.

Since I can not sit for any length of time (there's a hole in my back), I am going to be quick and to the point. I will only tell you what you need to know now - further analysis will follow.

PRZ: Down 11% to $0.84 today. I know some of you are getting nervous - don't be. I know the value of PRZ better than most. PRZ is worth $2. My cost was $1.01 and I will add to it if this goes down any further. The truth is, you should be happy that you get a chance to buy this on the cheap. Remember, we bought this near $1 and sold it near $2 in two months, last time.

BTYH: The company has completed a spin-off. It is now trading without the value of Southland division. We should be getting the new stock in our brokerage statement soon. However, it will take some time before this new stock acquires a new symbol and trade in Nasdaq. So hold onto your shares - we did not get a chance to get out before the spin-off. Well, we will wait for the new shares to trade before deciding to sell.

IDWD: No news. Absolutely no news from the company. Without the updates from the company, some investors will try to bail out. This is why I always said IDWD is the most risky stock in our portfolio. Remember, recently, I bought more IDWD at $0.41 and I will be holding this until we know what's going on.

Even technology leaders like google (GOOG) is falling without any reason these days. When a leader is looking weak, the whole group will suffer. Market will be very weak in coming months. Most of our holdings will move on its own stories. If you do not see me every trading day, please do not worry. For the next week or two, I will be going in and out of the hospital for follow ups.
Thank you again for your concerns.

I am going in

2007-01-30T11:12:00.000-05:00

The surgery to insert a tube into my kidney will be done either today or tomorrow. I will be checking into the hospital this afternoon. Obviously, I am not too happy about this. Wish me luck guys.

Tomorrow, the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged. This is widely expected. None event.

I will be back before you know it.

My cancer update

2007-01-29T21:08:00.000-05:00

Phone rang.
It was my urologist. He received results from my previous tests. Remember, I was having constant pains. Well, guess what. I am going to need additional surgeries. My left kidney is not functioning at all. Not too long ago, doctors inserted a stent in my ureter to help drain the kidney but it did not work. Now, doctors need to insert a tube into my kidney to drain it. This means I will need to carry a "bag" to collect urine that will be drained from the kidney itself. All I am going to say is this: " This better be temporary". Once again, I will need prayers from you (especially from those who are close to "you know who").

Although the exact date has not been set, I am sure it will be any day now. At least I know why I had so much pain. God is really testing me this time. As always, I will take it like a man.

The market is showing obvious weakness. This is not the time for aggressively buying high beta stocks. We need some more weakness to confirm the down trend. The market could actually jump up from here too. But even if it does, it won't last. We need to rest before going again.

Quick Recap

2007-01-29T08:22:00.000-05:00

My weekend was a chellenging one.
Pain killers every 4-6 hours. I have absolutely no appetite. I have pain coming from places I don't even know. Just so you know, I now weight 128 pounds.

For the first time, I feel like a cancer patient.

Emotionally, I am still doing OK. I am still happy and greatful for what I have. And believe me, I am glad that I can still type and my laptop has wi-fi capability. Below, I will write a quick comment on the stocks we carry in our portfolio: I hope this helps.

RICK: This is our favorite. The last price swing was the last chance for anyone to get on board at bargain prices. Chances are, RICK will go onto an all time high this year. Buy.

BTYH: This is the last week before the spin-off. I am expecting 50%+ move during the next few sessions. As I have said before, I am not too crazy about the ambulance business. I am looking to exit with quick, short gains.

MIDS: We have been slowly accumulating this one. MIDS is one of my hidden joker. I do expect this to move up substantially in coming months. If you still do not own MIDS, I suggest you start now. $1 and below will be a history soon.

UTK: Either this is a bargain or this is a fraud. I don't think this is a fraud. The business on fire. Investors have to regain the confidence in management. I feel this is a terrific risk/reward play. Infact, if this goes above $12.50 we will be buying more!

AUTO: I can not explain it. Revenue and profit keeps moving up. The stock price has not. I have no problem holding the shares as long as business is good. Actually, this is the best type of situation I am looking for. Sooner or later, stock prices always reflect the underlying business. Buy.

CMGI: When I was selling XMSR recently, I also considered selling CMGI. I changed my mind. I am willing to hold this through the down turn because I think CMGI will come alive in 2007.

GDX: In 2007, you want to have at least some gold exposure in your portfolio. There are just too many good reasons to own some gold related assets. Among them, GDX is offers the best bang for a buck. If you expect gold price to move substantially higher, GG is your best bet.

QID: I think there's a better chance of downward move in coming months than upward move in stocks in general. QID is a good insurance for your portfolio.

NTE: Not too may companies are expanding production capacity for future expected orders. NTE is well positioned to be the low cost producer in this arena. We have already received fat, juicy dividends in the last two quarters. Eventhough the dividend was reduced by nearly a half (to fund the expansion), NTE still offers over 5%+ annual dividend. Keeper.

PRZ: Regular followers made handsome profit with this one last year. We will do it again this year. This one is similar to BTYH story. I am not crazy about the business - I just know a value when I see one. Get it near $1 and wait please.

IDWD: This crazy horse is running everywhere. But if you know how to buy and sell, you can make some decent $ with stocks like this. IDWD was one of the top three profit makers for our portfolio last year. As you know, I just added some more at $0.41 recently. Let's wait for some news from the company.

Hope this quick note helps.

Smart doctor

2007-01-26T14:22:00.000-05:00

Most of you know that I am from a family of doctors. My dad, grand father, uncle, cousin and even my best friends are doctors. Although I have great respect for doctors in general, I could never be a doctor myself. I just can not be around all that sick people, many of whom you know you can not help.

My experience tells me that many doctors are not as smart as most people would think. Especially when it comes to the field of finance, doctors are in trouable. The smart ones quickly allow professionals to take care of their finance. The real smart ones actually study the market themselves (we all know that one thing they can do well is to "study").

"Gus" from stockton is one such individual.
I don't know how he found my blog but he is one of few followers that actually make more money ($) than yours truly. And I am happy for him. Here's his latest comment:

"Wish you feel better soon and write your blogs for a long time. Following your blogs I shorted AXR 500 shares at 119 and another 500 shares at 129 And they are already making $ 30,000. Also bought 2000 shares of QID at 49.45 and they are making $ 8,000. Get well soon and I want to pay for you and your family's steak dinner by credit card from stockton. Just tell the resturaunt to call me for credit card authorization. Gus. 10:02 PM"

Thank you Gus.
Happy New Year to you too.
I am sure one day you will get your chance to buy me a juicy steak!

Bonus advise: If I were you, I would start to accumulate shares of MIDS starting now. This is a low priced, early stage, speculative play so please use only your speculative dollars. Use limit orders only and accumulate it under $1 if possible. Please look at the chart yourself and place only "limit" orders. Something tells me you will end up buying me more than a steak!

Kidney pain

2007-01-25T19:15:00.000-05:00

I have spent all day at the hospital.
My kidney pain is getting worse and my urologist decided to perform detailed tests to get to the bottom of this situation. I am on the pain medication almost 24 hours a day. This is not the way to spend an otherwise beautiful day.

Regarding the market, stocks look tired as well.
We are in the middle of massive earnings season and so far, companies are reporting beautiful numbers. The problem is, we all expected that. An exception was Ebay: it really performed better than investors expected. 2007 will be a good year for ebay. We may jump into this when prices settle down (anywhere near $30 looks fair to me).

The ex-dividend date has been set for BTYH.
February 2nd is the last day the stock will trade with the dividend shares attached. As per my last message, I am looking to sell half of my position in BTYH before the spin-off. I just wish I can get much better price for this (mid to high one's).

When I sold my XMSR shares at $15.85 last Friday, I was a bit upset with the low price I got. Guess what - it is now trading at $14. Nice move indeed.

Once again, excuse me until I feel better.
I may not be able to write everyday. I am in pain guys ...
Wishing you a healthy new year.

Sold: XMSR

2007-01-23T19:24:00.000-05:00

I have not been well the last few days.
The long trip and my chemo therapy is obviously taking a toll on my body. My last communication was on last Thursday. Please excuse me until I get back to myself again. Right now, I am on a pain medication called Percocett (awsome drug I might add). Tomorrow I am scheduled to see my Urologist - the stent that was placed in my kidney is giving me pain as well. Let's just say that I am not feeling too hot lately ...

Everyone is interested in my views on BTYH.
This is my game plan: Since this stock became the largest in size in our portfolio, I will be trimming back soon. I will be selling about half of my position in January before the actual spin-off. I am hoping to get mid to high dollar range for this sale. After the spin-off, I feel that the stock will fall in price before resuming again. Another words, we can get better price later. Most of you will be able to sell this with near double - so let's not get greedy. There is only one comparable public stock: Rural Metro (RURL). Although current PE number is shown as 110x, the forward PE is only 12x at current price. As you know, the forward PE is what's most important. Anyway, the bottom line is this: I am not crazy about ambulance business. Let's get our quick profit and move on for better growth story.

GDX is getting major attention from the investors. I think gold is setting itself up for another move toward a new high. As I have said before, Gold (GDX) has a place in anyone's porfolio. If you prefer stand-alone mining stock I would suggest GG or KGC.

If anyone wish me to talk more about a specific stock in our portfolio, please use the comment section below. I will answer all questions. I just don't have the energy to go over everyone right now. Pray for my fast recovery if you want to see my consistant views on the market.

P.S: Our recent entry into QID is working out just fine. Oh, I got out of XMSR at $15.85 after my last blog entry - nowhere near the $16.45 on Thursday but that was all I can get on Friday. But let's not get upset with +23% gain in two (2) months. We may revisit this one again ...

Buy: QID (again)

2007-01-18T23:31:00.000-05:00

Let me repeat what I said yesterday: " The market is quickly loosing its mojo". When the general market seems weak, we go and buy QID (most of my readers learned at least this much). Today, we purchased QID for the Acetrader's portfolio at $51.82/share. This is our second try to short the market. (For those of you who don't remember, we first tried this during mid-December but quickly got out - the market was still strong then). There's no guarantee that this time will be any different. I just feel that the risk/reward ratio looks fair at this time. Those of you who want in - try to buy it near my price or better. Usually, most of you can get better price than I did, since I tend to buy it early and sell it early.

I am comfortable with most of our holdings right now but I am looking for excuses to trim it down. Regarding XMSR: FCC today stated that there will be no appeal in the decision to block the merger between XMSR and SIRI. OK, OK, we get it now. Theses companies have to survive on its own. The potential $ savings from the merger was very, very juicy but I guess it will result in creating a hugh monopoly (oh, how I love monopoly - Microsoft is almost a monopoly). The bottom line: Due to this news, XMSR will loose interest from the investment community. As you know, I like this company even on its own. Although the price is cheap, it might get even cheaper. Our cost was $12.89 and we have a gain of +27.6% as of today's close. Let's lock in our gains and try to buy it back at better price. Sell XMSR tomorrow near $16.45

This weekend, I will try to close the accounting for the year 2006.
I am still weak from the long trip and need much rest. But let me share a secret: "Acetraders portfolio just hit an all time high today!" The recent strength from our top three holdings did it. In investing, gains and losses come in quick, short intervals followed by slow, long periods of going nowhere. As I will share it with you later but: during the first 2 weeks of 2007, we have almost same gains in our portfolio as the entire year of 2006! Nice ...

2007 is the year of the Golden (actually Red) Pig.
Just know that this only happens in a few hundred years.
This will be a fantastic year indeed : )

I'm baaack ...

2007-01-17T21:42:00.000-05:00

I am safely back in USA.
The long trip has taken some toll on me and I need some rest before resuming my usual schedule. I will keep this one short. The important thing is: you now know Acetrader is back in town!

Quick short takes:

1. Before I left, we sold our QID holding after only a few days of purchase. Anyone who did not, probably felt the pain. What happened recently (QQQQ) is the reason why we decided to sell our QID. By the way, I am now getting interested in QID again. QQQQ is loosing its mojo. I smell it. We will enter into QID soon.

2. Regular readers know that I have been accumulating BTYH as it fell with no mercy. It became my second largest holding before I left for my vacation. Guess what, it is now the largest holding in our portfolio. I will be selling some to reduce the relative size. BTYH will be moving up until the end of January. Then BTYH holders will receive spin-off shares of Southland Health Services. Just as I thought ...

3. Did you notice the +55% jump in MIDS shares today? This is another stock that we have been buying as its price was falling. This is our second largest holding now. Another story unfolding just as I had expected ... buy.

4. IDWD has fallen down to $0.40 today with no news. The shares are so cheap that I just added more shares today at $0.41/share. Remember, this is our most speculative stock. Unless you have the stomach for such shares, stay away. However, if you can afford the risk, this one is a roller coaster! We now hold 30,000 shares.

5. The FCC has rejected the possibility of XMSR and SIRI merger. Both sotcks fell on the news. So, now what? Please allow me some time to study the situation. I will come back with the answer in a few days. Hold.

The market is close to the top then the bottom.
This means the "risk" is in owning stocks rather than owning cash. Fortunately, most of our holdings have low correlation with the major market averages (this is by design). Our current top three holdings: BTYH / MIDS / RICK will not be dancing with the market (this is a good thing). I expect the market to fall in the coming months. Adjust your stock holdings accordingly.

2007 will be another good year for stocks.
It will behave very similar to the 2006 (explanation will follow soon). Basically, it will make a huge " V " during the year just like in 2006. Got it?
It's good to be back : )

Happy Holidays !

2006-12-23T15:03:00.000-05:00

Guys and gals:

This will be my last blog before leaving tomorrow morning to Japan & Korea. Our family (including Ace, my son) will spend three days in Toyko, Japan during Christmas and two weeks in Seoul, Korea. This will be a nice needed vacation for all of us.

I will be back on January 10th, 2007.
Whatever thoughts you have, please leave it in the comment section below. I will try to answer them as frequently as I can. Several stocks (in our portfolio) had given back gains lately and our yearend performance won't be as beautiful as I thought it would be. But I do feel very comfortable with our soilders looking into 2007.

Have a beautiful holiday season and may your family have a happy, healthy New Year! For your information, 2007 is the year of the "Golden Pig". Just know that this is a good karma. 2007 will bring many new, exciting ideas for you and me. Take care ...

P.S: Jo, I use GDX instead of GLD because of the leverage it provides. Although GDX has short history, if gold were to go up (we are in a multi-year gold bull market now, we are just resting a little here) GDX will go up much, much more than gold (vice versa). Similar to EXPE versus EXPEZ. I am constantly looking for leverage on my money (the main reason real estate is considered a good investment is because the leverage it provides - only 10% down). I am not interested in the "physical" gold - gold coin sellers to tell you otherwise : ) Don't listen to them and all the talk about how the world will end soon, dollar will free fall, USA will go under etc etc.
Gus, you have a wonderful holiday too!

RICK: love & hate

2006-12-22T08:31:00.000-05:00

I have one grand mother left - on my mother's side.
She is now 84 years old and still semi-active. Yesterday, we moved her into an "assisted living" facility in Long Island. Although I felt that this was a good move for her, seeing her cry made me feel uneasy. The facility was clean, professional staff was on board, serves three meals and snacks everyday. I was happy with everything except that most people in that place had some shades of Alzheimers conditions.

My granma's new roommate for instance (she says she was 82) asked us who we were about 5 times. She was like a fish. One quick turn and forgets the whole thing. Do you know why fishes can survive in a small fish bowl? Because after a quick turn, it thinks it is swimming in a new water. The fish bowl seem like an ocean to them. A new place to swim every time.

RICK just made a move yesterday: up 8% on a low volume.
Hopefully this marks the end of selling that started in mid October. The 4th quarter and year-end earnings will be released on December 28th. Investors will try to buy the stock prior to the announcement. That leaves us with only three (3) days of buying before the earnings. Let's watch. Remember, we have not sold any of our holdings in RICK yet. In fact, it is still the largest holding in our portfolio.

I know that some of you were getting worried about RICK. I mean it did had a 35-40% drop between October - December period. It was easier for me to handle this because our cost was $4.80/share. Many of you have much higher cost. For those of you, this should be a welcome time. A time to buy RICK on the cheap. The problem with most investors is that they do not understand the value of holdings.

People only look at the price they bought versus the price now.
If it happens to be higher - they are happy and feel smart.
If it happens to be lower - they get upset and try to sell.
I have no patience for such dumb people. These kinds of people should not be investing in individual stocks. They should buy mutual funds - managed by active human managers. These people should not even buy ETFs (exchange traded funds - which I prefer to mutual funds).

One person had told me "RICK is such a bullshit, low quality company that it fell 35% in such a short time, and for no good reason - I'm selling" ( by the way, RICK was $5.20 when he/she said that). Smart move, oh great one.

The truth is that RICK is not a proven, quality player yet. But then, you all knew that. This company basically buys and manages "strip clubs" (quality ones though). Not a rocket science. Still too small for the big wall street boys to enter this game (excellent!). The reason I liked RICK: 1. the CEO's vision made sense to me. 2. the price was fair. 3. business was simple. Unless there are information I am not aware of (non-public info.), I feel that the business is sound. Let's confirm it on Dec. 28th with all the pertinent financial numbers.

Just so you know, 40% price move up or down is quite "normal" for stocks in our universe. Here's an example: Do you think Apple (AAPL) is a quality company?
Let's look at the price move of Apple in 2006:

January 2006: $86.50
June 2006: $50.16
November 2006: $93.15
Today: $83.05

The move Apple made between Jan-Jun 06' is ( - 42%) then Jun-Nov 06 ( +82%) now back down to $83. Such is a life of stock investor. You now know that 40%+ moves are not only reserved for small, unproven companies. Apple with the iPod does the same thing.

Human emotion is not predictable.
One day RICK is your love, the next it is a bitch.
I am sticking with my love just a little longer until I find out the truth. The truth will be told on December 28th 2006. Merry Christmas!

Comments from you

2006-12-19T21:29:00.000-05:00

Comment #1:
You mention that over the long term stocks produce the best returns over cash, bonds and real estate. Stocks(even the lesser known names that you buy)have better liquidity than real estate. Just look at all the "for sale" signs out there! I was also wondering what you thought about shorting GROW. - Anonymous.

Reply: U.S. Global Investors, Inc. (GROW - what a great symbol) through its wholly owned subsidiaries, provides mutual fund management services. It provides investment advisory services to institutions and individuals. First of all, this is a great business to be in right now. Although price went up quickly during the last few months, and this does look over-extended (what isn't these days), I would not reccommend shorting this one. The risk/reward ratio is not good enough. At any time, a bigger money management company can easily step up and offer to buy this one. No debt, over 5X current ratio, over 50% return on assets and equity is too juicy for bigger guys. When market falls, this will too but you have so much better shorts to go after. Let's not mess with the good stock in the right business. For shorting ideas, look below.
P.S: Give at least your first name next time.

Comment #2:
Goldman Sachs ups the 12-month price target of BIDU to $128 today. Do you think it is still a good short target? How about its Jan115 puts? I also like the AXR short and can not find any shares available.-Dennis

Reply: Dennis - thank you for sharing the information with the rest of us. Although I knew this already, other readers may not have. I read a lot and I can not share all the pertinent ideas with you. So here goes my thoughts.
BIDU: Basically, Baidu.com is the Google (GOOG) of China. Sounds great so far. Due to the initial success, many investors are flocking into this company. BIDU is already trying to mimic their success in Japan as well. But people are blindly pouring money into this without thinking. See if you agree with me if I lay the big picture for you like this:
1. With all the success, this company has only $88 million in revenue
2. Current market value stands at $4 Billion dollars - what?
3. Forward PE of 67X ( compare this to Google forward PE of 34X)
4. By the way, Google is not cheap either.
5. They are moving into Japanese market (this will cost money - a lot)
6. Japan will not lay still or bend over for BIDU
7. The Real bad news - Google just arrived in China!
8. Google is hiring the best talent in China (few hundred top ones already)
9. If you were a hot engineer in China, would you work for GOOG or BIDU?
10. BIDU should worry about China, never mind Japan.
11. I will maybe (maybe) consider this at 50% off - no less
12. Now what do you think? Yes, I thought so.
Lastly, using an option is a great idea (however, Acetrader will not utilize options). If you are buying the puts, do not buy Jan. contract. Buy at least a Jun. contract at lower excerise price. I will not go into details but trust me - I have extensive experience with naked options.

AXR: This is simply too pricy. I have no idea why. This is another 50% off candidate. I will not bother with an analysis on this one. I would short this.

P.S: As per my previous blog, I have this funny feeling that the market has not hit the top yet. (we just sold our QID remember?) Which means that both BIDU and AXR might go up further from here. I would wait until the down turn is more obvious before shorting either one. I am assuming that you are not a day trader. For day traders, every day is a potential short day. By following my blog, you will see when I turn decisively negative (when I buy QID back). Do not chase just yet - Dennis ...

PPS: Dear Readers - does this kind of Q & A help you guys? Comments please...

My vacation schedule

2006-12-19T15:06:00.000-05:00

This is a good time for me to share my vacation schedule with all of you. Due to the chemo injection in me right now (pretty big needle I must say), I am not in the best of conditions (actually, it is kind of amazing that I am even up and typing at this point). But after telling you what I will be doing, hopefully I will feel much better.

My family will be leaving USA on December 24th (X-mas eve) to the "Land of Rising Sun" (Japan). We will be spending christmas in Toyko (I gotta see this) eating sashimi while watching Japanese Santa on the street. The first Santa my son "Ace" will be experiencing in his life will be a "Japanese" Santa. Great.

We will then fly over to the "Land of Morning Calm" (Korea) and stay there until January 9th. By the way, I mean the South, not North Korea OK? So many dumb (yes, stupid because half of them don't even know where Korea is on the map - so much for American education) people ask me that I have to clearify each time. Just so you know, the North Koreans are not allowed to enter USA. They do not have any diplomatic relations with the U.S.

We (Americans - yes, I am an American citizen) do not like to be friends with any country that wishes to have "Nuclear Bombs" like North Korea. But wait! The Chinese have nuclear bombs, so do India, Russia, Israel, England and even the French have them. Hmmmm, what's wrong with this picture ...

Bottom Line: I will be away from December 24th - January 10th.
I will do my best to keep up with the blog but please understand if I skip it for a few days. You have a wonderful, healthy, happy holiday season as well.

P.S: Within the next 2 weeks, both RICK and PRZ will experience big swings. It could be to the upside (I think) or it could be to the downside (smaller risk). Prepare and adjust your holdings accordingly - if you know what I mean.

Enjoy the ride

2006-12-17T20:22:00.000-05:00

I hope you all had a great weekend.
As usual, we had several guests over the weekend and also I spent quality time with my son "Ace" and my family. Tomorrow (Monday) being my scheduled chemo day, I am already feeling somewhat sick everywhere. Human body is truly amazing. I see no reason for me to feel this way except that I am not looking forward to tomorrow (besides chemo, I will be away from studying the market). Well, as I always say, "You can't have everything".

As per my previous blog, I have sold QID at $15.49 on Friday. Until recently, I felt that we have reached the high (QQQQ) for 2006 already (Nov. 22nd). The stock behavior of late, made me rethink my outlook. I feel that QQQQ has a good chance of making new highs before year end. Obviously, if I think this, I should not be holding QID at this time. Bottom line: Acetrader has sold QID for a small profit. We are still holding GDX - continue holding GDX.

As we are coming to the close of this year, I will be writing about various mistakes we have made this year. Although hindsight is always 20/20, I have made several mistakes that I really should not have. Remenber the main purpose of this blog:

"This site was designed to communicate with friends who share similar interest. The interest in the "free market". Stocks, over the long term, provide the best return on your money. More than cash, bonds and even real estate. Understand that investing is a learning process. We will learn from our mistakes and move on. This is a journey. Enjoy the ride!"

I am enjoying the ride so far - are you?

P.S: I have not sold MATK yet. The highest price on Friday was $24.44/share. I really should not penny pinch here but I will be selling it soon.

QID: Watch carefully

2006-12-15T08:20:00.000-05:00

The market made a strong move yesterday.
It looks like this will continue today (it is 8:30am now).
This obviously extended market just does not want to quit. On a closing basis, QQQQ made a one year high on November 22nd at $44.73/share. If the QQQQ moves above this number, I have no choice but to call it a short term bullish pattern. To be sure, I believe we are near the short term top. But near does not mean we are at the top.

Bottom line: There are still a lot of money in the street chasing stocks for the last minute gains. Our economy in general, is in good shape. The inflation is low and stable. The companies are in much better shape (financially) now than ever. Although stock prices are extended, it can easily get more extended. Acetrader followers: Sell QID if it hits our buy price of $51 or if QQQQ hits $44.73 which ever hits first for no loss trade. For the traders, look at the QQQQ numbers and react quickly as I have explained (QID & QLD).

Sell MATK near $25.

2006-12-14T20:55:00.000-05:00

Two days ago, I have written about MATK and in it, I have expressed some caution regarding the future of Martek. I have thought about it and this is my opinion:

1. Long-term prospect for the MATK business is valid.
2. Infant formula is 90% of the revenue and it did not grow.
3. Much anticipated "food" deals did not occur.
4. Food products represent less than 2% of revenue.
5. Recent quarterly EPS of 12 cents did not impress me.
6. Restructuring charge will impact 1Q of 2007 business.
7. Next quarter estimated EPS is only 11-14cents per share.
8. During the conference call, the new CEO did not impress me either
9. Management does not have any "deals" they are willing to share
10. Today the stock price went down - this is not a good sign
11. I am quickly loosing interest in this management.

Bottom line: I see the potential to high 20's. I do not see a major down side either. But until a "major" food deal is signed, this stock is going nowhere soon. I am taking my chips else where until I hear better news from the company. Sell MATK near $25 (even this might be a chellenge). The next few days, MATK will swing wildly. Sell it near $25. Let's look for something else.

I am not feeling too hot right now.
Let me keep this one short. Good night...

Enjoy the gift

2006-12-13T20:42:00.000-05:00

I live in a nice gated condominium complex in Bayside, New York. I must admit that I am very lucky to live in such a wonderful surroundings. From my bedroom window, I have the view of a beautifully lighted bridge as well as the view of an ocean (this view is worth between $50K-$100K in market value). The ocean side is less than 10 minute walk from my door.

I have the luxury of breathing the clean air (sea side) and drinking clean water (Culligan H2O filter). There is a brand new luxury bus right in front of our condo that goes stright into the heart of Manhattan ($5). I have the HD TV with video-on demand service in my bedroom and the living room. By the way, I have a good sized bedroom since we converted two bedrooms into one. One corner of my bedroom is my office - fully functional with Human-touch massage chair.

Let me put it to you this way, my morning commute is about 2 minutes (if I jump, I can make it in 3 seconds). So why am I telling you all this? First, I think many people enjoy looking into other people's lives - it is somewhat entertaining. Second, I want all of you to know that I am very happy with my life eventhough I am going through one of the most difficult chellenges anyone can endure (cancer is no joke).

I constantly receive many warm wishes from my "fans". I just want them to know that I am doing just fine. But don't get me wrong, I do need your encouragement from time to time (sometimes I cry by myself until I am too tired). I have never experienced "depression" in my whole life - including now. For me, it is hard to understand how a person can get "low" (depressed) in this beautiful life. If you can just stop for a second and take a closer look at your world (from a third person's point of view), I am sure you will find numerous things that are just too beautiful.

What did you do to deserve such a wonderful, loving parents? a child? or a lover? Really, what did you do to deserve being born in America instead of Ethiopia or Iraq? Trust me, you will have entire different set of problems if you were simply born in other places (which will make your current problem look like a child's play). I wonder why you were chosen to be so lucky? Why you?

I don't know.
Let's just enjoy the gift.
We have no time to be upset with ourselves or with each other.

Buy RICK now if you haven't yet.
Buy BTYH if you can wait for a while.
Buy MIDS if you dare.
Buy PRZ if you understand what value is.
Buy GDX if you have heard of supply/demand formular.

Don't buy the market at this point. All of the above are special situation issues.

P.S: Here's an info on MIDS from one of our readers:
http://www.allbusiness.com/finance-insurance/1183422-1.html
Thanks Jo.

MATK: earnings good

2006-12-12T21:31:00.001-05:00

Now that I can officially say that I have survived one year as a stage 4 colon cancer patient, I feel as though I have achieved something. You should know that many in my shoes did not make it this far. My next hurdle is making it to the end of 2007.

To most of you, this is "like" a reality show.
Actually, this-is-the reality show. I get to produce the second season for all of you. Occational comments from my audience keeps me in check. If you've been a "regular" without sending one single comment to me, shame on you. I am going to repeat this one more time: "How do I get a steak from you if I don't know who you are?" Give yourself up.

MATK just released 4th quarter earnings after the market close. As I have suspected, Martek Biosciences beat the estimated earnings (its about time). Today MATK closed at $23.36 and I think by tomorrow, the price will be close to $25/share. In addition to the shares I own in the Acetrader portfolio, I have just bought 1,000 shares in my trading account hoping that earnings would be good. I think I got it. I will be selling my trading shares tomorrow for a quick profit.

I am loosing my interest in MATK recently. Depends on how it reacts tomorrow, I might decide to issue a "sell" soon. MATK has been a slow pain in our portfolio. The management have not done their job as smoothly as I expected. In addition, I have just learned that a Korean company found DHA substitute in eggs. I will advise you more later. In the mean time, enjoy the ride.

P.S: We have sold STMP as per my last blog at $15.25/share for a small gain. I do enjoy a good fight but I do not particularly wish to fight with the U.S.Postal Services. I am out.

PPS: Our two most speculative holdings IDWD & MIDS will jump up and down with no mercy. Especially during this time (December) these will fluctuate more due to tax selling and such. Just accept the fact that these will move more than 10% on any given day with no reason. If you can not stomach such swings, get out now. One of these two can potentially go to zero. The other, can easily double to make it up though. These are wild.

Market Falls... Sell: STMP at $15.25

2006-12-11T06:16:00.000-05:00

Good morning!
It's Monday morning and I got up at 5:00am. I could not go back to sleep. Thoughts were running through my head. What kind of thoughts? I am thinking about the market (come to think of it, I wonder if it is healthy for me to be thinking about the market just as I get up in the morning, hmmm). But then again, this is why you guys come and read my stuff, right? My curse is your gain I hope (no, seriously, I do not think of this as a curse - you know I love what I do). I am just glad that with the technology we have today, I get to share my ideas with you.

Anyway, sitting on my bed at 5:15am (dark outside still), I am visualizing the stock market charts - the future version that is. What will the market do in the next 6 months? More importantly, what will each of our holdings do in the near future? The truth is that if I knew the answer, my life would be boring - very boring. So, to keep my brain stimulated, I run through the various possibilities (it is now near 6:00am). Then I decided to type. So, here it is.

Dow 30 / SP500 / NASDAQ / QQQQ will all fall from here.
This is my prediction. As most of you know, I have been a little uncomfortable with the general market for sometime ( thus the QID in our portfolio for the first time). Of course I could be wrong, but I could be right. You decide.

First, I went into my IRA (401K) and moved all money to: 10% Stock / 45% Bond / 45% Fixed. This is until we get the 10% or so discount that I am expecting from the market. Next, I looked at our portfolio. Two things you should do now:

1. Sell STMP if you have it. I just placed a Sell Limit order at $15.25/share. Since we bought it at $15.08 this will be no loss trade. To cut long story short, I don't like the fact that U.S.Postal Services is getting into the online postage action. I do not want to compete with U.S.P.S. I don't need the headach at this point. Sell.

2. Buy QID. Recently, we have bought QID in our portfolio at $51/share. This is a short term investment. Well, this will act as a hedge against our portfolio (an insurance). My target for this is $59.33/share. If I were you, I would place a sell limit order (GTC: good-till-cancel) as soon as I buy QID.

P.S: I have added more of RICK at $5.69/share on Friday. Technically, RICK looks terrible. Fundamentally, I don't know why this is so weak lately. All the information I can gather says that RICK is cheap at this point. Toward the end of December, RICK will announce yearly financial. I am going to assume that this will be good. Bottom line: Although things do not look all rosy, I am going to stick with RICK. As I have said before, unless things change fundamentally for RICK, I am going to hold this until ...

My bad: EXPEZ = $9.48

2006-12-08T21:38:00.000-05:00

Two days ago, we sold our last remaining shares of EXPEZ at $7.72/share. To be sure this represented a gain of over +72% in a few months. I have also made it clear that this was simply a valuation move and that I still liked Expedia. Another words, I wanted to buy it back again at lower price. I thought it was fairly valued. When we first bought it, it was definately undervalued.

Guess what, I was a little early.
Expedia company just announced that it will be buying back 30 million shares of its own shares! (this represents about 10% of the total company). Wait just a minute, - the company is spending about $600 million dollars to buy its own shares? They must really think it is worth much more than the current price. Of course, they could not do this when the price was much, much lower (like when we bought it). In any case, this is a fantastic news for the stock holders. Companies do not spend this kind of money without really knowing what they are doing.

Today EXPEZ price jumped to as high as $9.98/share!
Had we sold it at this price, we would have had over +110% gain on our investment. My bad. I was a little early - two days early. Bottom line: If anyone still holds EXPEZ, try to sell it at near $10/share (let me know if you do - you lucky sons of xxx, you).

By the way, you should hope that I keep making these kinds of "+70% in a few months" mistakes. I'd rather be a little early than a little late any time.

Trust me, I feel worse than any one of you.

But still --- my bad.

P.S: I will write about RICK over the weekend. (just buy it).
PPS: PRZ went as high as $1.20/share today. Do I hear anyone complaining? We bought this a few days ago at $1.01/sh. This is only the beginning.

Just read the title of my last blog - yes, I am this good.

PRZ: ready to takeoff

2006-12-07T19:56:00.000-05:00

Our recent buy PainCare (PRZ) looks like it is finally ready to make a move. A few days ago, we picked this up at $1.01/share. In fact, since November 14th, PRZ has traded near $1 every day. I was very patient this time, buying this at such a good price. Oh, you may not know how good a deal this was until sometime later. I have a feeling most of you will thank me for this again !

If you have missed the original buy alert, go back to the (11/28th) blog. Today, I have witnessed a large (100K) block buy order hitting the tape. Someone definately want to acquire PRZ at current price. People who do not understand the true value of this stock were selling and I believe most of the selling has already occured. At this point, any buying pressure will move the price upward.

I believe PRZ will move up nicely into January.
There will be some tax selling pressure in December. (Remember my last note regarding the "January effect"). PainCare is a perfect "January effect" candidate. However, I feel that buying demand will overcome tax selling in this case. Let's see.

If you haven't bought enough, do so now.

Added: MIDS at $0.60/sh Sold: EXPEZ $7.72

2006-12-06T19:55:00.000-05:00

If you recall, I have mentioned a few days ago that I predict December to be a wild swing month for stocks. 2006 so far has been a good year for stocks in general and money managers and investors are all trying to finish the year with a bang.

You should also understand the "January effect" that will influence certain stocks in the month of December of every year. Basically, any stock that fell during the year, will fall more in December because investors will want to sell it to realize the tax loss to offset the taxable gains he/she might have. This will artificially pressure stock price to fall without any regard to the value it may represent. Bottom line: Good time to pick up shares (I mean fallen shares) at discount prices.

Regular readers to my blog understand that I carry two (2) speculative stocks in my portfolio. They are IDWD and MIDS. I will comment on both tonight.

1. MIDS: Please refer to my note dated (11/7th) and read what I said. MidasTrade.com is a start up company. There is almost no information available to the general public except for the company website at http://www.midastrade.com/news2006qanda.htm . The company is in the process of hiring a public relations firm to finally start telling their story. As you know, when this happens, prices usually rise. I have done my own homework to find that its business is real, very real. I have personally talked to the principals of the major brokerage house in Korea to confirm that Midas indeed have contracts to do business with them. The firm is actually making money now. Audited financial will be provided sometime in 2007 (soon I hope). Bottom line: this was my gut pick. You simply wager your play money on this. You simply have to trust me on this. I have been slowly accumulating this and today I just added to my shares at $0.60/share. As of today Acetrader owns 30,550 shares of MIDS at $0.896 average cost. If it falls any further, I might buy one last time during December to lower my cost base. I feel that this will show its true colors in 2007. Wager only what you can afford to lose. Good luck.

2. IDWD: This baby made me so much money this year that all the shares I have (15,000 shares) are all from the profits. Prices went up during November because that was the record date for the 995ad.com dividend (spin-off). I think that some investors are selling because they are already qualified to receive the dividend shares even if they sell IDWD shares. For me, I am going to hold my shares until I hear the final news regarding the buyout at $2.35/share. Isn't it amazing that this is trading below $1 when HLS Worldwide already agreed to pay $2.35 for IDWD without the 995ad.com division? I have to witness how this unfolds. Bottom line: I am holding my shares - either a homerun or strike out.

P.S: I have sold my remaining shares of EXPEZ today as per my note yesterday. I sold it in the morning at $7.72/share which gives me a gain of +73.7%. This was a good pick. I will be jumping back in when prices are better. Busy, busy ...

Which one? (CMGI)

2006-12-05T16:40:00.000-05:00

This is the afternoon version, the morning note is below, so don't miss it. Allow me to explain the title "which one?". When investing in stocks, you need to be aware of what's out there.
Would you blindly buy the BMW without driving the Mercedes? Would you just buy Coca Cola stock without looking into Pepsi? Would you simply invest your hard earned money in Citibank stock without comparing it to the Bank of America stock? I hope not.

I am cheap when it comes to buying stocks. I am very generous when it comes to food. Let's go back to August 16th, when I first recommended XMSR (go back and read it - oh, that day I wrote both morning and afternoon versions as well). At the time, everyone loved SIRI: how Howard Stern will make a hugh difference in attracting customers to SIRI. My question was this: Yeh, but at what price? I think if you were to add both salary and stock options Howard received, it amounts to close to $1 billion dollars (5 year contract). What? You can have Howard. In any case, Acetrader bought XMSR at $11.20, same time SIRI was at $3.65. Fast forward December 5th. XMSR closed at $14.32 gain of +27.86% during the same period, SIRI closed at $3.85 gain of +5.48%. Now what do you think?

Case $2: When we bought EXPEZ, I saw three choices.
EXPE: $14.00
EXPEW: $1.51
EXPEZ: $4.36
We could have bought any of the three securities (all Expedia company) that day at above prices. Upon my analysis (details are in the past notes) I decided to buy the EXPEZ. And heres what happened as of today:
EXPE: $18.71 gain of +33.64% (not bad at all)
EXPEW: $1.90 gain of +25.83% (still good)
EXPEZ: $7.96 gain of +82.53% (now do you see?)
There are still lazy investors out there who are buying EXPE & EXPEW everyday. Either they do not know about EXPEZ or they don't understand warrants. BTW, if you think Expedia is about to fall, you should not buy any of them (obviously).

The point is this: I am doing these kinds of homework for you guys. In the process, I hope you can become better equiped investor. Knowledge is something no one can take away from you. As I have said before, you will use this skill for the rest of your life. I sincerely hope that you can take away as much as you can before I cease to be able to continue this work. The average stage IV colon cancer patients have already passed away. I am living on bonus times. Every new day is a present from god as far as I am concerned. I am very content with my life right now. My only wish is that I get to see my son "Ace" grow up into adulthood. I love Ace.

1. As per my note this morning, we bought more of CMGI today at $1.42. This brings our average cost to $1.38/share.

2. I will be selling the remaining shares of EXPEZ tomorrow. I believe we can buy this back at cheaper prices. If I were to sell it at $7.95, our gain would be +82.53% in a few months- do we have a problem with that?

P.S: If anyone beat my performance YTD using our stocks, I would love to hear from you. That's the whole point of this anyway. Use the comment section with first names. There's got to be at least one right?

Sold: IGLD @ $12 (+127%) Buy: CMGI

2006-12-05T08:15:00.000-05:00

My chemo yesterday knocked me down.
Thank you to those who sent warm messages via comment section. I really do appreciate it, especially when it comes from those who I barely know except through these pages. I feel that I am getting to know some of you, just like you probably feel that you are getting to kow me as a person, investor and as an artist.
Trust me, investing is more art than science.

Important news:

1. Acetrader sold the remaining shares of IGLD at $12. This represents a gain of +126.84% ! I sincerely hope that many of you took this advantage along with me. In fact, most of you should have better results than me, since I have been yelling about IGLD as its price went below my purchase. Some of you bought this in the $4's. My cost was $5.29
Congratulations and let's move on. (I smell many steaks from ya)
Oh, I still love IGLD. We will be buying this baby back later.

2. I finally got the news I was waiting for.
CMGI has turned the corner and is making money! If you remember, I initially bought half my usual unit on this one (at $1.33). Now I am buying the other half unit to make it a full unit in my portfolio. Something tells me that 6 months from now, this price may look ridiculous. CMGI will hit the new 52week (1 year) high price soon. Buy now. (try not to pay more than $1.50)

3. The market will become very volatile in December. Many professional money managers are trying their best to not look stupid when the year is over. Many mutual funds have less than 10% gain for the year so far. They will try to buy and sell in desparate moves to at least equal the market return (no bonus if they fail). In the end, more than half of all money managers will fail to beat the market (and can you believe that investors pay for them?)

P.S: SIRI is in trouable. This will probably affect our XMSR. Let's keep an eye on this tight.

Have a nice day : )

Performance Update 2006

2006-12-03T21:37:00.000-05:00

My surgery last Thursday went as smooth as silk.
This time around, I don't even remember when the doctors put me under. The last thing I remember: I was joking around with the doctors while lying on the surgery bed. When I woke up, I was in the recovery room already. Wow! I love these amzing drugs. When I came home, I did have some pain while urinating but as of today the pain has subsided. If you think about it, it is quite amazing what modern medicine can do today. Too bad, that we have no cure for cancer yet. Well, I guess you can't have everything.

Now here is our YTD performance in 2006:

Index NAV (1/1) NAV (12/1) Performance %

SP500 1,248.29 1,396.71 +11.89 %
Nasdaq 2,205.32 2,413.21 +9.43 %
AceTrader 1,315.32 1,874.34 +42.50 %

As noted above, these numbers are as of last Friday (December 1st, 2006). We were up more than +50% not too long ago, but some of our holdings gave back some recently. Not to worry. Even with those mishaps, our performance is in the top 1% of all professional money managers (mutual funds, hedge funds and institutions). And most importantly, this is not a hypothetical portfolio. We use real money! Our current holdings and our cost is listed below.

Stock Avg.Cost Price (12/1/06) Gain/Loss % Target
RICK $4.80 $6.79 +41.46% $10.10
BTYH $1.04 $0.60 -42.31% $2.40
MIDS $1.03 $1.10 +6.80% $2.75
AUTO $1.09 $1.07 -1.83% $2.16
IDWD $0.76 $1.17 +54.35% $2.75
UTK $13.65 $12.53 -8.21% $28.00
QID $51.00 $53.32 +4.55% $57
PRZ $1.01 $1.02 +0.99% $1.90
GDX $40.18 $41.54 +3.38% $48.00
CMGI $1.33 $1.33 +0.00% $2.45
XMSR $12.89 $14.45 +12.10% $22.50
EXPEZ $4.37 $7.57 +73.07% $9.90
STMP $15.08 $15.60 +3.45% $28.00
NTE $14.97 $16.18 +8.08% $22.00
IGLD $5.29 $11.44 +116.26% $12.00
MATK $26.42 $24.29 -8.06% $38.00
HLS - no value yet (special dividend from IDWD)

The stocks are listed by size of holdings. Another words, RICK is my largest holding in our portfolio. You will notice that the size ranking has changed quite a bit from the last update (9/4 th blog). This reflects our various recent sales to lock in profits. It is very important to be diversified in investing.

As you know, I like to keep my holding size to be about a dozen (12) stocks in our portfolio. Currently we have sixteen (16). This is too many. However, this situation won't last too long:
1. The QID holding is for short term only. As soon as it reaches the target of $57, it will be sold, pronto.
2. Sell the rest of your IGLD on Monday. I still like the company but it went up too fast and we have near +120% gain on this stock in a few months. Let's lock in the gain and wait for better entry later.
3. I will look to exit one or more positions in coming weeks.

This is not a time to be aggressive. The market seems to be tired and it looks like it wants to rest. Let's wait for better prices before buying.

P.S: Our final performance update will be at year-end. Although I will be on vacation (from 12/24/2006 - 01/09/2007) I will try to give you the final numbers. Being up +43% YTD is no small feat. Most professional money managers would die to have numbers like ours. Our most recent two buys (QID & GDX) reflect my cautious stand. Both are up nicely in a few days. Let's see how the market unfolds in December. I am very comfortable with our holdings ...

Bought: PRZ @ $1.01/sh.

2006-11-29T21:46:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow is my surgery day.
As I have shared with you, the doctors are going to enter through my penis to get to the kidney area. How does a camera, hooks, tubes all fit through my tiny pee hole is anybody's guess. I better not be pissing blood afterwards or I am going to get a bit angry. They did say that I will experience slight "burning" sensation while pissing for a few weeks. A slight burning sensation? Let's be real, when it comes to your penis, nothing feels "slight" OK?

Today we bought PRZ at $1.01/share as per my yesterday's note. Once again, I fully expect to see this investment grow rather quickly through next year. We will be exiting near $2 area, just like the last time we sold (Aug. 8th). This is a value play: the base business is worth more than the share price right now. In this regard, this is in a same situation as our BTYH.

Important lesson to remember: Never forget the stock after you make a sale. Too many investors sell a stock then forget about them until they catch it at a much higher price later in the news or something. That's when they all say "Doh!, I knew it!". The truth? No. you didn't.

Wish me luck.

P.S: Anyone regular but never send me a comment? Please use the comment section below and introduce yourself. I happened to know that there are over 700+ people who visited my site. Come on, let's at least say hi! Besides, how do I get my steak if I don't know you? Make sense? I hope there are no free loaders ... : )

Buy: PRZ once again

2006-11-28T20:40:00.000-05:00

I am very tired - spent all morning getting all types of tests at the hospital in order to get prepared for the "stent surgery" scheduled for this Thursday. I will let you know how it goes once I wake up from the anesthesia.

The last time doctors put me under, I was lying on the surgery bed (made of steel), barely big enough for me to fit in (I have no idea how the fat people fit into those beds), lying quietly under the bright lights of the multiple headlamps above (as bright as the sun), naked (realizing that all six girls in the room will see my "goods" for free - although it is not in the best of condition right now), feeling very warm (some type of warm air was being injected around me-nice idea), the last conversation I remember was, "We will take care of you Mr. Kim, now, just count backwards starting from 99". Although this was my first surgery in my entire life, I've seen enough TV to know the drill. I said "sure", and started counting, " 99, . . . ". Let's just say I don't remember getting to 98. I was gone (can you say "sayonara"?). It was nice ...

You like me telling you stories, yes?
Back to business kids. The core fans of my site will remember Paincare (PRZ). We bought it in June at $1.29 and sold it in August at $1.98 for a gain of +52% in less than 2 months! Looking back, this was a move only genius would have made. It was selling yesterday for $1.02/share. So what? you ask? Well, it is time to pick this up again for a second serving. I was actually waiting for it to go below $1 but, I decided to not wait. I am not going to pinch pennies here. So here's the scoop:

1. Go back and check 08/08/06 blog for the last comment
2. Go back a bit more to get more info on PRZ
3. PRZ near $1 is a no brainer
4. I am not crazy about this business (pain management)
5. But this is definately worth more than a buck a share
6. PRZ is selling the unprofitable ambulatory care unit
7. This sale might close within days (stock will jump)
8. Someone is buying this at $1 non-stop, hmmmm...
9. Risk/Reward is awsome!
10. We will sell this again near $2 in a few months.
11. Any questions?

I am placing limit order to buy PRZ at $1.01/share tomorrow. You just wait until I have bought my shares before jumping in OK? Do not over pay - be patient.

P.S: The QID we bought (paid $51) for Acetrader portfolio will only stay for short term. As soon as it reaches our target of between $57-$59, we will exit quickly. I hope this occurs within the next two weeks. We will however, hold our latest buy GDX for a while - no target set yet. Isn't this exciting?

Sold: IGLD @ $10.36 Bought: GDX @ $40.18

2006-11-27T20:52:00.000-05:00

As you know, I spent almost all day at the hospital.
Basically, making sure that I absolutely will need to place a "stent" in my kidney. Tests after tests ... and guess what, I do need to put the stent (small plastic tube) in my kidney. Tomorrow I will be going through some prep work prior to the actual insertion. The "D" day is this Thursday.

We have several good news to report:

1. Sold another half of IGLD at $10.36/share (gain of +95%). This has potential to go to $12 area, but the risk seem too high right now. Let's take most chips off the table for now and wait for better prices. Sell on the good news.

2. IDWD is kicking some ass! The shares are on fire as well. Anyone who took the risk to get into this, are being rewarded quite handsomely indeed. Carefully read below and decide for yourself.

ORLANDO, FL--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 27, 2006 -- IDS Worldwide, Inc. (Other OTC:IDWD.PK - News) HLS has informed IDS that it will begin a multi-media campaign featuring the world's 1st Vista(TM) compatible biometric encryption flash drives and computer mouse beginning with the Wall Street Journal this Wednesday the 29th of November, one day before Microsoft(TM) releases its new Vista(TM) operating system to government and business customers, HLS and its worldwide marketing and distribution partner Worldwide Security Acquisitions, LLC (WSA).

3. Wooo, BTYH is coming around as well. Again, read the news:

KINGSPORT, TN--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 27, 2006 -- Bad Toys Holdings, Inc. (OTC BB:BTYH.OB - News) (the "Company") announced today the filing by Southland Health Services, Inc. ("Southland") of Amendment No. 2 to Southland's Registration Statement on Form S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Southland, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, filed the aforementioned registration statement to effect the spin-off of Southland to the Company's shareholders. Larry Lunan, CEO of Bad Toys Holdings, Inc., commented, "The process of completing this spin-off has been a long and difficult journey. The Company appreciates the patience of its shareholders and continues to believe that the separation of the Company's two operating divisions will benefit each division as well as the Company's shareholders. If the registration statement is declared effective, the Company plans to give effect to the spin-off during the first quarter of 2007."
The Company's common shares have been trading with the Southland stock dividend attached since January 12, 2006. The Company will attempt to provide its shareholders with at least ten (10) days notice of the date that the Company's stock will begin trading "ex-dividend" (i.e. without the right to receive the Company's declared dividend of shares of the common stock of its wholly owned subsidiary, Southland).

4. We have decided to sell another half of our remaining shares of EXPEZ. I just placed a sell limit order at $7.70 or better. I think EXPE stock might come down with the market as well.

5. I will explain more in detail later: Acetrader just bought GDX at $40.18/share today. This is as much an insurance as for possible capital gains. Buy GDX.

Traders: A beautiful day for our short BIDU position today. This is the beginning...

P.S: The market suddenly looks nervous. And I think this is only the beginning. Please be careful buying at this time. The best vehicle for times like this are: QID (Remember, this was our lastest purchase: we are already making good $ on this) and GDX (When U.S. dollar is weak, gold related stocks are place to be).

PPS: Acetrader portfolio just hit an all time high! (update will follow).

Valuation #2: what earning?

2006-11-26T13:59:00.000-05:00

Yes, I am feeling nervous about the "stent" insertion (into my kidney) procedure next week. All things being equal, it is generally not a good idea to either put something in or take something out of your body cavity. Any surgery comes with risk. Otherwise, the hospital would not ask you to sign a waiver form; just in case.

I even chose not to circumcise my son Ace. I am a simple man. I like to keep all things as we were, if possible. I just see no reason to cut out a fold of skin on your baby's penis. By the way, it hurts. Even babies get erections, I've seen it. Anyway, I'm a little bit nervous.

Assuming you have read my "Valuation #1" piece, let me continue the thoughts. We now understand that PE & PS ratios are quick and easy methods of relative valuation. Additionally, you should now know that PE (Price Earnings) ratio of 20X, implies an internal rate of return of 5% (assuming that the earnings do not grow). As such, if you pay 10X PE, you're getting 10% and so on.

So, do stocks with low PE ratio, offer better value than high ones?
Generally yes, but it is not that simple. Otherwise we will all be rich by now investing in low PE stocks. The most important factor in looking at the PE number is knowing "which" earnings? To recap, you get the PE number by dividing: the share price (P) by the earnings per share (E). But what earnings are you talking about? If you pick up the newpaper such as the Wall Street Journal, the PE numbers are based on last 4 quarters. (Last 12 months of earnings? Who cares?).

Here's a simple question: If you were buying an investment property (2 bedroom apartment) that the tennant used to pay $1,000/mo. in rent (your earnings from this investment) to the owner (you) but the tennant will be moving out in 2 months after your purchase and worst of it all, you have no idea how long it will take to gain a new tennant (no imcome). Would you still pay the same price as if $1,000/mo, income is guaranteed? Of course not!

As far as I am concerned, the only logical earnings number is the future earnings. Next 4 quarter is sufficient but the longer we can look into the future earnings numbers, the better. Many times, you can get these estimates from Wall Street analysts or directly from the companies themselves. Knowing how "legit" these estimate number is, is more art than science. This is where your gut comes into play. If you've been following the company for a while, listening to the conference calls by the CEO, eye witnessing the new events unfold, you start to get the feel for the numbers.

This is why stocks fall like a rock when they miss the numbers.
Once I loose confidence in the management, sayonara! (translation: get lost).
There are plenty fishes in the sea. I do not need a lier, imcompetant manager or simply a looser.

Here's another rule in life: Loosers tend to be loosers, winners somehow keeps winning, complainers always find things to complain, and chances are, the majority of poor will be poor and the rich will get richer.

Let's work hard to be rich and happy OK?
It is soooo much better than poor and happy.

Sold: EXPEZ at $7.40 Buy: QID

2006-11-24T16:36:00.000-05:00

Now that the Thanksgiving is over, back to business.
By the way, most people forget that the reason we (not only Americans but Asians and other cultures as well) celerbrate Thanksgiving is to give "Thanks to god" for the good harvest we received. People worked hard all year long, sawing the seeds, watering plants, making sure pests do not harm them and finally when the fall season arrives, it is time to harvest. This is the time to collect your earnings. The happy season.

People used to pick the first and the best crops for the table designed to honor god for his blessing. I too, placed my best crops (money) for god the other day at the church. Sharing some of your harvest with the others is generally a fine idea. Give it a try.

Acetrader has decided to "harvest" some of our ripe fruits as well. We sold half of our IGLD with a +80% gain and we have also sold half of our EXPEZ with a +70% gain the other day. Most of our recent buys such as CMGI, STMP, XMSR, may fall some due to market correction but I have decided not to sell these. Especially because these are not the top holdings by size, yet.

So here's a recap:

Sell some now & buy it later at better prices:
IGLD / EXPEZ / NTE
(These are still part of our holdings)

Buy more of these now for future gains:
RICK / BTYH / UTK / AUTO
(If anyone wish to buy something now, these are it)

Hold it if u have it or get it if u don't yet:
STMP / XMSR / MATK / CMGI
(Wait a little to enter at better prices)

Accumulate for potential homerun:
IDWD / MIDS
(Keep adding to these if u dare)

I hope this helps. Happy holidays!

P.S: Please understand that I will be going in & out of the hospital everyday next week. Next Thursday is my "operation" to place a plastic tube (called stent) in my left kidney. If you don't hear from me everyday, do not be concerned (I am still alive). I will try to place at least one sentence if I have to. I know how much you wait for my communication - thanks.

PPS: For the first time in the Acetrader portfolio, we are buying QID. I have just bought QID for our portfolio at $51/share. Mentally, we are going to sell this between $57 - $59/share.

Valuation #1: EXPEZ

2006-11-23T18:39:00.000-05:00

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
By the time you read this, I assume you've already had some turkey, yams, stuffings and the works. Unfortunately for me, I could not have any of the above due to my mouth sores. As soon as my mouth gets better, I am getting me a big plate of turkey. I've lost about 4 pounds in last week. I weigh about 136 lbs now. Not good.

Urologist meeting: The doctor has decided to put in a plastic tube in my left kidney. Well, to be precise, the line that connects kidney to the bladder. Although I'll be asleep during the procedure, the idea of small camera and the tubes entering through my penis does disturb me quite a bit. But you know what? You got to do what you got to do. Thanks for the concern.

My thoughts on stock valuation:
Logically my thought process ask three step questions: 1. Purpose of investing 2. Why stocks? 3. Which stock? (all three are very important questions).

1. Purpose: There's only one purpose - to gain maxium profit with minimum risk. Understand that all investments comes with risk, whether you perceive it or not.

2. Why stocks: There are many forms of investments: Bonds. Stocks, Real Estate, Buying a business etc. Over the long term, stocks offer highest relative return on your money with highest liquidity. Buying and running a business may be more profitable but this requires much of your time and expertise. Real estates are nice (especially due to leverage) but it is not liquid and trading costs are very high. Stocks are my main vehicle for investments.

3. Which stock?: Now that we have an eye on stocks in general, which one? This is the ultimate question that I will try to answer. Since most people have no clue as to how to value the stock, let me use an easy example to illustrate this. First, understand that a stock is simply a small portion of an entire business. Thus, you can not value a stock without valuing the entire business itself. Second, realize that the only purpose of a corporation, is to generate profit. To me, profit is profit, I do not particularly care where the profit comes from as long as it is legal. Do you care if the profit comes from selling pizza or computer chips? I don't discreminate money.

Valuation methods: Follow me on this carefully - let's assume you want to buy an apartment for investment purpose. You already own a house to live in, this is simply going to be for an investment purpose. This two bedroom apartment, if you were to buy it and rent it to others, will produce $1,000/month rent income to you. So annually, this investment will produce $12,000 (1,000 x 12 months) of earnings. What are you willing to pay for this apartment (investment)? If you were to pay $120,000 then you just paid 10x earnings (P/E of 10). If someone pays $240,000 for this apartment, then he just paid 20x earnings (P/E of 20). Do you now understand the PE concept? Where ever you live, if you're paying rent, calculate to see how much PE your apartment is going for.

BTW, if you pay 20X earnings for above example, you just invested $240,000 for this apartment while getting $12,000 of annual income, which comes to 5% return on your money. For simplicity, we are not including other expenses of owning an apatment and we are assuming you paid it in cash (no mortgage). 5% in a year? You can almost get that in your bank CD without the hassel of buying a property. Would you really buy this apartment for $240,000 as an investment? Now you know why the prices of real estates will be heading down.

Autually, there are many reasons why I might pay $240,000 for above partment. 1. If I thought that the rent will go up 20% to $1,200/mo. next year and to $1,400 the year after, I don't mind paying 20X current earnings. I am actually paying 14X next year earnings (not bad). 2. The rent might not go up next year, but you happened to know that there will be buyers who are willing to pay maybe $275,000 - $285,000 next year (high demand). 3. You knew that there will be a new shopping mall being built near your apartment within the next few years. There are many more possible reasons as you can see.

Price-to Sales: Now that you know the PE concept, please always look for the PS ratio. This is very simple - if the business generated 1 million in sales last year, while the company is selling for 1 million, then PS ratio is 1X sales. Why is PS ratio relevant? Accounts can easily play with the earnings numbers (legally of course) but no one can fudge the sales numbers (I mean legally). Besides, I never wish to invest in a business that sales are going down. You can simply fire employees to save cost and raise the earnings short term, but you can not suddenly raise sales unless you have a new product or services. I always look at the relative PS numbers.

Historically, stocks commend about 17X-20X PE (on average) and you want no more than 1.5X -2.0X PS unless it is in a special situation where sales are growing much faster than other companies.

Example: RICK
Sales: $26M (06'E) $15M (05'A) $14M (04'A)
EPS: 2006 estimate: $0.50-$0.55 (year ending Dec.)

Bottom line: RICK is now going for about 13X PE and about 1.5X PS. For a company growing this fast, this valuation seem quite fair. RICK's growing curve is just now beginning. As the stock price get higher, they can afford to aquire more businesses, easier. More importantly, almost no institutions have joined RICK yet. Once this company grows to $100 million mark, many will try to jump in. That's when we intend to sell. Hold on tight to your shares.

This series will continue...

Traders: BIDU short was quick and sweet. I still hold half of BIDU shorts. The market is really near the short term top. Trade with down side bias...

P.S: Acetrader sold half of EXPEZ at $7.4/share (gain of +70% from our buy). Did you notice the high volume Wednesday? I intend to buy it back at $6.4 or so. Besides EXPEZ grew to be the top three holding in the portfolio - a little trimming don't hurt.

Sold: IGLD $9.50/sh

2006-11-21T21:31:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow morning, I will be meeting with the urologist.
Plain and simple; wish me major luck.
It doesn't help anyone if I am lying in the hospital with needles sticking out of me. For one reason or another, god has chosen this road for me to travel. And guess what, I will gladly walk this line until I am absolutely down and out. You know me by now - it's not that easy to put me down. And this is all I have to say, " Let's get it on!"

IDWD: This one is on fire lately. The buying pressure will persist at least until next week. Here's latest:
ORLANDO, FL--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 21, 2006 -- IDS Worldwide, Inc. (Other OTC:IDWD.PK - News) HLS has informed IDS that it will proceed with the tender offer of $2.35 per share for the outstanding shares of IDS common stock following the completion of the spin-off of IDS 995ad.com division. IDS 995ad.com division is a separate asset that is not part of the HLS $2.35 cash buyout of IDS common shares. IDS has received numerous requests to issue the following clarification. Investors purchasing IDS common shares at this time still qualify for both the $2.35 per IDS common share and the 995ad.com spin-off shares.

IGLD: Acetrader sold half of our holdings at $9.50/share (up +80% from our buy). For now, I expect to sell the other half at near $12, next year sometime. However, this needs to take a breather soon too. If it falls too much, I am ready to buy more too.

STMP: Nice jump in price today. A new coverage on Stamp.com was initiated by the First Albany. More coverage is good for us. I feel some of you did not get this one yet. Try your best to own the portfolio instead of buying just one or two that you like.

Traders: Since I will be in the hospital tomorrow, I won't be trading. But, I did short BIDU near the close at $115.97/share. If it move higher, and it might, I will short some more. I expect this to fall by at least $5 or so. Just so you know, BIDU is the Google of China. It is a very promising stock that I think is ready to take a rest. Google jumped today and this followed - and I was watching it and shorted it. Take a look.

P.S: Despite my sell advise, I know that some of you might decide to hold on to IGLD. You may be right or wrong, but know this: "Diversification is the only sure way to success". I say this because many of you only hold some of our shares. Acetraders portfolio never holds more than a dozen or so stocks. Most money managers show a portfolio of 50+ stocks (that's stupid) and they don't even actually own them (crazy). We are very real and copyable. That was the main attraction, wasn't it?

PPS: EXPE has been going up in a hurry and it looks a bit tired. Although this is nowhere near the eventual top, I think it will take a rest too. If you so dare, take some profit on EXPEZ and buy it back later. For most of you, just hold (don't be fancy). EXPEZ will go beyond $10 mark next year.

SELL: IGLD

2006-11-20T20:41:00.000-05:00

Pardon me but I was in pain last weekend.
Actually, I was under very strong pain-killers 24 hours a day. Nowadays these pain-killers are so good that not only do they stop the pain, it actually makes you feel pretty good. Anyway, I will be meeting my new "Urologist" this Wednesday. I really hope that I will not need additional surgery. Currently, I may have problem with my left kidney. Right now, I feel like I just received a kidney-punch. You know what I mean.

Several news regarding our holdings:

IGLD: Sell at least half (50-66%) of your shares if you have near a double (more than +75%). No matter what, Sell at least 66% of your holdings when it goes above $10. Most of you need the diversification. Do not fall-in-love with these stocks. Getting near a double within a few months is simply the way to play this game : )

EXPEZ: Today's action proves why we did not get involved with EXPEW. Buy EXPEZ.
EXPE +1.5% / EXPEW -11.6% / EXPEZ +4.1% Nice ...

IDWD: My previous blog was titled "IDWD: time is near". What do you think that meant? That day, IDWD traded as low as $0.82/share. Today, it closed at $1.23 (+50%). And, no, I don't think it is over just yet! Read the news below:

HLS to Release Tender Offer for $2.35 per Share and Dividend Update
ORLANDO, FL--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 20, 2006 -- IDS Worldwide, Inc. (Other OTC:IDWD.PK - News) has set the record date for shareholders to qualify for the shares pertaining to the 995ad.com spin-off for November 30, 2006. To qualify shareholders must already own the shares or purchase the shares three trading days prior to November 30, 2006 to allow for the settlement of the trade (shareholders should note that November 23, 2006 will not count as a settlement day). IDS will determine through information provided by the company transfer agent to compile a list of shareholders who qualify for the 995ad.com spin-off as of the aforementioned record date. HLS has informed IDS that later today it will update the tender offer for $2.35 per common share of IDS and the previously issued dividend

Traders: Very successful short trade with ICE today. I also got out of FLML short position. Right at the close, I bought some QID for tomorrow. Yes, my defination of short-term in this case means "days". I try to short very liquid, very successful stock that has been streached to the upside. Therefore, most of my short candidates are very good stocks for the long-hold. Do not get confused. I only share this info with you so that you can study what I did & why I did it. If you so care.

P.S: Wait for the "Thanksgiving" special blog from me in the next few days. I will share with you how I value stocks. I will tell you what to look for. This will be a series of sorts.

PPS: Visit 995ad.com : IDWD owns it.

IDWD: time is near

2006-11-16T18:57:00.000-05:00

One of our holding IDWD has issued an update: 1. Reagarding the spin-off of its 995ad.c0m division and 2. Buyout offer from HLS for $2.35/share. The actual news is printed below:

IDS to Announce Record Date for Qualification of 995ad.com Spin-Off:
ORLANDO, FL--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 16, 2006 -- IDS Worldwide, Inc. (Other OTC:IDWD.PK - News) has been informed by HLS Worldwide that the company will update IDS common stockholders of record on Monday, November 20, 2006 the proposed timing regarding the anticipated trade date of the dividend and the beginning of the tender offer for IDS common shares for $2.35 per share. IDS also plans to release Monday the record date for shareholders to qualify for the shares pertaining to the 995ad.com spin-off.

The stock has traded between $0.82 to $1.01 today with volume of about 481,000 shares. Since the news came out late in the afternoon (after 3pm), I expect the shares to continue moving up tomorrow. I have no idea when or how things will unfold but I feel that the risk/reward ratio was fair enough to wager on this bet. This stock has been a roller coaster trading between $0.10 - $1.80 within the last 12 months. The fact that they are in talks with Tyco (TYC) a $60 billion dollar company regarding a joint venture, I am getting warmed up to the idea that IDWD may indeed be real! Still there are many that do not believe in this story. That's the reason IDWD is trading near $1 instead of $2.

I always wanted to wager on a long shot. We can afford maybe 10% of our capital to such dares. Luckily for me, IDWD has provided so much gains that I am really not risking any of my own capital anymore. This is also the reason why I am slowly accumulating MIDS. This may seem like a long shot for most people but I believe that MIDS will become a real player connecting the investors between Korea and USA.

Traders: This was a good day for me shorting ICE & NDAQ. FLML short is not working out yet. Maybe in a day or two it will. Keep trading with the idea that down side risk is now greater than the up side. Try not to hold much of a position over night.

Market too strong

2006-11-15T18:58:00.000-05:00

The market is acting too strong.
Many of our holdings are benefiting as well.

XMSR is up +6.2% to $14.85
IGLD is up +4.4% to $8.65
EXPEZ is up +8.4% to $6.84
RICK is up +3.3% to $7.27

How do you like that? These were just today's gains. Acetrader's portfolio is moving nicely. If you are new to this site or thinking of purchasing some of our holdings, please use discretion since I expect prices to come down a little. If you have specific buy questions, please utilize the comment section below. I always answer your questions.

Since I have just finished my chemo (Monday - Wednesday, bi-weekly) I am feeling very tired. I am going to make this short. If I were you, I would go back and read the past notes in this blog if you have not had the chance to read them all. I am sure you will pick up some useful ideas.

You lucky devil, you

2006-11-14T17:40:00.000-05:00

I assume that many who follow my site were nervous about the dip RICK experienced yesterday. I immediately sent my thoughts last night that you need not worry about it and I gave you several reasons as to why. I hope today's action vindicated my advise.

RICK went down to as low as $6.25 on a volume of 187,000 shares on Monday. Since the average volume for RICK is just under 100,000 shares, this was somewhat significant. However, I thought it was not big enough to worry about. Tody, RICK went as high as $7.11 and closed at $7.04 (+12.6% from yesterday's low) on a volume of 316,000 shares! When stocks go up in double the volume, it means something. Looking back low $6's was a fantastic price, wasn't it? Just so you know, I have added 1,000 more shares at $6.69/share.

Lesson: Don't get overly concerned with our types of stocks (small caps) simply because it goes down. It could be that someone just wanted to exit the position to raise money to buy Silver Mercedes for his girlfriend this christmas! (I know people who do such stupid things - and some of RICK buyers are such individuals)...

Our last few buy are all in the positive territory as well: CMGI / STMP / NTE

UTK is also bouncing back nicely from the attack.
IGLD is dacing simply beautifuly.

Most of you do not own MIDS but let me show you my buying pattern on this: August 2006 $1.43 & $1.33 then in November $0.82 & $0.75 and I have additional buying limit order at $0.60/share. When I am done, my average cost will be around $0.80 area. You will see how this unfolds next year. Wait for the climax!

EXPEZ is teasing you right? Most of us already have nice gains on this but you are looking for more, I know. Acetrader's average cost is $4.36 (+45% gain already). Some of you are at higher or lower than me. I fully intend to get out with at least a double. I still say that we will see $10+ on this baby.

How do I have such convictions?
Almost 20 years of watching the market, you get such feelings. Although far from being perfect, my open record shows that I do OK. I will update Acetraders YTD performance soon (after all earnings are out). But I can tell you this. If Acetrader portfolio was a mutual fund, we would be in the top 1% of all money managers. Give me high-five!

You lucky devils you.
How did you find me?

Traders: I know that I have said that if QQQQ closes above $43.5 then all bets are off. Well QQQQ closed at $43.93 and I had to re-visit my trading schedules. After an extensive thought process, I have came to a final plan. Short term, I remain negative. I still say that QQQQ will visit $40-14 area before resuming its uptrend. I realize I am being stubborn, but the risk/reward ratio is too compelling for me not to have this stance. Therefore, I remain in QID instead of going QLD. Many individual stocks are due for a discount: FLML/ICE/NDAQ to name a few. The earnings season will be over soon. Watch out then.

Kidney pain: RICK

2006-11-13T21:00:00.000-05:00

I spent all day in the hospital today.
Here's the good news: My cancer cells did not grow larger.
Here's not so good news: Cancers did not die in droves either. In addition, the back pain I had this past weekend (remember I said I had some pain in the last blog) turned out that it was not my back that had a problem. CT Scan showed a blockage of the main line that leads into my left kidney. Sonogram confirmed this today as well. Basically, I have an appointment with the "Urologist" (not the kind of doctor you want to see exactly) next Wednesday to discuss what's the next step. Let's just hope that this did not occur because cancer has spread to my kidney too. This just might make me a little upset then.

The market was showing great strength.
RICK had a down day today. (RICK tends to move opposite of market). This will be one of the rare chance that you can buy RICK on the cheap:
1. The business of RICK is going very well.
2. The downside volume was not high enough to worry.
3. Slowly but surely, institutions are moving into RICK (4 now)
4. Probably some guy wanted get out for whatever reason
5. It is still Acetrader's largest holding.

Traders: Let's see how tomorrow unfolds. Anymore strength, we may have to change sides.

Ace is too young

2006-11-12T18:56:00.000-05:00

We are at the important point in the market.
This could be the new floor for the QQQQ or it could be the near term ceiling. For long term investors, this does not matter at all. If you have a stock you always wanted to buy, try to buy it when it goes down a little from here. Nothing new to add. I have had to deal with some pain during this weekend. Again, nothing new.

Tomorrow, I get to hear the result of my latest CT Scan. I am obviously expecting to hear that my cancer cells are dying in droves but I am ready to hear just about anything. Today I just realized that my son "ACE" is too young (2.5 years old) to remember me if I were to die soon. I certainly do not remember what happened when I was that age. Just so you know, I am Ace's most favorite person on this earth. I just don't know how long this will last. It would be nice if he can always recall that I was his chosen favorite.

Traders: I have QID with me over the weekend. If QQQQ closes above $43.5 then all bets are off. I tend to believe that this is not how things will unfold. QQQQ can easily go to $40-$41 area in a hurry. Most important news are already out. Any movements of stocks due to news from here is simply an excuse. Let's be patient and follow the new trend as it unfolds.

P.S: I will be in the hospital all day tomorrow. Have a nice trading day!

Quick Review.

2006-11-09T20:13:00.000-05:00

Mr. Bush got the message.
Officially, as of this afternoon, Democrats got the control of both houses. (Ouch! for Republicans). This obviously changes things. Personally, I think the Republicans deserved what they got. Time for a change indeed.

The funny part is that these days Democrats act like Repulicans and vice versa. I am a big fan of the "Blue Dogs" among the Democrats. I am not a fan of the new Speaker of the House. I don't think that the Blue Dogs like her either. However, I wish the Democrats all the best. Enough said.

Back to business: this changes things. I do not believe that investors took into account that the Democrats would have the control of both houses. This is not a disaster per se but it is definately not what WE expected. Short term, the market will go down. Remember that I said short -term.

Traders: Initiate new QID positions. If the QID is trading at a high premium (like all ady today), try shorting the QLD instead. This is what I did today.

Quick thoughts about our holdings:

RICK: Are there anyone still without RICK? Buy now.
AUTO: Nice earnings. This will move up from here. Buy.
NTE: Next month we get a fat dividend again. New buyers - wait until the market settles. December maybe? before the ex-dividend date?
XMSR: Beautiful long term hold but wait a little to add more at better prices.
EXPEZ: We may see this one in the double digits soon.
IDWD: You read the news and tell me what you think. I am playing with the house money - quite a bit of it.
STMP: This is a value play. Keep adding on dips.
MIDS: I just placed an order to buy this again. As I have said before, I will keep adding to this everytime it goes down a dime or two. In about six months to a year, you will be pleasently surprised.
UTK: I am with the management of Utek on this. Cheap.
BTYH: This became my top three holdings. I am buying.
IGLD: This will hit new high for the rest of the year.

Got milk?

The New America

2006-11-08T19:02:00.000-05:00

The mid-term election of 2006 is now over.
Wow, what a show it was. This election will have profound effect on our lives - most people simply don't care. Americans in general do not care much about politics. Do you know why? Because we are too comfortable. People in America worry more about what's on TV tonight than who will represent us in many vital issues that effects our lives. Is this acceptable to you?

More importantly, people forget that the reason we are so comfortable is because we have so many intelligent people working hard day and night for this country. Too many of us are too quick to judge our representatives (e.g: politicians are crooks) and are only good at complaining (most people who complain, did not even vote!). I really have difficult time dealing with the uneducated, lazy, disrespecful individuals.

My view is this: If you are not going to work to better our lives, stop saying negative things about people who are working hard for the rest of us.

I have been in many leadership roles in both private and business settings. One thing is clear: those who don't work, have time to complain. Make sense?

There is a group within the Democratic party called "Blue Dogs". These are the representatives who vow to be fically responsible. The membership is growing and I really like what they stand for. This group will have the power to change our lives. Please try to keep a close tap on these guys. Oh, guess what. The #3 man (women) in America, the Speaker of the House is Ms. Nancy Pelosi. I really liked what she stand for but she showed no respect toward the President Bush publically - not cool. I expect people in those high places to show better self control than the rest of us. Maybe I am asking too much. I just hate people who show no respect.

Did you know that our Defense Secretary Mr. Rumsfeld was the youngest person to hold such position at the age of 43? He is also the oldest person to hold same position in our history under Bush. Mr. Rumsfeld just resigned his post today. Democrats controlling the house is already having an effect. It is vicious.

Bottom line: Both the stock market & I liked what we saw in the mid-term election. America will be more fiscally responsible and this is good for all of us. Long term, I remain very very bullish. We're fully invested.

Traders: I am out of QID with $1 profit per share. In these types of market, you need to have quick trades. Cisco (CSCO) earnings were good after the market close. This will have positive tug on the QQQQ at the open. I still think that $43 on the QQQQ won't hold. I will jump into QID again when QQQQ jumps up.

P.S: AUTO is close to moving in a major way soon. I hope it is on the upside. Keep an eye on this. If this falls below $0.94 - sell all. If not, this is going to $2.

Election 2006: MIDS

2006-11-07T17:33:00.000-05:00

As of this writing (5:30pm), the election results are still coming in. I just came back home after the CT Scan this afternoon. Let me share with you what goes on when I go for the CT Scan. First, I have to sign a disclosure form (there could be complications you know) stating that I am aware of the various dangers. Then, I have to drink a full bottle (30-40 oz) of dye (red fluid) liquid. This will highlight various organs in my stomach. A nurse will prep me by sticking a rather large needle in my vein (ouch). Finally, I walk into the room with the hugh GE machine that look like a hugh dougnut. Once I lay down, a different nurse will hook me up to the small machine that will inject glow-in-the-dark like substance into my vein (this is called contrast). As soon as this material pumps into me, I feel hot (literally hot) in my face and between my legs. I can feel this fluid running in my veins! The scan just takes five minutes. I am done.

Listen, I am just trying to entertain you.
Back to business. As I have stated many times, I expect balance of power (Republicans control the Senate and Democrats contol the House). If not, we are in for a surprise. If Republicans end up with total sweep, stocks will probably fall. Mr. Bush however, will have a field day! As much as I like the Republican economic agenda (low taxes, pro business), I do not wish for one sided total control. So, make sure you understand the election results before going to bed tonight.

Traders: I have QID action, just in case. At this point, there are more risk on the down side than up. The market seems to price in the balance of power. Anything that disturbs this will have consequences. I am covering my butt with the QID.

Today, I had the chance to buy more of MIDS at $0.82/share. As usual, I am lowering my average cost on this. Most investors have no clue what MIDS has to offer. Many are getting too tired of waiting and some are selling. Yes! I get to buy it from them at ridiculous prices. I am in the mode of heavily accumulating MIDS shares. Sometime in 2007, this will trade at much much higher price. This information is coming from purely my gut. There are no news available to justify my bullishness on MIDS. Please commit only the money you can afford to kiss away.

For the record, MIDS is a speculative play - I have said it many times. But, I think it has potential to double, triple and even quardruple in a year. I will be buying more and more as prices fall. My ultimate wish is for MIDS to go down to a quarter, maybe? This will be exciting.

I will be following the election results closely tonight.
Don't call me. I am going to savor every minute of the coverage. To me, this is more exciting than the Worldseries. See ya tomorrow.

P.S: Traders: if the market suddenly jumps tomorrow, go short. You know what I mean.

Election 2006: IGLD

2006-11-06T21:49:00.000-05:00

Two important things are happening tomorrow.
The election of 2006 and the CT scan of my body (to see if those cancer suckers are still there and growing). Just so you know, I am too tired right now to continue typing. I will keep this short.

The market showed impressive strength today which confirms the bull market we are currently in. However, there will be dips along the way. And the dip is coming. The QQQQ probably will fail to cross $43 mark. If it fails, we will see it down to $40 area (give and take $1) before resuming the bull march.

IGLD just hit the new high for the year - and this will go up further. We now have almost a +50% gain in Internet Gold. Many of you have greater gains than I do. My average cost is $5.29 but many of you bought this near $4 area. Please re-visit 8/1/06 notes. Read what I said. It is interesting to go back in time sometimes. I know that some of you have almost +100% gain on this - congratulations!

As soon as I get the energy back, I will do a new "portfolio review" for you. Good things to those who wait. Wish me luck with my CAT-Scan tomorrow.

P.S: The election will be an non-event. The two parties will likely share the power, which is a good thing. This is why the market was having an orgasm today ...

Buy XMSR: once again

2006-11-06T09:14:00.000-05:00

XMSR just released its 3rd quarter numbers.
Let's just say it was good - very good. Some of you were second guessing me on this one for a while - well, just stop it and buy this now. My original cost was $11.20 but I will be buying more soon. This morning, XMSR is already showing $12.60 bid (+12% ouch!). Most of you will have to pay higher I guess.

Once XM goes above $14/share, it will race toward $20/share.
By the end of next year, this is what you will hear from me.

" I told you so."

Buy XMSR - it offers better value than SIRI.
I will do more detailed analysis this afternoon.
Have a beautiful day?

P.S: IGLD will see new high soon. This too had a fantastic quarter! Our boys are doing well...

UTK is cheap ...

2006-11-03T15:49:00.000-05:00

November 2005 was my surgery (saying good-bye to 12 inches of my colon) as well as my first chemo therapy for colon cancer. Now that I have about a year of "cancer patient" experience under my belt, I am semi-pro when it comes to dealing with cancer related issues. If any one of you or your loved ones need to speak to me, call me any time ( I will release my number if you ask me).

For me, what's worse than the actual chemo therapy is the anticipation of the chemo sessions. Suddenly, I feel nervous, feeling sick inside, things smell funny, and I hate needles! What's better than sex? Anticipation of having sex! Well, you get the picture.

UTK just came out with the 3rd quarter earnings. The amateurs (the general public) were disappointed with the numbers. However, I looked at the numbers in detail. Guess what. I liked what I saw. Acetrader just bought more of UTK this afternoon at the price of $12.32/share. I had to sell some of my IDWD holdings to come up with the funds immediately. I currently have about +57% gain on the IDWD shares so I feel better trading these with the fallen UTK shares.

I will do a write up on this as well as our recent buy CMGI. I just wanted you to know that I bought more of UTK at $12.32 this afternoon. Wait for additional info.

Traders: FLML looks expensive. My past short candidate AXR finally broke yesterday. If you are still short AXR, cover it soon.

6 days to Election: CMGI

2006-11-01T22:46:00.000-05:00

November is here. In 6 days, we will have an important election in the U.S. This election is vital to the Republicans because Mr. Bush would like to change a few things before ending his second term. Obviously, this will not be easy if Democrats control either the house or the senate. My feeling is that Republicans will hold their power this time around. For the market however, balance of power is better. The best senario is to have the Republicans control senate and the Democrats to control the house. This is also he most likely senario. Just vote.

CMGI: As per my last writing, my initial order for CMGI was excuted today at $1.33 per share. As I have been saying before, markets look a bit extended. Which means we might see some sort of selling pressure coming in soon. CMGI might go down a little more. If so, I am buying more. But I do not think CMGI will fall too much. This baby is heading toward the $2 level soon. Get it now. Don't penny pinch. This will likely be a big winner for us! I will be buying more if this trades between $1.10-$1.20/share. Wooo, I hope it gets there ....

Quick notes: NTE/CMGI

2006-10-31T23:47:00.000-05:00

This is going to be quick. The chemo is doing a fine job of making me feel like a zambie. Next week is my CT scan to see how my cancer cells are doing. They better not be having a party inside.

NTE: Jumped due to better than expected earnings. Actually, I was impressed more with the +5% in revenue. When valuing companies I place more weight on growing revenue than the earnings. Why? We, the financial guys and gals can easily tweak the earnings numbers. There are many accounting ways to play around with the earnings. However, you simply can not fool with the revenue (sales) numbers. The only way for you to grow revenue is to have the people buy your stuff. And the only way for the people to buy more of your stuff than before, is to improve your stuff with better prices. This is easier said than done. NTE is doing it. Nice. Short term, NTE will likely dip a bit but longer term this looks great. In December, we will receive yet another generous cash dividend ($0.38/share) while we wait for even higher prices.

UTK: Are you satisfied with the price action the last few days? I am. So far, so good.

CMGI: The day after I place a buy order, this jumps +8%. Many big investors were thinking the same thing as I did. I placed an initial order to buy it at $1.33/share. I will be patient for now. By the way, just know that this is a dream stock for the dat traders. Expect volatility with this one.

P.S: When sending me a comment, please do so in the latest article eventhough the question is related to past articles. I do not check past comments all the time. I always read current comment section below.

PPS: Election is only 7 days away. Expect wild price movements.

Review of holdings: CMGI

2006-10-31T07:28:00.000-05:00

Another round of chemo started yesterday morning.
The battle begins again. I just hope that I won't get a bad sore mouth this time. The main drug in my chemo cocktail (yes, they call it a cocktail mix of drugs) is called 5-FU and this drug targets and kills "fast growing" cells in your body. Luckily cancer cells grow more rapidly than normal cells in general but unfortunately cells in your mouth and stomach grow fast too. Oh, by the way, your hair cells grow fast too, that's why we loose hair during chemo. Anyway, my injection will last through this Wednesday - can't sleep very well.

Back to business:
First let me give you quick updates on our stocks and I also have a new player to introduce to ya. This new guy was my old time favorite but I managed to lose quite a bit of money. I feel it is time for me to get my deposit back. But updates first:

UTK: Acting nicely as per my previous writings. Dr.Gross (the CEO) directly owns 2 million shares out of about 9 million total shares (that's about 22% of the entire company). During the entire 2006, none of the insiders (including the CEO) sold any of UTK shares they owned. Another good sign. This Friday, management will host a conference call at 10am. I trust that the CEO will do whatever possible to move up the shares. Afterall, he has all of his eggs in this one basket. From my previous meetings with him, he seemed like a stright-shooter. Let's give our CEO time to do his job. He's been doing it well.

NTE: Notice how this baby keeps going up sine the meltdown? Oh I wish I had bought more at low $11 only a month ago. Remember too that the shareholders received generous cash dividend on 10/21 as well. For the 3rd quarter, revenue was up but profits were down due to intense competition. Nothing we didn't know. Wall street expected EPS of $0.23 but it delivered $0.28/share. Not bad. The pricing power squeez will continue for a while but when everything is said and done NTE will be the survivor. Try to own this for the next few years.

MATK: The company came out with the plan to restructure in order to save expenses. Business looks solid. Waiting for more food deals. It recently announced a few new smaller deals. MATK will be moving up in the coming months. Be patient.

IGLD: Fantastic business excution so far. Go back and re-read my full analysis on this one. Seems a bit extended but looks good long term. Earnings report on 11/6. I really feel that this can trade in the double digits next year. I just love the name "Internet Gold" as well as its "Smile : ) " logo. People in the Middle East is quickly getting the hang of "Internet stuff" and IGLD is in a good position to take care of its needs. Nice.

XMSR: I know it is not pleasurable to watch prices go down from your buy point but you really need to change your mind set. If you're about to sell, you want the price to be high. If you are still in the accumulation period (which I am in - I only have half a unit on this one) you want the price to fall. Does this make sense? Oh, why then didn't I wait till it falls further before buying? Because I don't have the crystal ball with me - lost it - actually, never had it. Buy things in steps unless you really like the price. Another lesson learned? XM just signed on Porche as an exclusive provider. Last night, XM also just launched new satellite code-named XM-4. Nice.

IDWD: Too many exciting things are happening with this one. Although it is the riskiest of the bunch, it also made me quite a bit of profits along the way. I am willing to hold and wait for the POP. If you own this, sell at least half whenever it reaches a double. It is so much nicer to play with the house money : )

So who's the new player?
None other than the venerable "CMGI". I will do a write up on this one soon. Don't ask me how much this used to trade at. You don't want to know. I once bought this at over $45/share! It was a steal at the time. Oh, well. So here's the what's up:
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) finally disposed of its remaining stake in CMGI Inc. According to a Form 13G/A filed on October 23rd, Hewlett-Packard no longer owns any shares of CMGI. The computer giant owned a little more than 12.1 million shares of CMGI at the end of 2005, down from about 24.5 million shares, or a 5% stake, as of June 30th, 2005. Now that the big giant has no more shares to sell, sell, sell, we only need a little buying to move the price up. And it is already moving. It just moved above the important 200-day moving average. Buy it but again, don't chase it. Acetrader will buy this soon too.

Traders: The market is trying to pull off one last bull move before falling. I've been buying QID during the daily highs and selling it with incremental profits. Now only own NDAQ (short position) in my trading protfolio. Will be buying QID again if market shows strength and take quick profit. Get out quickly in this types of markets until clear trend unfolds.

Update #4: UTK / XMSR

2006-10-28T22:27:00.000-04:00

Wow, what a week!
One thing is for sure: Acetrader is a great learning vehicle for investors. Let me remind you, the purpose of this blog:
"This site was designed to communicate with friends who share similar interest. The interest in the "free market". Stocks, over the long term, provide the best return on your money. More than cash, bonds and even real estate. Understand that investing is a learning process. We will learn from our mistakes and move on. This is a journey. Enjoy the ride!"

I am sure above quote is familiar to all of you. I am also sure that you're all enjoying the ride. I certainly am. Below, I will express my opinion on issues regarding UTK and XMSR. Both of them were picked by me when most of the other investors were not interested in them. Thus, I was able to buy them when the asking price was low. I still believe that my initial analysis were correct. Only time will tell. Bottom line: Do not sell UTK or XMSR until I say so.

First, let me re-print a view from my friend/fellow analyst, Siyu:
Siyu LI said...
I wasn't surprised that some of their partners has questionable background, or has a questionable business. I don't think that shall be the reason to sell the stock, here is why. By the nature of their business model, they mainly deal with micro-size company - Pick Sheet, Over the counter, or start-up. Very few investors buy those stocks in anticipation of 10% - 15% annual returns - it is either 100% loss, or huge gains. This indeed, makes UTK's model more attractive - it diversifies the portfolio by making deals with a lots of those companies. So, if you believe in their business model, the real question is do they have a competent management team with good judgement, execute deals in good faith, each and every time? Well, that's your call...

Siyu obviously understands the situation. UTK provides services to those companies that do not have the capability or the means to find the right technology themselves. The real big companies have the financial resources to have their own "new business aquisition" department. For smaller companies, UTK is a good source of ideas - and they are willing to pay for it.

Here's my take on current issue with UTK. To understand this clearly, allow me to use an analogy: 1. Suppose you were an attorney 2. A client comes in 3. You find out that this potential client has questionable past business dealings that's not related to your business at hand 4. Would you accept this client (he's going to pay you) or refuse services because of his/her past?

I don't know about you but most attorneys will work with above client (as long as they can pay). Remember that we are not in the business of judging people. Basically, I do not fault UTK for having done business with people who had failed businesses previously. Let's not forget that vast majority of businesses fail rather than succeed. ( By the way, expect to have many of your stock picks fail. One stock that succeed, will cover several failed stock picks. Those who are new to investing, simply take my word for it. In time, Acetrader portfolio will prove the above. With all these pot holes, Acetrader is still up more than 40% YTD).

The real issue is whether UTK is using fair method of accounting for stocks it owns in its portfolio. Remember that UTK owns over $60 million worth of stocks in its balance sheet. This is the real issue. For public company stocks, it is easy - the last traded price. However, for those non-public company stocks, it is somewhat iffy. The UTK management states that they use conservative, fair value methods when needed. I just have to believe in the management as well as its board members and auditing accounting firms.

Within a week from now, UTK will hold public conference call session to discuss its quarterly business results. Guess what. I expect them to release a fantastic quarter. I am also sure that they will talk about current issue as well. Let me put it to you this way: I would not want to be short UTK until next week. I expect that many short sellers will try to cover (buy back shares) their share soon. If this happends, price will go up. Let's see. Hold, hold, hold.

XMSR: Some of you were scared when the price went below $10 (it went as low as $9.91). Within 2 days, the price is back up to near $12. What does this tell you? Friday, XM traded over 27 million shares in one day! Hmmmm... Somebody obviously knows something that's not public yet. Could XM be taken over? I don't believe Opra's debuit did this either. It doesn't matter. What's important is that XM is worth a lot more than the current price. I am right - they are wrong. XMSR is much better value than SIRI. You wait and see : )
Bottom line: Buy it, just don't chase it.

Update #3: UTK

2006-10-26T15:41:00.000-04:00

I just spoke with the people at Utek.
My only wish was for the company to issue an official answer to the alleged claims. I think the management was caught off-guard as well.
Please visit the company website. (see below)
1. From main page, click "investors relations"
2. On the right side, click "Fact Sheet"
3. Read them carefully.

There are just too many legit people working here for me to think that these are crooks. You investigate it for yourself.

Utek Corp.
2109 Palm AvenueTampa, FL 33605United States - Map
Phone: 813-754-4330Fax: 813-754-2383
Web Site: http://www.utekcorp.com

Update #2: UTK

2006-10-26T15:02:00.000-04:00

For your eyes, I am showing you what others are saying today.

1. Below is a copy of note posted by one of the investors today:

Just now investor relations returned my call. I asked why is UTK down? I don't see any news. They said that someone had shorted many shares of UTK and spread rumors about UTK's NAV stock price, however there is nothing to worry about. Call them yourself at (813) 754-4330. If they are busy leave them your number and they will return your call.

2. Another investor had this to say:

Once again here are the facts! UTEK invested in technology licenses of about $800,000 which were subsequently transferred to XNL for shares of its stock. UTEK cashed out of XNL close to $5 million. UTEK continues to hold about a million shares of XNL. At the current price of XNL of three dollars per share, UTEK total benefit from its technology transfers equal to about $8 million. $8 million compared to $800,000 is a significant gain and validates the technology transfer model. Anyone who argues differently is stupid!For 2006 so far,UTEK has made public that they conducted 24 technology transfers. There are close to 50 strategic alliances acknowledged.Since most of the stock received from the technology transfer is restricted from sale by one year. UTEK sells a portion of the stock after the restriction lapses equal to their original investment in acquiring technology licenses that are immediately transferred to various companies. As a result, within the next 12 months the company will generate lots of cash at least from the lapse of restriction of the stocks they hold.

Note to self: This can be one of two things.
Either this is a real buying opportunity OR this is a beginning of a melt down of Utek business. Personally, I believe in tech-transfer-for-value business model. UTK is simply acting like a broker/consultant to small tech companies. Basically, commissions are paid with restricted (for 1 year) shares of these public companies. I know that the demand for these kinds of services are hugh and Utek is one of the first companies to take care of these needs.

I, for one, believe in the Utek business model.
Let's just hope that there is no foul play here.
For now, I believe in the current CEO and my gut feeling.
Let's wait for the official news by the company itself.

P.S: STMP is up to $17.24 today. We bought this two days ago at $15.08/sh. Nice +15% move in a short time.

Emergency notice: UTK

2006-10-26T12:03:00.000-04:00

My heart dropped when I looked at my computer this morning.
As of this writing (11:58am) UTK is trading at $12.99 (down $6). The average volume is about 30,000 shares a day but so far it has traded almost 700,000 shares in just over 2 hours of trading. This is an emergency case.

Please go to the website called Sharesleuth at: www.sharesleuth.com

It says that the company UTEK (UTK) is a fraud. That the shares it owns in various companies are worth almost nothing. What's my take? I do not know the answer. There are no official news from the company itself.

The best course of action is to wait until the dust settles.

I have personally met with the CEO of UTK. My gut tells me that he is not a crook. You don't find too many crooks that have earned PH.D. But I can be wrong. This is why we need to diversify our holdings. In stock investing, diversification is key. For the Acetrader portfolio, UTK represents about 8% of the total value. This is a good size of the portfolio but not big enough to cause too much damage. The kinds of damage that you can not get out of.

I will update you on this frequently.
I am not selling my shares until I find out the truth.
You should do the same - "never panic".

P.S: Please note that the principals of the article Sharesleuth.com shorted 75,000 shares of UTK. Hmmm...

The cubes: QQQQ

2006-10-25T23:14:00.000-04:00

Regular readers know that I enjoy mountain hiking every week. There is no better way to improve your health than hiking in the mountains. Today, along with my hiking group, we went to a place called "Mohonk Reservation" in New York. A beautiful 100 year old hotel & restaurant in the middle of mountains. The view was spectacular! Some areas of mountains looked like it was on fire! The color of the leaves ranged from light yellow to deep fire reds. I sincerely hope that you can enjoy these kinds of beauty too. Soon, most of the leaves will fall to the ground, providing much needed nutrients for the trees, the cycle of life will begin once again.

Most investors look at various indices to gauge the health of the market. The Dow30 / SP500 / Nasdaq composit / Wilshire 5000 are some of the most widely followed indexes people look at. Of course I, too, look at all of them as well but do you know which index I follow most closely? It is no secret that I follow the "Cubes" (QQQQ) very closely. The cubes are consist of the top 100 Nasdaq stocks in one basket. How convenient? Basically, these are the companies that will transform the future of our lives. Allow me to name the top 10 of these guys for you:

Microsoft / Qualcomm / Apple / Google / Cisco / Starbucks / Intel / Amgen / Oracle / Comcast

All of above companies are the kinds that we all wish to own if money was no object. Actually, you can own all of them by simply owning the cubes. Where am I going with this? The big picture: QQQQ is an excellent long term investment - it will usually lead the market on the upside as well as the downside. The small picture (next few days or weeks): Cubes look to be extended, pricy, too much too soon.

Traders: I have established a short position in NDAQ at $37.4 8/share.

P.S: Hold on to all of the stocks in the Acetraders portfolio. I will let you know if any one of them is a sell candidate. Try to be patient with our investments. Step back and ask yourself "How long have I had them?" and "Am I giving this investment a fair chance to perform?" I personally do not like to sell unless the business plan has changed. Be patient.

My CEA level: STMP

2006-10-24T20:57:00.000-04:00

My oncologist, Dr. Chung at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in NY, just got married last Saturday. He is the only Korean oncologist at the hospital. Dr. Chung has impeccable record as an oncologist and that's why I chose him as my "quarterback" in the battle against colon cancer. Just so you know, I am doing quite well so far. I feel that the new drug I am taking (erbitux by Imclone Systems: IMCL) is having positive effect on my cancer cells. My current CEA (carcino embryonic antigen: tumor marker) level in my blood is 4.4 - prior to my surgery in last October, the CEA level was a whopping 130! (lower number is better).

Normally, I would have recommended Imclone (IMCL), a biotech firm as our potential investment idea but I happened know that Pfizer(PFE) is about to release a new drug that will compete directly against the erbitux. When a giant pharma like Pfizer is on your ass, you know you're in trouable - just look at the price chart of IMCL. Stay away.

Now, it's time for me to introduce our recent investment:

Stamps.com, Inc. (STMP) provides Internet-based postage solutions. Its service allows customers to buy and print United States Postal Service approved postage. The company offers PC Postage service that enables users to print information-based indicia or electronic stamps, directly onto envelopes, plain paper, or labels using ordinary laser or inkjet printers. Stamps.com also offers PhotoStamps, a form of postage that allows consumers to turn digital photos, designs, or images into valid U.S. postage.

STMP enjoys almost monopoly like status as an online postage solutions. As recently as this May, STMP traded as high as $40/share. There are two reasons why this is now selling at $15. First, potential competitor has emerged. Second, a billing problem caused lower than expected revenue in the latest quarter. I believe that both problems are not as significant a problem as many see it. In any case, I welcome these kinds of temporary mishaps by otherwise fine growth companies. We just got 60% off sale from Stamps.com.

Acetrader has bought initial position of STMP at $15.08/share. Try to add this in your portfolio slowly - there will be many chances for you to buy this at favorable prices. I just love shopping...

The general market seems way overbought. I smell a downturn sooner rather than later. So, do not chase to buy stocks. Be patient.

P.S: IDWD will come out with some positive news tomorrow. Hmmm, what could it be? This is one crazy stock for sure.

PPS: My initial position in XMSR was at $11.20/share. If this goes to $9 and change I will be a buyer yet again. Let's hope that it gets there.

19 Years under my belt: STMP

2006-10-22T21:17:00.000-04:00

Most of you probably missed it.
Last Thursday (October 19th) was 19th anniversary of the famous "Black Monday"! Which means it is also my 19th year in stock investing. How time flies ...
On black Monday (October 19, 1987) the Dow fell more than 500 points. By the way, 500 points is a big deal even today with the Dow above 12,000. Back then, the Dow was just above 2,000 ! - can you believe it? I remember watching the CNBC on TV not believing what I was watching. No away, this must be a joke, I thought. Stocks fell every second without any support - it was amazing. Oh, most people don't even remember that the day before black Monday, Dow fell 190 points! So, we are talking about over 700 points in two trading days! Trust me, I kow what pain means...

When I first started buying stocks in 1987, I bought two stocks. Seagate Technology (was bought 0ut) and Mylan Labs (MYL). My third stock purchase was Owens Corning Fiberglass (owenq). Owens Corning is becoming interesting again - that's for later. Are you at all surprised that I remember my first three stock buys 19 years ago? When it comes to stock related information, I act like the "Rainman". I remember all kinds of craps.

Fast forward 19 years.
Last Friday, a new addition was added to our Acetrader portfolio. Stamps.com (STMP) was purchased at $15.08/share. This might go down a little more from here so use your discretion. Why did I buy it if I think that it could go down further? Because I know a value when I see one. Problem is that others do not see it the way I do. They might push it down further. If that happends, I will be happy - I will be a buyer, lowering my cost.

There were two stocks that I always wanted to buy but I felt that valuation was too rich for my blood. They are: Stamps.com (STMP) and Akamai Technology (AKAM). Now, finally, I can allow myself to buy Stamps.com and hopefully soon, Akamai will give me a chance too. Both companies are wildly profitable and growing. Some analysts however, turned negative toward these lately. Good for me - good for you as well. I will have a write up tomorrow after my chemo session at the hospital. Until then, do your own homework if you care to.

Today, I was at the NFL game in New Jersey (NY Jets vs. Detroit Lions). I have never been to a NFL game in my life. I have seen college games in the stadium but never the professional NFL games. What a day I had! I really enjoyed the game - the final score was 31 to 24 NY Jets. I now understand why the tickets are all sold out for the next few years in advance ( I mean the entire stadium of 70,000 or so seats). It is really fun. I am going to put meself in the waiting list for the season tickets. Hopefully I will get the chance in a few years :)

Money talks and bullshit walks.
No finance, no romance.

Are we all on the same page now?

P.S: Some of you might have been confused about my comments regarding the XMSR in my previous blog. Please note that it was under the "Trader" section of the article. For Acetrader portfolio, it is still a buy. XMSR is giving me a chance to buy it again. I'll take it - slowly.

PPS: Due to recent new highs in IGLD, it has grown substantially in size. I have sold some to raise money for the STMP purchase. I am still very bullish on IGLD's future prospects. Sometimes, you have to manage your portfolio where you have to sell things in order to raise money for the new players. We will see above average profit in STMP in a year or two.

IDWD news

2006-10-19T17:17:00.000-04:00

The market seems nervous.
Why? Earnings are coming in but we all knew the earnings would be good anyway. It is already priced into the stocks. Next, a very important election is only few weeks away. Democrats want controlled trade policy as well as higher taxes. This would be definately bad for the market in general. The Republicans desparately want to have the control of the congress. This looks to be a challenge as well. When people are not sure of the outcome, chances are, stocks will fall. You do the math yourself.

Tonight I will be in the city (NYC) to enjoy concert run by various Korean artists. Top singers (se7en / Big Mama / Gummy / Lexy / Stony Skunk / BIGBANG ) will be in this concert and it will be a major treat for me. It is not everyday that Korean musicians come to the Madison Square Garden to perform. I'll fill you in later.

IDWD jumped to as high as $1.13/share today on positive news regarding the buyout. First, here's the news:

HLS to Move Forward With Acquisitions
ORLANDO, FL--(MARKET WIRE)--Oct 19, 2006 -- IDS Worldwide, Inc. (Other OTC:IDWD.PK - News) was informed today that HLS Executives' meetings with their legal and banking advisors were successful. HLS has informed IDS that the financing structure for the previously announced $2.35 cash buyout of the outstanding common shares of IDS Worldwide, Inc. has been completed.
IDS and HLS, after the Eid Holiday, will release definitive details and timelines pertaining to the final closing of the transaction. Each common stockholder of IDS common shares (Other OTC:IDWD.PK - News) will receive $2.35 per share cash for each share of common stock owned. IDS majority insiders are approved to receive HLS bonds and stock for their IDS common shares.

Once again, there are many who do not believe that this will occur. That's why the stock is at $1.03 instead of $2.03/share. I have told you many times that this is a potential homerun stock. At the same time, if things don't workout, shares will fall like a rock. At this point, my 20,000 shares were bought with the house money. If you read my past notes, you will see that I have taken numerous profits from IDWD already. You read the news and decide for yourself.

Yesterday, I said that GOOG will hit new all time high this year. Guess what? GOOG is up about $37 after hours trading at $457 per share! Just yesterday, it was going for $418. Nice timing on my part...

Traders: Told you yesterday that I have shorted AXR. Today it fell over $5 per share - down 7.2%. I have covered for now - too much too soon. Good chance of bouncing up before falling again. Please understand that AXR shareholders are not used to its stock falling. They are likely to act like lemmings - follow each other to fall off a cliff one by one. Another perfect timing on my part - getting lucky too often, I must say : )

XMSR fell too hard today. I went long XMSR at $11.27/share. Will take between 2.5-3.5% and I am out. I generally do not wish to hold positions overnight in my trading account unless I have to. I normally buy between 1,000 - 3,000 shares and will leave the position if I have a minimum of $1,000 gain or higher. I call this "sniper" trading.

One bullet, one kill, I am out before you know it.

Smile: IGLD

2006-10-18T22:32:00.000-04:00

Just so we are on the same page, I am having difficult time eating anything solid. The mouth sore is here again. This will last at least a week. Trust me, I know. The worst part is that I am a person who really enjoys food. I weight about 140 pounds now. I don't eat a lot but I enjoy good food. Let me put it to you this way; during college (Washington University) I was the head of my fraternity "Tekes" (TKE: the largest social fraternity in USA - President Regan was a Teke too). In addition, I was the chair for the "food commitee". Yes, my responsibility was to find good food at great prices. By the way, the commitee still meets to this date. Basically, I have been a chairman for over 15 years now. Remember our deal: Anyone who reads this blog regularly, buys food for me when we meet. I never meet with anyone without food being involved somehow.

The Dow has officially touched 12,000 level and as I expected, the market is ready to take a brief rest before resuming the up trend. My QID holdings in my trading account is becoming very profitable indeed. This will last at least a few more days. Today, I will update you on a new rising star in our portfolio: Internet Gold (IGLD). This has been hitting new highs for a while. Anyone who still does not own this yet: Woooo, I am sorry, I only told you 10 different times : )

This is why you want to own IGLD:

1. Internet Gold is the "mother" company of two different companies.
1a. Smile.Communications: International telephony business
1b. Smile.Media: IP media business in Israel

2. The company recently rebranded itself under "Smile" brand.

3. :-) this is the logo.

4. Over 20 consecutive quarters of positive net income and positive cash flow - wow.

5. Last quarter: Revenue +29% Operating Income +43%

6. Just bought controlling interest in 012-Golden Lines (this will be part of Smile.Communications)

7. Smile.Communications is now the #2 player in Israel's ISP and international telephony business.

8. Smile.Media owns the MSN of Israel - nice.

9. Mr. Eli Holtzman, the CEO of IGLD, was also the CEO of Israel's largest advertising agency and he will now focus his efforts on investors relations (most investors do not know about IGLD - but you do)

10. IGLD is a "controlled company". Shaul and Yossef Elovitch (brothers) own 12,683,135 of the 18,431,500 million shares of IGLD (this represents about 69.74% of the company and they told me that they are not selling).

Bottom Line: As the company grows and more investors get introduced to IGLD, the stock price ($7.58) will go up nicely. Most of us bought this in the $4's and $5's. We will be selling (maybe) in the $10's and $20's - it's that simple. Please visit the company website at www.igld.com

Aren't you glad that you have someone doing all the homeworks for you? And I do this in quite a detailed basis. I do deserve food when we meet OK?

Traders: I still hold QID. Took profits in shorting PCLN (shorted $40.82 covered $39.99). AKAM looks oversold (I love its business) looking to go long anytime now. Just shorted AXR - will let you now. The market will slow down a bit before jumping again.

P.S: Google (GOOG) now at $418 will go onto an all time high soon (all time high was at $475).

Motorola Q: BTYH

2006-10-16T21:15:00.000-04:00

Regular readers know that I suffered a major sore mouth about two weeks ago. Basically there is no cure for this and you simply have to wait it out until the sores heal back which takes about 10 -14 days. That was bad. I could not eat for two weeks.

Now, do you know what's worse? Can you imagine what it feels like to eat things that taste like plain paper? Chicken, beef, shrimp, you name it - they all taste like chewing white paper. Luckily, this is a temporary situation I was told. Chemo therapy does many weird things to your body. It slowly kills you. I just hope to god that those cancer cells are suffering more than I do.

Great news: Bad Toys (BTYH) just announced that it filed necessary papers to go ahead and spin-off the Southland subsidiary with the SEC. BTYH will distribute 75% of the new shares to the existing shareholders (that's us). It will keep the remaining 25% with the BTYH shares. Why is this a good news? Because I feel that the new Southland shares will fetch much higher multiple than it currently gets. Translation: Higher stock price ahead. The actual approval has not come yet but I see no reason why this will not occur. You should all know that Acetrader bought extra 10,100 shares at $0.62 on October 5th. We now own 30,100 shares.

IDWD is coming up with many good news fundamentally. However, the price has not been with the program if you know what I mean. Potential homerun candidates will do this to you. It is trying to get rid of weak hands. I will be hanging tough since I am playing with the house money at this point. We took several big profits on this one in the recent past. HOLD.

I just got my first ever PDA cell phone. The "Motorola Q" is the name. Now, I can trade stocks while I am in the hospital bed with needles sticking out here and there. I am officially dangerous. I will let you know the first stock trade excuted on my phone soon. What a technology! This is why I am so bullish on QQQQ long term.

Short term wise, I am short QQQQ now. I truly feel that the market is over extended. I do not see much gains without some pull back soon. Thus, I am bearish in the short run. Although I did not publish in this pages, I went short ICE three days ago. Shorted at $87.50 covered at $84.50 but it is now at $77.30! Ouch. Do you want my next trade idea? I am looking at three short candidates: PCLN $41.09 / OMG $58.07 / AXR $65.89 (these are closing prices).

Tomorrow, I will probably short PCLN in addition to the QID I already own.
Good luck Gus!

MidasTrade.com: MIDS

2006-10-15T15:55:00.000-04:00

Another weekend has passed.
Do you even realize that there are only 10 weekends left in this year? Next month (November) is my one year anniversary of being a "cancer" patient. This is a good sign - the average survival time for stage IV colon cancer patient is about 9.5 months. Now, officially, I am above average. Obviously, the next key date is November 2007! Wish me luck...

United States has a population of just under 300 million people. If you were to count by the number of "households" we have over 100 million households. Guess how many of these households are consist of "married" couples? Try less than half! We now have more "divorced" or "single" houses than married family households. This is a problem. A real problem for those kids. Sometimes having both a father and a mother isn't enough. If you are missing one, you are really missing a lot. The real sad part is that many of those kids do not even know what they are missing. We really need to do a better job in this regard. Let's spend more quality time with our kids: sons/daughters/cousins/nephews/neighbors and grand kids.

One of the more quiet stock in our portfolio is Midas. The truth is that there were no real news to report to you recently. Please re-visit my article dated 8/4 and 7/31 (this should help). This company is young and new (trade in the Pink sheets) so it is very difficult to get detailed info. However, I have done my own due dilligence and I feel that this offers more upside than down side. Connecting the investors between Korea and the U.S. is a big deal. Koreans love to trade. They trade a lot. And, they have the money! I have confirmed that MIDS has signed deals with the top Korean brokerage houses. Please read the latest news below:

BUENA PARK, CALIFORNIA, Oct 13, 2006 (CCNMatthews via COMTEX) -- MidasTrade.com Inc. (PINK SHEETS:MIDS) will host a conference call for shareholders and members of the financial community on Monday, October 23, 2006 at 4:00 PM EST / 1:00 PM PST. The conference call will be hosted by MidasTrade.com President, Jay Lee and will provide a corporate update on the company's activities. The company welcomes questions from the investment community, which may be sent via email to info@midastrade.com no later than Wednesday, October 18, 2006.
The business of MidasTrade and its wholly owned subsidiary Midas Securities has always centered on providing the Korean marketplace access to the U.S. stock and futures markets. In the last year, the company has expanded its business with the addition of U.S. access to Korean markets. This conference call will allow investors and shareholders to listen to a live update by Mr. Lee on company progress and its business plan for both Korea and the United States.
To join the Conference Call simply log on at www.vcall.com/IC/CEpage.asp?ID=110234 or call toll free 888-406-0474 or international dial in call (804)327-8491.

Acetrader bought MIDS back in August and we now own 8,700 shares at an average cost of $1.37/share. If I get a better feel for this, I will be buying more. Until then, let's hear what the management has to say on the 23rd of this month. It could bring on a positive news. Let me just tell you this:
Back in November 2004, MIDS went from $2.20 to $4.50 then during September 2005, MIDS went from $1.97 to $4.70 and during this June 2006, it went from $1.66 to $2.55. Do you see what I see? Any positive news will rocket this stock up quite a bit. And this time it will be different. MIDS will actually start to make money instead of mearly setting things up. Every portfolio needs a potential home run stock. In our portfolio, IDWD and MIDS fills this need. MIDS is second riskiest stock in our group. You decide.

Quick updates

2006-10-12T21:40:00.000-04:00

My chemo injection ended yesterday. After three days of non-stop chemo action, I am sometimes too tired to do anything. Yesterday and today was such days. So, excuse me until I feel better and I will be short and to the point.

As you can see, the market is on fire!
I am afraid that it is too much too soon but who's complaining? Just like our "Big Picture" story (please refer to our "Big Picture" notes), 4th quarter of 2006 will be nothing but excitement! Let's get to the juicy news first:

RICK: Damm near all time high. RICK just acquired a new 22,000sq. club in Austin, Texas (51% stake) for about $1.5 million dollars ($500,000 cash and 125,000 RICK shares). This is a great deal! Now RICK owns and operates 13 gentlemen's clubs. It is doing just what it should be doing. One of my favorite stock.

IGLD: Today, this stock hit a 52 week high! And this is going higher. Many of you bought this near $4's. Congratulations! I will write about this one soon. Don't chase it, market will take a breather I think.

IDWD: I know this is speculative but what a story! Anyone who can read, please read the latest news on this baby. It is exciting. Too many people think this story is fake. I can not confirm it personally but I am placing a wager on this. You decide for yourself.

EXPEZ: Slowly but surely, this is creeping up. It closed today at $6.30/share, most of us bought this in the $4's. Yeh! Do not worry about nay sayers out there. Keep buying, period. We will sell this in the $10's OK?

UTK: Anyone who do not own this: shame on you! Buy it now. My top three favorite holdings.

I have been "short" QQQQ last few days (for my trading account). So far, it looks like I am wrong on this. I will be holding this position for the next few days. Let's see.

P.S: This is not the time to chase a stock. Everyone is excited now about the Dow hitting new highs everyday. Wait for better prices unless I told you to get in now (like UTK). Tired already....

Gift: open the box

2006-10-10T02:31:00.000-04:00

It was the worst day at the hospital.
I arrived at Memorial Sloan just before 9 am. Quick blood test by 9:45. Then I had to wait until about 4 pm to strat my chemo injection. Most of you know the doctor had to delay my chemo for a week due to terrible sore mouth I had to deal with. Anyway, waiting for something all day takes a hugh amount of mojo out of you.

I don't feel too sexy right now.
Once again, most of you should know that I generally feel "too sexy for my shirt". I could not sleep well; the time now is about 3 am. But don't worry, by dawn, I will be back to myself again - feeling too sexy to be alive yet another day : )
The truth is that my life is full of excitement due to my condition. Let me offer you an example: I just saw the new movie "The Departed" (excellent movie - I am going to see it once more - I am thinking of several Oscars with this one) and I just suddenly felt how lucky I am living in this fabulous country, safe and orderly, ice cream in one hand, in the dead middle of afternoon, watching such a fantastic performance by people I enjoy (let me name these guys: Jack Nicholson, Matt Damon, Mark Wahlberg, Leonardo DiCaprio and it was directed by a legend, Martin Scorsese).

Gentlemen, you don't get much better than this. Right now, people are dying (being killed) in Sudan, Iraq, Afganistan, North Korea and many other places. Whether you like to admit it or not, these are our brothers and sisters. Far related but never the less RELATED. I just hear people complaining all around me. The egg was not cooked right, the movie don't start until one hour later, that car is going too slow, the temperature is a bit too cold, I need a new car, my girl friend is ugly, my boy friend is gay, my boss is an asshole, my brother is a moron and so on and so on. Do you know what I mean? One day (when I get out of this) I will have to thank god for what he/she had given me - an ability to see good things in life, an ability for me to enjoy every single day, making me realize that I don't have the time to be upset.

You know what? God gave you the same gift too.
Some of you simply forgot to open it yet. I suggest you open it soon. I know people who have lost the BOX.

MATK: Didn't I tell you a few days ago that a new revenue source will emerge? And that will make this stock to move? MATK went up as high as $24.73 (+12%) but it closed at $23.69 (+7%). Guess what, there will be more , larger food deals coming soon. Buy it and hold it please!

IDWD: In my last note, I said that there better be some good news regarding this company and that it is testing my patience. Well, someone heard my talk. There was a good news on Monday. The company said that the buyout at $2.35 will occur soon (check the news yourself at Yahoo.com/fanance). Some investors think IDWD is lying (hence the $0.87 price now), I however am willing to wager, I just bought another 5,000 shares at $0.85 per share. Thank god I had plenty of time waiting in the hospital and that they have several computers for my use. This brings my holdings to 20,000 shares and my average cost is now $0.756 - just remember that this is the riskiest stock we own. It's going to be a homerun or you're out!

Yes, I have said that the bull market is here and now. Please understand that day-traders do not add "value" to a stock fundamentally. However, they serve an important role of a "market maker" adding much needed liquidity to the market. Common stocks of a public company is more valuable than a private company stock of equal value. Why? Due to instant liquidity. It is called the "liquidity premium". Day-traders buy and sell in an instant. We can be in a bull market (long term) and have traders be shorting (short term). I am currently shorting QQQQ now (next few days only no matter what). This is why I have separate investment account (long term) and trading account (short term). It is now 4:13 am. Let me try to get some sleep.
Chemo sucks.
Take care of yourself (be happy).

Expand your lungs: RICK

2006-10-08T22:24:00.000-04:00

Did you have a good weekend?
As usual, I enjoyed a beautiful weekend myself. I went hiking in the mountain yesterday (cancer cells hate fresh oxygen you know) and also visited my brother at his work site. May I suggest you try to control your breathing at least once a day (takes about 5 minutes). What you are trying to accomplish here is to teach your lungs to take in deep breaths (thus more oxygen intake). Did you know that if you deprive cells in your body of oxygen, those cells are much more prone to turn cancerous? People who do not regularly excercise, utilize only 50% of your lung capacity. Just think of your lungs as a giant filter for your body (by the way, the liver is filter for your blood). Learn to slowly breath in deeply (as deep as you can) and let it out in a similar tempo. Repeat this for a few minutes and your body will appreciate what you just did.

In addition to taking in more oxygen, you are letting out bad (harmful) chemicals out of your system. Just know that your body produces many types of bad chemicals while digesting, fighting germs and reparing your body. The only way of letting these out is by breathing out those harmful gases. Just breath in deeply once in a while: expand your lung capacity.

The market seems to be overbought.
I am obviously bullish on the market in general but I also think that it will have to rest before resuming its uptrend. This week, many investors will try to take profits. Techs and financials look poised to go down a bit. However, let's not get confused. WE ARE OFFICIALLY IN A BULL MARKET NOW. Stocks will move much higher in the coming months. We need to be fully invested. Traders will take profits or go short.

RICK: After good news, RICK always go down a bit before going back up. This happends because shareholders base is not deep enough. Nothing to worry about. In fact, if you are a buyer, you need to welcome these events. As I have said before, I expect September quarter to be a record quarter. Get in before this moves away from ya for good.

IDWD: There better be some sort of news this week (I mean good news). It is testing my patience. You know, I am generally a very patient guy. Let's see.

AUTO: Guess what, this looks to be moving up a bit.

I will be receiving my chemo therapy tomorrow.
Good luck with your buying this week. I have more buying orders for BTYH (I will stop at 40,000 shares). Teach your lungs to take deep breaths. Chow.

Patience: RICK/XMSR/EXPEZ

2006-10-05T20:40:00.000-04:00

Patience is virtue.
As most of you know, I am an Asian-American. Growing up in america under american education system, it was quite easy for me to excell in various subjects. I was even a captain of my high school archery team. Yes, we had an archery team. One of the basic aspect of asian culture is learning to be patient. We (excluding those who were born here where they do not have asian cultures) do not talk back to elders (parents, teachers or for that matter anyone who are older than us) and we try our best to listen to the rules. We do our homeworks in time, study when we are told and generally follow the rules of our homes, schools and societies. As you know, it takes fair amount of patience to accomplish all of the above.

Why do I bring this subject matter? Because I would like to remind you of what we are trying to accomplish here. Here are bullet points ( I love bullet points):

1. Investing has no time limit. Most of us will still be investing until we are in a deathbed (we need to leave some $ for our kids and loved ones).

2. When we buy a stock, we try to own it for at least 1-2 years. Actually, I wish we never sell.

3. We only sell a stock if a. price jumps to our target price quickly b. business sours c. better opportunities for our dollars elsewhere.

4. Daily price movements should not bother us. That's the nature of the stock market. It goes up and it goes down. Generally, it goes up more than it goes down on average.

5. When things look and feel bad, you can get things for better price. If you like something, chances are other people like them too - this never results in good prices.

Please digest above facts. Stop being too emotional.
Be patient.
Now, here are relevant info regarding our holdings:

RICK: The third quarter (ending 9/30) results should be another record breaking quarter. September sales were 40% better than last year. Tomorrow, the stock might go above $9 for the first time! Now, you know why this is our largest holding.

XMSR: During the third quarter, XM only signed on 288,000 new subscribers. So, as of 9/30/2006 XM has 7.2 million subscribers vs. SIRI's 5.1 million. XM is expecting to add another 500,000 new subscribers during this last quarter to end the year at 7.7 - 8.0 million. Let's do the quick math: 8 million people x $12.95/mo fee = $103 million dollars per month revenue. Another words, $1.2 billion per year! Yes, that was billion with a "B". Just buy this now at current price OK? Do not listen to others who thinks this company will go under ( this is why XM is at $11 instead of $21). Re-read my XMSR writeup a few days ago. I will be buying more if it falls more (my cost now is at $11.20/share). I wish this goes under $10! So should you.

EXPEZ: This is a warrant. Warrant acts like a long-term call option on a stock. The warrants are used to "sweeten" the package when companies try to raise money by issuing stocks. So, companies offer warrants in addition to the stocks when selling shares. EXPEZ is a warrant that gives the holder "a right" to buy Expedia stock for "$11.56" until "2/4/2009". Warrants have two (2) values: Intrinsic value + Time value. The current intrinsic value for EXPEZ is $4.49 ($16.05 EXPE price-$11.56 contract excercise price) thus the time value is only $1.51 ($6 EXPEZ price - $4.49 intrinsic value). Bottom line: EXPEZ is too cheap! You are only paying about $1 for the right to buy EXPE stock for $11.56 anytime until February 2009! God only knows how much Expedia stock will be worth in 2009, but for EXPEZ holders, we only have to pay $11.56! Do you get it now? (most people do not). Buy this now - I mean now. Please refer to my past article dated 5/25 and 7/13 and 7/14 for more info.

IGLD: I will write about Internet Gold in detail later. For now, just know that I am moving this one up into the same group as the RICK/UTK/MATK (we may never sell). The business is fabulous. They are growing nicely. Some people agree with me, the stock is up over 50% during the last 2 months. It will go higher. Double digits in a year - that's my call.

BTYH: I just bought 10,100 share more today at $0.62 per share (Acetrader now owns 30,100 shares). I will be buying more if this falls to $0.59 - wish me luck.

OK, I am officially tired. See ya tomorrow.

Big Picture V: updates

2006-10-03T21:41:00.000-04:00

First trading day of October 2006.
We have now officially entered the 4th quarter of this year. It's time to revisit my usual "Big Picture" segments in order for us to get ready for the last ride. Here's my take on the investment environment today:

1. Stocks: we will see new highs for this year during 4th Q.

2. Interest rates: Definately no change before and probably no change after the election season (November). So, rate movements will not hurt us (Bernanke talk might).

3. Election: Republicans will keep the Senate; Congress is a toss up. Republican control will enable Mr. Bush to finish the job ( like it or not, this bull market is a direct result of Mr. Bush's economic policy of low taxes).

4. Gold/Oil: Commodities such as gold and oil has lost its mojo. Most are hitting new 52week lows. Did you know that the best time to buy gold stock is in the 4th quarter? This winter, we might finally buy into gold related issues. Stay away from these fr now.

5. Bonds: Who cares? Rates probably will come down early next year. Not a bad investment if you are looking for 5% annual returns.

And what about our portfoilios?
I will do you a favor by placing our stocks into different catagories:

* Buy now and hopefully never sell unless: RICK / UTK / MATK (be patient with these, do not try to trade these either. You must own these if you are a long term investor: our core)

* Buy now and sell it when price target is reached: XMSR / NTE / IGLD / EXPEZ (on every Performance updates, price targets are updated)

* Potential home run or we will sell it: MIDS / IDWD (you never know with these guys)

* Down but not out - double down please: BTYH (buy more near $0.60's)

* Testing my patience - near sell but not yet: AUTO (do not sell unless it closes near $0.90- $0.95 area: this has potential to jump toward $2 in a heart beat).

That's all folks.
How do you like my presentation? Did this help?
Good luck in October!

Why Acetrader?

2006-10-02T23:11:00.000-04:00

Originally intended for friends and families (and mostly for myself), Acetrader was designed to educate and communicate with people close to me and my family. Somehow the community grew to a few hundred within the last few months. As long as we learn and respect each other, I guess I see no harm in sharing information with "strangers". You will not be considered a "stranger" as long as you introduce yourself to us (through the comment section). I have had many pleasures in meeting like minded people through this blog. In fact, some have came and met with me in person (we went out, dined together and even went on hiking together for some). Please try to introduce yourself when you send me a comment for the first time (your name & where you are from is sufficient). I like to have some feeling when sending your answers. Thanks.

I like to offer my sincere gratitude to those who have prayed for me. Although I truly believe I might be the top few percent of people who may survive (defined as living 5 or more years) stage IV colon cancer, the real statistics show that over 90% die within the first five years with average survival time of about 9.5 months. Since my surgery was back in November 2005, I have offically passed the "average" survival time by 2 months! Yeh!
Yes, I am still ticking and feeling awsome.

So, in the mean time, why follow Acetrader?
Does it offer value; enough to spend about 10 minutes of your time logging in and read? Well you decide. My goal isn't to increase traffic to my site (notice I do not have google ads?). My goal is to touch someone that may be helped by my efforts. It would give me pleasure in knowing that I am helping someone. Being financially independent, should be the goal of every man and women. It is very difficult to help others when you are in need of help yourself. I also have noticed that people who are financially comfortable have more compassion toward others. Basically, they can afford it. Time, compassion, energy, will power, creativity are all connected to MONEY.

Do you know what is the biggest challenge in stock investing is?
#1. When the stock price moves up, is it time to sell or buy?
#2. When the stock goes down, is it time to load up or dump it?

Well, that's why you might want to read Acetrader.
Case in point #1: when we bought PRZ near $1 and it quickly moved near $2 within two months, I advised you to sell. It is now at $1.37
Case in point #2: our worst performer BTYH is down from $1.46 (our cost) to current $0.63/sh. I just told you (yesterday) that I am adding more at these levels (meaning - buy). How much clearer can you get?
Case in point #3: Our top holding RICK went from $4.80 (our cost) to current $8.14 in just over 6 months. What to do? I said this many times, RICK will trade in double digits soon (meaning - buy). Why would I still own 5,250 shares (which is much bigger than my usual unit) if I thought that it is fairly or over valued? Take a hint: this is our largest holding still.

The best way to follow Acetrader:
1. Decide on your unit size for one stock (Minimum should be at least $2,000 due to trading costs)
2. Among the stocks in our portfolio, pick your first few until you have all the stocks (diversify I say; but do not over diversify 12-15 is more than enough).
3. Print and Read previous notes ( this will ensure that we are on the same page)
4. Ask questions and share ideas with us.
5. Go to #1 and increase the unit size (our unit size is about 15-20K).

Answers to yesterday's questions in comment section:
1. I have no idea what "Iners" means. Please re-send.
2. QID is not illiquid for most of us. For my trading account, I trade between 1,000-3,000 shares. The average volume of QID is over 1.3 million shares per day. This is more than enough for small investors like us. We simply do not engage in "futures" period. LEAPS are more expensive than ETFs (bid/ask spread) and besides, my average time in QID is less than two days. One do not get into LEAPS for a day or two.
3. IDWD is a speculative hold. Remember, as I have said many times, this is the most risky stock we own. Having said that, we have made serious money on IDWD, moving in and out. Please read all the recent news regarding the stock. There are simply too many good things going on with this company right now. Let's give the management another week so so.
4. Jo: How are you?
5. Please go back and read my analysis on XMSR. This is a "buy" right now.

Let's get one thing clear: I will not sell or buy anything without letting you know ASAP. With some exceptions, I write almost every trading day. You will know if I thought XMSR is no good anymore. Although things can change overnight, they rarely do. Buy means buy until I say otherwise. Do not listen to too many people or news. Pick your advisors (quarterbacks) and stick with them until you feel he/she is wrong for you. Trust someone.

Bad Toys: BTYH

2006-10-01T19:27:00.000-04:00

So, I have been on pain medication for a week now.
I am basically on a liquid only diet (too much pain to chew). Drinking water is a pianful process believe it or not. But it is getting better - I should be back to "normal" by next week. As soon as I can chew and eat food, I am getting me a juicy steak & a big lobster. There is a famous steak house called " Uncle Jack's" near my house (rated five star I mind you). They know steaks. I prefer T-bone to a filet and I have to have creamed-spinich. I also prefer mashed sweet potato to a regular potato. Coffee is my favorite drink. And I always have some kind of desert. Hopefully, this will help you to know what & how I like my steaks. Hint. Hint.

The market will be taking a breather next week. It will not affect our investment portfolios all that much but for active traders, next week will present some quick trading opportunities. Volatility will return in a big way. The basic thesis has not changed: keep adding to our holdings for higher prices later.

BTYH: This has been our worst performer in the portfolio thus far. Over this weekend, I had to decide whether to hold or sell Bad Toys Holdings. Went over the financials and various news and technicals regarding this stock. And I have came down with a final conclusion: I am buying more at this price. At around $0.60 per share, it represents value. It can easily double within a year. My rules are simple: if I find an investment with potential "double" within 2-3 years, it is a buy. If it has potential to double in a year or two then, it is a "must buy". BTYH is a "must buy" then. This stock is falling because it desparately needs to refinance its debt holdings. These debts were incurred in aquiring the ambulartory business. Because this is a small company ($14 million market cap now) it is having some difficulties in getting loans with decent terms. But this will be done eventually one way or another. BTYH can always seek private financing using equity but the CEO does not wish to dilute shares using equity at these low levels (smart). Remember that the CEO, Mr. Nunan owns over a third of the company (over 8,000,000 shares) while receiving less than $80K in salary annually. So here is my final analysis:

1. I am willing to bet that Mr. Nunan will do whatever necessary to get this financing done.
2. This is a company with over $45,000,000 in sales
3. It is very profitable with EPS of $0.22/share
4. Current PE ratio is 3 (can you believe it?)
5. Shareholders equity has been going up every quarter
6. Once financing is complete, it will split into two companies
7. Worst case: the company will be sold at higher price than now
8. POSITIVE cash flow every quarter!
9. Technically, it is near the bottom.

Bottom line: I will be buying (currently Acetrader owns 20,000 shares) 10-20k shares next week to average down my cost. I will let you know when the trade excutes.

For my trading account, I have fully accumulated JNPR short position as of last Friday. I now carry 5,000 short JNPR at $17.31 and 800 of QID shares. Monday will be interesting....
Both of the above positions will be cleared within the next week. I will keep you informed.

P.S: Did you all see RICK move on Friday?

IGLD & NTE: DBC & USO

2006-09-28T16:04:00.000-04:00

I have been in pain. Major pain.
My oncologist suggested that we delay my chemo injection for a week. So next Monday I will not be receiving my usual dose. My body will definately appreciate that. My cancer buddies will definately thank me too. Let me give you one of those useless interesting info. Do you know what the word "cancer" actually mean? It's root is greek and it is a combination of two words: "crab" + "ulcer". Crabs, if you ever got bitten by one ( I have) will not let go. Even if you kill it, it still hangs on you. Crabs can't even walk normally. It is one of very few living things that walk side ways. And most importantly, crabs eat just about anything.

Cancer cells, unlike normal cells in your body, do not look pretty. It is hard, uneven shape and it just looks disgusting. It grabs all the nutrients from surrounding areas (huge appetite) and grows exponentially. It is obviously very stupid because if the host (me) dies, it dies with it. Oh, by the way, in Chinese writing the word "cancer" consist of three small words: "wrong" + "three mouth" + "mountain". Which basically means " there are as many bad mouths as there are mountains" (there are many mountains in China). All these meanings in one Chinese letter. Interesting?

These days everyone is talking about the Dow hitting all time high. News reporters are focusing on whether we will hit this today or tomorrow (as if this is so important). Just so you know, not too many people own the Dow. But if you want, you can buy DIA which will give you same performance as the Dow. I, too agree that DIA is a good investment at this point. But it is not my cup of tea.

IGLD: Those of you who owned this are sitting pretty. It is in a major uptrend now. Just crossed 200 day Moving average too. It was as high as $6.22 today. Consider this: 2 months ago, this was at $4.20

NTE: Owners of Nam Tai (as of 9/27) will be receiving cash dividend of $0.38 per each shares they own (early October). A little something (worth about 3%) for you While-U-Wait. Nice..

For those of you who could not participate in OIH trades (minimum 100 shares at $130 or so) should consider XES. This will perform just like the OIH. Keep this on your radar.

You want a pure Oil trade? Buy and sell USO.

You want a commodity basket that contains: Oil + Gold + Aluminum + wheat + Corn ? Buy and sell DBC.

Yes, I am still holding my JNPR short position (in my trading account). It did not go up enough for me to double down and I am still waiting. Remember. I am looking for 7-10% in a few trading days.
Chow.

Active Trader Pro

2006-09-27T07:48:00.000-04:00

I have a bad, real bad mouth sores.
It is so bad that I have hard time talking never mind eating anything. Swallowing my own saliva hurts. I now have those "white spots" in my throat in addition to my togue and cheeks. Such is a life of cancer fighter. The chemo therapy I am receiving may give me the sores but it is taking arm and a leg from those "bully" cancer cells (I hope). One great news: my CEA level (colon cancer marker) is now down to 4.8 (normal range is between 0-5). When I was first diagnosed with cancer last October, the CEA level was 130. This basically tells me that the drugs are working (at least for now that is).

For those who maybe interested, I use Fidelity Investments and its "Active Trader Pro" program for my trades. I pay flat $8 per trade and the services are fantastic. I strongly reccommend Fidelity. Utilizing the Active Trader Pro, I am able to see minute by minute trades (both volume and prices of individual trades). This week I will be shopping for a PDA (along with the phone service) which I can use to trade stocks through Fidelity. Imagine this, I can be sitting in my bathroom taking care of my businesses (two separate but important businesses if you know what I mean). I just love new technologies.

As per yesterday's note, my quick GDX trade yielded almost 3% gain in a few hours. I am now out of the GDX but intend to use it frequently in the future. Again, for those who are curious about my day trade activities: I am building a "Short" position in Juniper (JNPR) stock. I have shorted JNPR at $17.24 (yesterday's high) and if it goes higher I will double short again. My target is between 7-10% in a few days. Watch if you're interested.

Our invstment account is holding up well. The recent rally is concentraded among the "Super Large" stocks. You know those stocks that make up the Dow 30 or the SP500 indices. The idea is this: market thinks that the Fed is done with the rate hikes. In fact, investors now feel that the next Fed move is to lower the rates. If this were to happen, it will help Large Cap stocks much more than the Small Cap (the ones we own) stocks in general.

We will add some large cap stocks in our porfolio in the near future. But remember this, small stocks have much better chance of of a "double" than larger brothers. I expect the market to hit a new high soon (Dow is only 54 points away from the all time high). Have a great day.

NASCAR experience

2006-09-25T19:38:00.000-04:00

As per my previous note, I was at the Dover 400 NASCAR race held in Dover, Delaware. Obviously, this was my first experience of the NASCAR race scene. Let's just say that I was amazed. Upon arrival at the stadium, I could not believe the sheer size of the place. Over 100,000 spectators were in the seats. To be precise, the Dover 400 International Speedway accomodates 140,000 people.
What? --- Yes, 140,000!

Have you ever been in a stadium with 140,000 people? I haven't. There was a quick fire works to signal the start of the engines. Oh, the engines, I mean the sound of the engines. It is very loud - but in a satisfying sort of loud, you know what I mean? The smell of the tires melting, the loud sound of the engines, people jumping up and down to cheer their respective cars, are all the ingredients of this popular sport (fastest growing spectator sport).

By now, you know that I am somewhat of a curious cat. I just had to experience for myself why so many people spend big money to watch cars go around in circles (400 circles I mind you). By the way, I am already looking for tickets for the next races. There are several races left in this year: Atlanta, N.Carolina, Virginia, Kansas and of course Talladega, FL. I will tell you which one I will be at once tickets are in my possession. Maybe you can join me?

The race lasts about 4 hours (no, it is not boring 4 hours either). One thing you should know: out of the 100,000+ people, I saw two African-Americans and no Asians. Isn't that weird? This is the whitest sport I have ever seen; more so than even the Ice Hocky. But I'll bet you that this will change fast. We, the asians love thrills and dangers. I just think that most asians are not introduced properly to this exciting sport. You bet that I will change that too.

Business: The market is trying very hard to hit the new high for the year. It will definately get there - the only question is; will it go lower first ? or are we going to go stright up from here. The Dow 30 hit the low in June 13th and the QQQQ hit the low in June 18th. I think that these will be the actual lows for the year for both indices. I seriously doubt that it will go lower than it already did (great news isn't it?). Be ready to buy on the dips.

EXPEZ: Nomal daily volume is about 12,000 shares. Today it traded almost 69,000 shares! Someone today bought 55,000 shares at $5.75 at 10:30 am. Hmmm - I smell good things to come soon.

UTK: Just buy this at current prices. It closed today at $19.90 (cheap, cheap)

Keep adding to XMSR, NTE and RICK.

For those interested, in my trading account I bought GDX: I think gold is finished taking a rest. As I have said many times, I am very bullish on both Gold and Oil in the long term. Just so you know, my goal for the trading account is a few percentage points in a few days. See ya.

Window Dressing

2006-09-22T17:50:00.000-04:00

As per my note yesterday, the market took a little breather (for those who do not understand what breather means, simply put, the market went down). Don't worry, this was in the script ( I mean, my script). Anyone who listens to the market news, probably heard how we are so close to the record high and that we are heading there soon. Well, it is true that we will hit the high soon but it may not be next week. Next week is an important week for professional money managers. It is a window dressing week. So, what does window dressing mean?

Unlike you and me, the professional traders have to show a progress report (in writing) to the investors at least four (4) times per year. These reports are called quarterly, semi-annual and annual reports. They are produced at the end of March, June, September and December. In the report, money managers have to show exactly what they own in their portfolios. Most investors are interested in looking at the top ten holdings in the portfolios. Now, here's the thing: Let's assume that the manager owned Nam Tai (NTE: one of our holding). As you know, NTE went down a lot in 2006 (this is why we own it), which makes most people think of NTE as a looser. The money manager does not want people to think that he/she buys loosers. Thus they sell it (or do not buy it) until the report is produced. Remember, they can buy it on October 1st without anyone noticing it (it's not included in the report until December).

Bottom line: These activities (it is real) make recent winners go up even more during the window dressing week and also make recent loosers go down further (however, this is only a short term reaction). Many managers try to buy the recent winners (like AKAM) so that it can be added in the report; making them look especially smart ( because the report does not show when the manager bought them, it just show that they own it).

So, how does this information worth anything to you?
This means that stocks like our NTE, XMSR,MATK,AUTO will be especially good buys next week. The pros will be selling these hoping that they can buy it back later. Any weakness in above stocks next week will be a good entry point. Try to buy all four - they are great buys now. Just these four stocks as a group will probably outperform most of professionally managed funds a year from now. Can someone make a note of this and remind us later?

Tomorrow, I am leaving to Delaware to watch the NASCAR racing ( obviously, I have tickets to one of the best seats available). Remember, I don't go cheap on food and entertainments. Wooo, I can't wait. I wish all of you to have a safe and fun weekend.

P.S: Say "I love you" to someone this weekend.
PPS: Donate a few dollars to charities of your chioce this weekend. Go on .... try. It will make you feel so much better. Please, make a habit of giving some back to others. I will try my best to make you more than you gave. Deal?

NASCAR - Updates

2006-09-21T21:09:00.000-04:00

Can you believe tomorrow is Friday already?
The market has been on fire lately and I feel that we need to rest a little before resuming the uptrend. As I have said many times before, we will have a new high soon. For most of you, there will be one last chance to buy some of our stocks at reasonable prices. Basically, all the stocks in our current portfolio is a "buy". Let me give you some updates:

EXPEZ: This will be the last time you can buy it in the $5's. Place this one in your portfolio now. And I am not kidding. During the 4th quarter, Expedia's business will be fantastic.

XMSR: A few days ago, Merrill Lynch upgraded XMSR in addition to the recent Credit Suisse's upgrade. Satellite Radio business is real. And XMSR is the leader. XM has relationships with both GM and Toyota. As you know, these are the two largest Auto makers.

UTK: After a long upward march since we bought it (at $14.35) UTK is taking a much needed rest. Once this resting period is over (soon) one day this will run away from you fast. 2006 will be the record year for UTK in all fronts. You must own this.

IDWD: Please take some time to investigate this one. The last news says that it is in the final stages of being tendered offered at $2.35 per share (cash) without the 995ad.com business. We already received HLS stock dividend a few months ago. This is obviously speculative but I am willing to gamble (our cost is $0.72). You decide.

This weekend I will be in Delaware to attend the NASCAR racing. Have you ever been to the actual racing scene? I can't wait. It is the fastest growing spectator sport. There's big money on the line too (for drivers). Just imagine this: many many cars going at the speed of over 200 miles per hour and the distance between the car in front of you is only inches away. And you have to go around 500 times (Indy 500) before you can finish the race. I was told that the average drivers loose about 8 pounds of weight in a race (sweat, blood and tears I suppose). I will tell you all about it when I come back on next Monday.

Deal or no deal

2006-09-19T21:16:00.000-04:00

Yesterday (Monday) was my chemo day.
My typical chemo day goes like this: get up at 6:30am, leave home by 7:30, arrive at Memorial Sloan Center by 8:30 to register. After the routine blood work and personal consultation with my oncologist, I begin my chomo injection which lasts about 4-5 hours. Usually leaves the cancer center by 5pm and arrive home by 6pm or so. By this time, I am half dead.

All the different chemicals and fancy biotech drugs in me knocks me out - very tired. So please excuse me if you don't see my updates on my chemo Mondays. Oh, by the way I also bring home a portable chemo bottle (with the injection still in me) which lasts until Wednesday. Basically I have to eat, sleep, rest and everything else with the injection still stuck in me for three days (this was not easy in the beginning). You will be surprised to know what you can get used to if you had to. Physically I am tired during the chemo week (chemo also attacks red & white blood cells in addition to the cancer cells). The following week is a resting week. Then the whole system starts again the next week. It has been 10 months so far...

You should know that the average survival length for stage IV colon cancer patients like me is measured in months not years (9-10 months). Within the first 5 years upon diagnosis over 90% of patients are no longer with us. I desperately need to be in the top 10% - period.

I know that I am writing this - as matter of factly - but seriously, why don't you take a moment and pretend you are in my shoes for a few minutes. I need all of you to live your life fully. Right before my diagnosis last October, I was just like you - invincible. Never thought I would ever get my money back from the insurance companies.

Just try to remember this: You do not have time to be upset with someone. You should not waste your energy in anything that is not productive or pleasurable. You should not continue with a job that you don't like. You should not continue a relationship if you know that its not going to last. One thing you should not be cheap about - food. Try to add more veggies and fruits in your diet. And you must devote sometime to excercise. Spend as much time with your family as possible. All of the above is much more important than money. This is the logic: If you are rich but do not follow above ways, you are not a happy person. We all know people like that don't we? Never use "I don't have the time" excuse - do you notice that successful people always have the time for above activities? It is the low level people who always seems to have no time for this and that (and they usually make small money). You control your time - do not let others control your life.

Back to business: Nothing new to report. Keep adding to our list of stocks. Try your best to have as much of our stocks as possible. Diversification is the key. I am very optimistc with our holdings. I am researching the Oil and Gold play for future buys. These two groups will make people rich in coming years. It is not too late - this is just the begining.

Lastly, I have two request for regular readers to my blog. This will be a gentlemens agreement where you only owe me if you feel my blog has helped you. And you will be the judge (recipe for foulplay but I trust ya). So here it is: #1. Whenever you get the chance you pry for me and my family (I am going to assume that some of you can pull some strings with god). #2. Whenever we meet (NY or elsewhere) lunch or dinner is on you. I can eat almost everything except for spicy food.

Remember, I am only requesting the above to be able to keep on helping you. In order for me to be of any value to you: 1. I need to be alive 2. I need to be fed good food. Deal or no deal?

Q & A: Nam Tai (NTE)

2006-09-15T19:51:00.000-04:00

What a week we've just had! The market acted with such strong conviction that I actually went against the market the last three days in my trading account. I am currently short QQQQ and hope that Monday will bail me out. The stocks are showing life but seems a bit streched. In any case, I am glad to see that my assumptions (see note dated 9/10) are becoming true. Trust me, some things in the market are quite predictable : )

I was going to write an update on NTE today. Lo behold, one of our reader sent me a question via comment section below these pages. The question itself is relevent so here it is:

Q: Anonymous said...
Yes, when i saw the XMSR upgrade i remembered what you wrote a few weeks ago. Good call!Anyways - i had a question about NTE dividends. The yield for NTE is currently listed as 12.60% on Yahoo finance. Is this accurate? And they do they pay it at the end of the year?If the yield is actually that much (>10%), then i see buying NTE now as a no-brainer. Very limited down-side (because of the safety net of the dividend). Or i am missing something here??

A: Great question and here is my answer:
That's exactly what I am trying to say! I don't understand how so many people miss such a no brainer! But that's good for us - we do our homework. Early birds catch worms first! Too many people are negative on NTE stock. That's why we get such a good deal. Allow me to spell it out for you.
1. NTE decided to cut its dividend by half next fiscal year (2007) to invest more into the new manufacturing facilities.
2. Most people took thisb news as negative.
3. As I have said before (see note dated 8/17) I think this is a great news. Who wants cash when I can get higher return by re-investing it in proven business.
4. NTE stock went higher last few days but as of few days ago you could have locked in over 10%+ cash dividend, even after the 50% rate cut!
5. NTE stock holders as of 9/27 will receive cash dividend of $0.38 per share.
6. Then in December another $0.38/sh cash dividend.
7. During 2007 you will also get $0.21/sh cash in March & June.
8. So if you assume you will hold this for a year, you will receive total cash payment of $1.18/share!
9. BTW, these are guaranteed cash payments. Money is already set aside for these payments. As you know, most other company dividends are not guaranteed like NTE's.
10. In conclusion: you get the cash of about 10% on your money in a year guaranteed / you get the company that is growing - thus the planned expansion / NTE is the survivor in this sector / NTE has higher margin than most other competitors / NTE has money to adapt to the next level of manufacturing that most customers will seek / and the shares are so cheap!

Just get in OK?
Risk/Reward ratio is beautiful. So why are the shares at these level? I will answer that in 12 months from now. Because if I tell you now, you wouldn't believe me. Please someone mark this note and remind me a year from now ...

P.S: I have gotten in touch with friends that I have lost contact through this blog. They somehow get into this site and find me. How do you just stumble upon my site? Do you surf the net that much? I have no clue. But I am glad that I am reaching my old friends. The last one was a fraternity brother from my college days. Just so you know, I was a Teke (TKE) and I was the president of my fraternity. My auto-license plate in college was " TKE-CEO". And guess what I watching in my frat house living room during the lunch time? Yep - CNBC market news, of course. Everyone wanted to watch the ESPN but they knew not to mess with my TV...
Ahhh... how I mis the college days....

XMSR: on the move

2006-09-14T21:14:00.000-04:00

XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) got a "Outperform" rating from Credit Sussie today and the stock jumped 9.43%. If you read my August 22nd note on XM, I specifically said that Wall Street houses will issue "Buy" ratings in coming weeks. Let me tell you something else, another house will issue favorable rating again in coming weeks. Technically speaking, XMSR is in a fantastic shape; it just sliced a 100-day moving average on huge volume (over 28 million shares). For those of you who did not buy yet, it is not too late yet. Buy now and enjoy the fruits later.

Another piece of good news. Rick's Cabaret (RICK) moved above $7 again for the third time this year. I hope the third time is a charm. RICK is also sitting above 100-day moving average. The business great, cash flow is fantastic and as I said many times before, this will be much higher later. It is our largest holding and I hope you all own this. It's a shame if you don't own this while reading Acetrader blog. Go and get it.

Some of you are not sure about my decision to not sell Martek (MATK) when it fell 20%+ a few days ago. In fact, I told you to buy at this levels (read my note dated 9/7). Let me just tell you this: the new CEO of MATK , Mr. Steve Dubin ust bought substantial amont of stock using his own money. This increased his direct holdings by more than 40%. Who better knows the company other than the CEO himself? A year from now, those who didn't join this party will have much to regret.

The new gismo from Microsoft "Zune" seems to be a worthy competitor to the "i-pod" at $300 each. I personally own two ipods. I love'em. Apple is a great company. They are coming out with other "stuff" for us to buy more of its goods. These types of competition by 800 pound gorillas is good for us. The "Free market" system is by far the best path to prosperity.
I love America. Good nite.

P.S: Yes, I am still suffering from my mouth sores. I now have about ten white spots on my tongue, uner my tongue, side of my tongue and on my inner cheeks as well. It hurts to talk never mind eating anything. This is just one of many side-effects of Chemo therapy. Yet another reason for all of you to "thank God" for not giving you such challenges. What do I thank God for? I thank God that he did not give me "Brain cancer" or "Tongue cancer" (these are much worse than my colon cancer: it makes what I go through seem like a walk in the park). Understand?

Buy Utek: UTK

2006-09-12T20:17:00.000-04:00

The market turned in an impressive performance today.
Is this the beginning of new bull or is this just a fake rally?
No one really knows. If you want me to guess, I would say this is likely to be a fake move. The market might fall again before finally moving up. In any case, this is not a boring time for most of us. As I have said before, this is time to accumulate shares at discount prices.

If you happened to be the person who still does not own UTK, you're in luck. Now is the chance for you to buy some. UTK is one of my core holdings. I have many comments on UTK in previous notes if you care to look. The risk/reward ratio is awesome at this point. Just know this, UTK has all the ingredients to become a major player in the technology transfer business. Buy it and hold it. This is not a trading candidate.
( Did you know that UTK owns stocks in over 50 public companies?)

The market cap on UTK is currently under $200 million.
I would not be surprised to find this to be over $1 billion a few years from now.
Do not miss your chance again ...

Commodities Down: Oil / Gold

2006-09-11T22:11:00.000-04:00

I have bad mouth sores again. I now count about seven areas in my mouth where the the skin is white (open sore). Never mind eating, it hurts to talk. This will last at least a week or two - nice. But the truth is that this is a small price to pay in order for me to prolong my life. I basically need to buy enough time so that hopefully a miracle biotech cure for cancer is found. I truly believe that we will find many more new drugs to cure many diseases in our life time. Biotechnology sector is one of my top choice for the next ten years.

As most of you know I have a keen interest in both Oil and Gold sectors. Why? Because if you time it right, it can payoff handsomely in a short period of time. Long term, both sectors entered a bullish cycle. Short term, however, it looks negative.

I use OIH for oil sector bets. OIH is a basket of oil services companies. These companies move faster than oil producers such as Exxon or ConocoPhilips. I just love OIH, its that simple. Why then do we not own it in our Acetrader portfolio? Because I am waiting for the right price. The last time we owned it, we sold it at $165/share (refer to 5/14 note). Today it closed at $125 - wow, I did not expect it to go down this far this fast. So do I feel its a good buy now? No, not yet. OIH has broken an important trend line. Although this is a good price, it is going to be dead money for a while. Basically oil price went below $66/barrel, I now think that it can go as low as $55. The big surprise was that Iran is lowering its tail finally. This is not good for oil price. Let's wait until the dust settles. We will definately buy OIH later!

I use GDX to trade gold sector bets. This is a basket of gold/silver/copper producers. Gold price went down to $580/oz - down $22 today alone. I love to own gold mining shares but it was a little too expensive. Now, the price is coming down finally. I expect gold to go down to about $550/oz - we will also definately own GDX or BGO. Let's wait again.

Sometimes in investing game you need to do nothing.

You loose if you move too much. This is such a time. Let's be patient because I see many many good deals going on. And I think the sale will go on for a while. Just get your money ready. We will be buying and selling soon.

P.S: In order to raise funds to buy above stocks, we need to sell something in our portfolio. I would welcome your ideas on this. Which ones should we "fire"? Please vote.

The Big Picture IV

2006-09-10T21:22:00.000-04:00

I hope we all had a good weekend. Regular readers know that I write about the "Big Picture" occationally to re-adjust our thought process and to make sure we do not stray away from our original goals. In the internet age, it is too easy for us to receive multiple information regarding one subject matter that we sometimes loose our focus. I understand that most investors have this problem and the worst part is that they don't even realize this has profound effect in portfolios.

If you wish to know where I stand on investment issues in 2006, it will help you to go back and read my previous "Big Picture" series. Assuming that you have read them, I still expect the low point of 2006 to be in the 3rd quarter. And I still expect good things to come in the 4th quarter. This is one of the reason why we are fully invested currently. Unless you have million dollar protfolio (where preservation of capital is your main investment objective) I do not believe in being too defensive in investing. Having defensive portfolios cost too much for too many people. Remember this one important statistics: Markets go up more than they go down. There are more up days than down days. In fact, up days out number down days by more than 2:1 ratio. Generally speaking, for most of you, it is not profitable for you to be out of the market.

Now, during 2006, markets go down for one main reason: fear of further rate hikes ( btw, this is just an excuse - stocks will go up & down no matter what anyway, people just need a b for various stock activities). So, will the "Rate" go up again or are we finished? Who knows - even Mr. Bernanke himself doesn't know. But I do have an idea, a gut feeling, an opinion, a prediction - call it what you want but I have it. And here are my thoughts:

1. This November 7th (less than 2 months away) is mid-term election. A third (33%) of Senate seats and all (100%) of the House seats are up for grabs. I hope you agree that this is very, very important for both Democrats and Republicans.

2. Our Fed. Chairman Mr. Bernanke, was and is very close to the Bush camps. Before this job, he was the head of Mr. Bush's economic advisors.

3. Raising rates now will hurt Republicans a lot. Do you think he will do it anyway? I personally would not bet on it.

4. The general economy is doing OK but the housing market is definately in trouable. Simply look at the housing stocks (great place to look for bargains ).

5. If rates are raised again, making the mortgages harder & more expensive to get, housing sector will fall much faster and deeper.

6. Recently ( unlike the past) many people bought houses with adjustable rate mortgages with interest only payments. As rates go up, many people will have to pay 150% of what they used to pay. Can you afford your apartment if the rent went up 150%? I think not.

7. The economy will definately be affected by the housing slowdown, and this will continue for quite a while.

8. Another words, economy has very little chance to overheat - thus no more need for further rate hikes - I hope.

Am I making any sense? Does not matter. We will be fully invested throughout 2006 for eventual gains. It is time to pick bargains for future gains. Oh, by the way, if the market realizes that Mr. Bernanke is finished with the rate hike game, market will hit new highs. This is probably how the story will end in 2006. I can not wait for the 4th quarter! Happy investing...

P.S: Due to above, HomeDepot (HD) looks very cheap. Too cheap. HD is not our usual kind of candidate but we may just add this to our portfolio. Look at it and wait for my signal.

Buy Martek (MATK)

2006-09-07T17:05:00.000-04:00

As per my note yesterday, I thought about the Martek situation. And finally, here is my decision: Buy Martek (MATK) if you do not own it yet & If you own it then hold it for eventual gains. Selling this at this price is just plain stupid. Think about it for a moment. Here's my thoughts:

1. MATK is the leader (over 80% market share) in DHA & ARA suppliments.
2. DHA & ARA is good for your brain / eyes / heart and many more body parts
3. Most of the sale comes from infant fomular makers (milk for babies)
4. No parents will buy milk that does not contain DHA & ARA for their babies
5. Understand that sales will fluctuate due to few large customer base (4)
6. Sales will definately grow so they have to have excess capacity (cost)
7. Out of 30 million shares (float), 13 million traded today between $21.5-$22.5
8. Who do you think bought 13 million shares today? (institutions with brains)
9. About 30% of all shares are being shorted (they all have to buy MATK back)
10. Most recent quarter: Revenue $70 million vs. $40 million same time last year
11. Most recent quarter: Earnings per share $0.16 vs. $0.00 last year
12. Growth will come from international business such as Korea and China
13. More food products will utilize DHA & ARA: cereals, cookies and drinks
14. There is no known competitor except for Fish Oil (DHA is in fish)
15. Fish oil does not compare to Martek's which is from MicroAlgae
16. Acetrader will hold its shares

Due to recent down grades by the wall street (that's how they buy this on the cheap from emotionally scared retail investors) MATK might be weak in coming weeks. However, we do not invest for the next few weeks. Looking into next few quarters, there's no question that this offers value. Buy now if you still do not own this (what a present!) or hold this if have already have some. Bottom Line: I liked this at $26, now at $22 I like it even more. Fundamentally, Martek's business has not changed at all. It's future still looks bright. Buy, I say.

P.S: The market is looking weaker by the day. We may actually see the real bottom of this year. However, this does not change our original plans. Keep saving your money and keep investing your money. A few years from now, current prices will seem like a joke. On any further weakness, try to buy RICK / UTK / EXPEZ ..... well everything we own.

News: RICK,MATK,BTYH

2006-09-06T20:05:00.000-04:00

Let me give you an update on our holdings. The market fell today because of fear of future potential rate hike by Mr. Bernanke due to rising labor costs. Who cares? The real news today is that we have found new oil reserves near Mexico deep down in the sea. How much oil did we find? The estimates stand at near 15 billion gallons! Let me put it to you this way. The amount we can produce daily from this well can cover about 50% of our current daily use! Now that's a lot. It will probably take about 5 years for us to actually get it out but the important thing is that we have it! This is major good news for U.S.A.

RICK: Keeps pumping cash and in the month of August the revenue increased over60% compared to last year same time. Stock went up 8.1% today. This will probably be the last chance for you to see RICK at near $6. This one will head higher. Now you know why I own so much of this.

MATK: Just released its 3Q. earnings. Basically it beat the revenue and earnings estimates but the management cautioned about the 4th quarter numbers. The stock is down after hours trading at near $23. This is very frustrating. Martek has a great business and great products. It owns over 80% market share of the baby formular market. I love this business long term but the stock will probably be weak in the near term. What to do? Let me sleep on this. I have to think real hard this time. This stock is too cheap to let go. Hmmmm...

BTYH: Did you notice that at one point in this afternoon BTYH was up as high as $1.08? That's up over +65% from yesterday's price! In the end, it closed at $0.77 up +18.46% for the day. It traded over half million shares. I think somebody knows something we don't know. Keep an eye on this. I smell good thing to come.

EXPEZ: Finally this touched $7/share today. My cost was $4.37 but many of you own this at lower price. Remember that on 8/1/06 EXPEZ traded at $3.88. We will soon earn 100% profit on this one, yeh!

OK. I am really tired now. Have a good night...

So what do I do?

2006-09-05T19:44:00.000-04:00

As I type this, I have the chemo injection in me. Bi-weekly my chemo session goes from Monday through Wednesday. Sleeping with the needle in you poses some chellenges. Basically, you do not get good sleep. Oh well, such is the life of a cancer fighter. Aren't you lucky?

Yesterday, I gave you the year-to-date performance figures as well as complete list of our holdings. Some of you are confused. Especially the newer readers to this blog. If I were them, I would be asking "So what do I do now?". Thus, to help the new members as well as reviewing sake for the old timers, let me give you an overall review of our work.

Most importantly, please go back and re-read two of my previous notes: #1. "Investing 101" dated 4/9/2006 and #2. "How to get Started" dated 4/16/2006. Even if you think you've read it before, please read them again (it takes less then 5 minutes) because it will allow us to be in same wave length - so to speak.

Currently Acetrader portfolio carries twelve (12) different stocks. We will hold between 10-15 stocks at anytime but no more. Please understand that by having 12 stocks in different industries eliminates over 90% of unsystematic risk in a portfolio. If you were to invest in 100 different stocks, it will eliminate 97% of same risk. So by buying 90 more stocks you only eliminate 7% more of the risk - does not make sense to most of us. So, we will concentrate our effort on 12 players. Now, allow me to divide those players into different catagories in order for you to better pick which ones to hire first for your team.

1. Marriage material - these are long term commitments, although I gave you target prices for these we will continue to hold until something fundamentally goes wrong. Ideally, we will never sell these but we probably will some day. Consider these to be your core holdings, they are: RICK / UTK / NTE (you can buy these anytime, including now).
Example: We bought UTK (4/21/06) at $14.35 and placed a target price for $24/share. On 8/4 UTK went over the target price of $24 already. However we did not issue a sell. I believe this will go much much higher in the future. Although I changed the target price to $28 yesterday, we probably won't sell it even if it gets there. At least I won't - you can do whatever.

2. Intermediate Opportunities - these we expect to hold for 12-18 months unless the target price is reached before then. Most likely we will sell them once our objective is met. As always, I let you know when I decide to "fire" them. With these players I believe I found some value that most wall street people missed. Too many people are emotional - I generally leave the emotion outside when money is involved. Stocks in this catagory are: EXPEZ / AUTO / BYTH / IGLD / XMSR
Example: We bought PRZ (5/25 & 6/6) at average cost of $1.29 and place a target for $2.5 but by 8/8 I smelled something fishy and decided to issue a sell at $1.97 (go back and read 8/7 & 8/8 note). We got out that day at a price of $1.9736/share - earning +52% in two months. Not quite the 12-18 months. It is currently selling for $1.44/share, good move indeed.

3. Exciting Speculation - these are the potential homeruns or duds. But I do my homework and we can make some serious money on these babies. There is no time frame, we have to simply touch and go. Obviously these guys are the most risky among our holdings - so use your own discretion when buying these, they are: IDWD / MIDS
Example: We have made good money by buying and selling IDWD in several occations. The stock traded between $0.70 - $1.20 most of this year. My current 15,000 shares went from $0.72 to $1.35 as of today's close - up over +86%! It went from the bottom of the list to one of the top recently (see my note yesterday). I have several automatic sell limit orders at $1.74 to $2.75 I suggest you do the same.

4. Quick trades - once in a while, when I see an opportunity, I advise you of a quick trade generally lasting few days. We have made some money buying and selling OIH and shorting KRY and HYTM. Although I sometimes tell you about my day-trading activities utilizing the QID and QLD, those trades do not get calculated in Acetraders performance figures. Those are totally separate basket of money.

I hope above analysis helps. Please understand that it is too hard for me to write everything that goes through my mind regarding the choices I make. After a while you will get to understand my thought process and my style through this blog. I sincerely hope that you learn to become a regular saver and an informed investor. Investing is never ending endeavor - you will do this until you grow too old and can not see or hear. So do not try to hurry - learn it slowly and enjoy the process.

P.S: Buy NTE at current price. It is on a fire sale! I will do a detailed write up soon on NTE again. Buy things when everyone is selling (lesson number 27). Happy investing ...

Performance Update 2006

2006-09-04T22:15:00.000-04:00

As most of you know, I received my chemo session today. It was especially tough this time. I am receiving few more drugs in addition to the six different chemicals in my regiment. As I type this (10:30 pm now) I am feeling very weak. Emotionally I am a little down as well (I just read that the average survival rate among patients receiving Irinotecan drug is about 10 months - you can google the word "irinotecan" if you want). There's few greater chellenges than being a final stage (stage 4) colon cancer patient.

The truth is that I am not fearful of dying. I consider myself to have had a wonderful life so far. If my life was cut short by this disease, I would miss it but I would not feel too cheated either. I was fortunate enough to have wonderful, loving parents as well as a brother and two sisters that I would give anything to. My beautiful wife and my son "Ace" is more than any man can wish for. God definately dealt me some good cards (too bad that I did not get such cards during my recent trip to the casino). I truly wish that the readers of my blog take some time to appreciate what they have now. Believe me, most of you should thank god every morning for what was dealt to you. BTW, if you do not believe in god, I suggest you pray anyway. Think of it as a Put Option on your portfolio without the premium. I've yet to hear someone being damaged by praying...

Now here is our YTD performance in 2006:

Index NAV (1/1) NAV (9/1) Performance %

SP500 1,248.29 1,311.01 +5.02 %
Nasdaq 2,205.32 2,193.16 -0.55 %
AceTrader 1,315.32 1,829.24 +39.07 %

As noted above, these numbers are as of last Friday (September 1st, 2006). We were close to being up +50% not too long ago, but some of our holdings gave back some recently. Not to worry. Even with those mishaps, our performance is in the top 1% of all professional money managers (mutual funds, hedge funds and institutions). And most importantly, this is not a hypothetical portfolio. We use real money! Our current holdings and our cost is listed below.

Stock Avg.Cost Price (9/1/06) Gain/Loss % Target
RICK $4.80 $6.41 +33.35% $10.10
EXPEZ $4.37 $6.75 +54.78% $9.60
IDWD $0.72 $1.34 +85.08% $2.75
UTK $14.35 $20.67 +44.04% $28.00
AUTO $1.09 $1.09 +0.00% $2.16
MATK $26.42 $29.76 +12.64% $38.00
BTYH $1.46 $0.70 -52.09% $2.80
MIDS $1.37 $1.60 +16.11% $2.40
IGLD $5.29 $5.31 +0.38% $9.00
NTE $14.97 $11.43 -23.65% $22.00
XMSR $11.20 $12.72 +13.57% $22.50
HLS - no value yet (special dividend from IDWD)

The stocks are listed by size of holdings. Another words, RICK is my largest holding in our portfolio.It is very important to be diversified in investing. Try your best to hold as many of these holdings as possible. So there it is.

The market is a bit extended. Do not chase the stocks yet. Wait for better entry point.

Atlantic City Vacation

2006-09-03T23:55:00.000-04:00

Some of you are wondering where I was the last few days. I decided in a moments notice last Wednesday to just pack and leave to the Atlantic City, NJ for much needed vacation with my wife. We dined at fabulous restaurants, received massages, slept late everyday and of course some business (gambling) was taken care of.

My favorite establishment is Harrah's network of casinos which includes: Bally's / Caesars / Harrahs / Rio / Sheraton / Showboat / Paris / Horseshoe / Harveys / Grand Casinos / Flamingo. Currently, my favorite casino stock is Las Vegas Sands (LVS) but I should look into Harrahs as well. The truth is that casino stocks have been outperforming the general market for a long time. They all look expensive to me right now.

You all know that the market is closed tomorrow (Monday 9/4). I will be receiving my chemo all day. But I will be updating my blog tomorrow with YTD performance figures. Remember that next Monday is 9/11. I sure hope nothing happens.

NTE just took a hit on Friday. Over-reaction is what it was. To most of you who did not buy NTE yet, this should be a welcome gift. Buy at this price and hold on. You need to understand the value when you see one. It will probably trade higher next week. Buy.

EXPEZ is on fire! We are up big in a short time. I am not going to say I told you so. And the ride is just beginning. If you still do not own this, try to buy in the $5's if possible.

I feel that QQQQ is over-extended. It needs to rest before setting up the next trend. As per my last Saturday's (8/26) note, QQQQ had a good run last week. Too good. We should see some downward pressure soon. Please remember that the big boys will join the party next week. Volume will rise and prices will jump up and down needlessly. Great for traders.

Another secret ...

2006-08-30T16:27:00.000-04:00

We are now approaching an important resistance point in QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 index ETF). If you remember, last Saturday on this blog I said this week looks positive. Indeed, we have had a string of up days. The QQQQ now stands at $38.91 - very close to the $39 resistance price.

There's another reason to be cautious. Tomorrow is the deadline for Iran to tell us their intention regarding the nuclear program. As you know, I do not expect good news. Iran has been able to do whatever they want so far without any consequences. They are using the oil as bargaining chips. This situation will not last (just like I said the Israel situation will not last). As if this is not enough, Mr. Bernanke will speak tomorrow. Bottomline: we will see the market turning one way or the other by the end of tomorrow. If QQQQ closes decidedly above $39 it's bullish. Otherwise, market might fall again for the last time in this year (new low maybe?).

The smartest thing to do is to wait for the confirmation for clear direction before placing a wager. However, I have decided to place some wager now - just incase (all I need is to have one of the two guys (Bernanke or Mr. Iran) to say something stupid). I have QID sitting overnight.

Tomorrow marks the last day of August. Time really flys doesn't it?
I will post Acetraders latest performance figures soon. No real changes to our portfolio for now. Most of you do not own the whole portfolio. If we were to experience a down turn, please use this last chance to add to your holdings. Save money - have ammos ready.

P.S: Another secret to success revealed: You need three (3) things to be financially successful, they are: TIME / MONEY / KNOWLEDGE. If you are missing any one of these, it is quite unlikely that one will enjoy financial success.
If you are young, you already have the most important component - TIME. But you don't have money? Then save at least 25% of your earnings. Do not waste your hard earned $ to drink $5 coffee at you know where. You can not enjoy all you want and still have money (unless you are born rich). BTW, rich people tend to not read blogs like this. Lastly, gain knowledge by reading right materials and hang around right people. You learn a lot simply by hanging around right people. I will reccommend some books in future notes.

Technically speaking...

2006-08-29T06:32:00.000-04:00

First of all, let me share an answer to the million dollar question:
"How do I invest successfully and pick the right stocks?"
Answer: "You choose which company to invest through fundamental analysis then read the chart action (technical analysis) to time the buy and sell decisions".
Make sure you understand the above. When you do, you will be ahead of the majority of other fellow investors/stock pickers.

As I have mentioned, the strong action in the QQQQ encourages me. I am sure some of you took the advantage of my QLD setups I placed on Saturday. Good for you. But let's talk about some of our long term holdings, technically speaking.
AUTO is deteriorating technically. It recently moved below the 100-day moving average (MA). Fundamentally, I see nothing wrong. But I don't like the tape action. We will give it some room until the 200-day MA. now at $0.91 I am being very generous with this one because it moved down on a low volume. Let's hope it shapes up soon. Otherwise, "you're fired!".
MATK on the other hand, just moved above its 200-day MA. This is an excellent sign. Next week it will report earnings - and it will be good. Let's ride this one up!
EXPEZ is now offically above the $6 level. It might jump around a little but it will definately move up in coming weeks and months. We already have close to +40% gain on this one!
UTK's action is totally natural. It is in the process of digesting the large gains it got recently. Soon, it will resume its move upwards. This is a good time to get in by the way.

As most of you know, I saw my oncologist yesterday. The side effects of chemo is bad enough that he thinks we should hold off until next Monday for my chemo. So I get a week off! Taking in all that "poison" makes you very tired. I just hope that my cancers are very tired too. Here's an original thought: Cancer is just like terrorist.
Terrorists are one of us too. They are humans. They simply have different agenda. An agenda to kill us!
Cancer cells are my cells too. It is part of who I am made of. It simply has different agenda. To grow exponentially to the point where the host (that's me) will die!

This is my view on defense system: The best defense is offense - period.
My investing style reflects this too. Does our portfolio look like it is defenive? Hardly. We are all out offensive in this environment. That's how I beat the market returns and most of other investors. I take risks. Calculated risks but risks never the less. I also assume that you are investing with offensive money. You do not take out cash advance from your credit cards to buy stocks. This is basic. Let's be smart here.

I assume that the regular readers of this blog has above average intelligence. It is a decent assumption since only the intelligent will see the true value of my writings : )
Have a beautiful day and say "I love you" to someone today...

Where are we? (QQQQ)

2006-08-26T22:37:00.000-04:00

I hope your weekends are as nice as mine. Spending all day with my son "Ace" and my wife "Sunny" is like heaven. I appreciate every minute of it. I am so lucky to have a healthy, intelligent son and equally healthy and intelligent wife. Not too many men can say what I just said. Of course all parents say their kids are smart but let's be honest - I've seen some slow kids. The point I am trying to make is this: Enjoy what you have now. Happiness in the past or future don't really count. What's important is "Are you happy today?". The answer better be "YES". If not, try to change little things that will place you closer to being happy. It can be done. Actually, it is one of the easiest things you can do. If you have a problem excuting, call me, I will take care of it for you. I've done it for so many people. It's walk in the park for me.

If you are an avid reader of this blog, you 'll notice that I write about the "Big Picture" every so often. The last two times were back in July11th and 27th (go back and re-visit for your sake). I feel that it is time again to think about where we are, in terms of the stock market. Isn't it so easy to get lost and forget where we stand? (this is why most investors are not successful - they don't stop and think). I will give you a picture using QQQQ as a bench mark. Oh, by the way, the reason I use QQQQ so often is because real bull market wouldn't be real, unless QQQQ is leading the way. Besides, most of our holdings are from the NASDAQ market.

The year 2006 began with the QQQQ closing at $41.31 (January 3rd). The high for this year was at $43.31 (January 11th). Then, it basically went down hill from there. The low of this year so far was at $35.54 (July 18th). From high to low, we lost -18% on QQQQ. Since the low point on 7/18, the market began to move up. As of last Friday, QQQQ stood at $38.32 (August 25th). So from the beginning of this year, QQQQ is ONLY down -7.2%.

Two weeks ago, the market (I mean QQQQ) made a strong upward move. Last week was a test to see if it would hold those gains. And guess what - it help up quite well. It withstood numerous bad news without a major selloff. This is an encouraging sign. I think next week will prove to be positive. I will be buying QLD on Monday (we made so much money with the QID last week - remember?).

I will be in the hospital on Monday receiving my usual chemo injection. Just so you kow, this injection lasts three days. I will unhook this injection on Wednesday. I just hope that it won't be as bad as the last chemo session ( I am talking about the side-effects of chemo). What this means is that bi-weekly (chemo is every other week), I won't be in front of my computer on Mondays. I have to either stop my day-trade or I have to leave it overnight. I think I will leave QLD overnight unless I get to my computer in time (with profit I hope).

Bottom line: Was the July 18th the absolute bottom of this year? No one knows. I just feel that we will see the bottom sometime durng the third quarter (July 1st - September 30th). Once again, as I have said many times - we are in the danger zone until there is a clear trend in the market. We just have to handle it week by week. Odds favor positive week next week. Let's see. Have a wonderful weekend.

P.S: Both BTYH & AUTO fell too much. Value hunters will buy at this low prices for eventual higher prices. You do what you have to, I may be buying more next week. I will tell you if I do.

Our Eleven (11) Players

2006-08-24T21:09:00.000-04:00

Tomorrow I will be getting colonoscopy at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center located at 67th street, New York City. Translation: It is my day off. Doctors will put me under (this actually feels good in a weird way) and they will enter my anus and have a field day. Luckily, I won't be up to witness their various activities. Let's cross our fingers and hope they see nothing unusal.

For the last two or three days, I could not eat anything. Drinking OJ was a problem too (it stings). My dinner for the last three days was Haagen-Dazs (chocolate chip flavor). I now weight just under 138lbs. I just need to get over this phase of my therapy. Pray for me.

You need to understand that this market is in the process of making its mind up. Take today's action for instance, QQQQ opened at $38.26 then it went stright down and by noon it was at $37.92 ( I am sure some of you took my advise and earned some profit using QID) then, it jumped stright up and closed at $38.25 - basically no change from the open. I took a profit today by actually shorting the QID in the afternoon (shorting QID is no different than buying QLD but QID was trading at higher premium to NAV so I decided to short instead).

RICK just acquired a new club in San Antonio Texas. It is excuting its business plan like a clock work - I like that in a stock. Another stock that keeps excuting is UTK. It just received 36 million shares of Material Technologies Inc. common stock. UTK is a great buy at current prices. Our core holdings such as RICK, UTK, MATK seem boring to some of you but these will make us rich. Our new hires such as EXPEZ, XMSR, NTE will show its colors soon. And we have our share of excitement from IDWD, MIDS,BTYH. Both AUTO and IGLD are working hard for us. They are quiet but look at its numbers, it is working very hard indeed.

When the time comes, we will certainly have to "fire" some of them. It will be hard to let go but we must. Remember what happened to PRZ when we said "you're fired!". We said good bye at $1.97 and it is now trading at $1.44 ( it was as low as $1.22 yesterday). I am constantly looking for a new draft. But I am also almost fully invested. In order to afford a new, better player, we may have to exchange (trade) players. We may have do that soon.

Once again, things don't look too good for tomorrow. It all depends what Mr. Bernanke says tomorow. And I have no idea what he will say. All I know is that the market does not think he will raise rates again. If he says anything regarding the rates having a small chance to be raised, the market will fall like a rock. It's OK. We know how to utilize QID. Right? I taught you well. Again, wish me luck tomorrow. Trade carefully.

Market Smells: (NTE)

2006-08-23T21:52:00.000-04:00

Bad market action today (not that it was a surprise for us), my setup for QID trade (see yesterday's note) made yet another profit for us. Bought at $67.56 and Sold at $68.56 for a quick +1.5% gain. It seems that some of you are really enjoying watching my QQQQ trades. If you are new to investing, try to stick to the Acetrader portfolio for now. You need to practice with fake money first then jump in. Build a hypothetical portfolio and closely watch what happens. That's how you build confidence.

My mouth sore (from chemo therapy) is really bad now. I can hardly talk never mind eating anything solid. I lost 8 pounds during the last two weeks. Mentally and emotionally however, I am doing fantastic - you probably know why : )
Tomorrow, my "Human Touch Massage Chair" by Sharper Image will arrive. I can't wait. This chair is quite amazing. It even streches your whole body. Starting tomorrow, I will be sitting on that chair while I type my blogs. I will be taking restful naps on this chair. I will be receiving numerous massages too. You just can't go wrong with this fine machine. Check out the Sharper Image website for more info.

This Friday is my follow up colonoscopy (it goes up your ass). Starting tomorrow afternoon, I can't eat anything - not that I am eating much now. If you have never gotten colonoscopy done before, I strongly suggest you get one right away. That's how they found my cancer. I went for annual physical check every year. Blood test and the whole nine yards. Those tests can not find cancers - if you can believe it. Some of you might be growing cancer right now (I hope not but why leave it to chance?). I did not know or felt anything until the day I got my colonoscopy. It is the fastest growing cancer in the United States. No one in my family (both dad and mom's side) had cancer. I was handsome 5'10" and 152 pounds, looking very fit. You would never have guessed that I would be a cancer carrier. Don't put it off - get your check up as soon as your schedule allows. Hint: Insurances generally do not pay for your test unless you are over age 50 (how stupid is that?). If you see blood in your stool however, they will pay for it. Get it? Wink, wink...

We finally purchased Nam Tai (NTE) for our portfolio. 740 shares at $14.92/share. This is a good price. Buy now. This will be one of our long term holdings like Utek (UTK). To get more info. read my past notes it. You should consider yourself to be lucky to know and own NTE.

No QQQQ setups tonight. I feel that the market will go down in coming days. I will probably trade QIDs tomorrow. If market opens flat tomorrow, go short (buy QID), if it goes up a bit go short again. We will probably get quick 1.5-2% again. This is a dangerous time. The market can go either way - there's no clear path. My gut tells me it will be negative until the big boys come in after the Labor day holiday. The real serious business will start after the Labor day.
Come on down big boys-we are ready!

P.S: Yes, if you buy IDWD you will get the $2.35 cash offer and the 995ad.com shares. Assuming that this is not fake news. Many do not trust IDWD management, that's why it is trading at such low prices. So far, I am going along with the news from the company. I told you many times to buy near $1 and sell it near$2 - unless you completely trust the management. Then hold it until all deals consumate. We have made serious money (five figures) with IDWD this year. Just sold 5,000 shares at $1.38 today (cost was $0.69/share) taking some profit. Still own 15,000 shares. As you can see, IDWD trades in big swings. I love it.

Ka-Ching ! (XMSR)

2006-08-22T21:57:00.000-04:00

Many people wondered about my call when I issued a buy on XMSR. Some thought it was going down hill, many said SIRI is the better choice, wall street had negative rating on it (by the way - I hope you don't listen to wall street firms all the time). I had to re-list my reasoning behind this reccommendation a few days ago. I just hope you bought into it. Let me tell you a secret: Before I buy a stock, I follow it for weeks if not months. If you open the comment section for yesterday, you will see that one of our reader bought 1,000 shares at $9.97 and bought again at $12.87 today. Now, that's a sweet move - congratulations. Remember, good information is worth nothing unless you act on it. It takes guts to act in this business. Bottom line: XMSR will head higher in months to come. More houses will issue "BUY" rating on this. Hold on tight.

Due to the XMSR soptlight, most of you probably missed a stealth up-move on one of our holdings. This one will reward you handsomely too. Can you guess which one I am talking about? Yes, I am refering to EXPEZ. Today it went as high as $5.90/share. Many of you bought it upon my reccomendation but there's still a lot of you who did not. Those who didn't usually forget to pay attention to it (a big mistake most amateurs make). Let me give you some facts you probably missed: At the beginning of this month (Aug. 1st) EXPEZ closed at $3.88 - As of today, the same EXPEZ is at $5.656/share. That's a gain of +45.8% in 15 trading days! Are you getting the message? No, it is not too late. This will head much higher. How do I know? I just know. That's why you keep coming back to my blog remember? Just do it.

To answer one of our readers question: Yes, I have had three round trips of QQQQ trades today. #1. Bought QID at $66.66(12:14pm) - Sold at $67.66(1:24PM) #2. Bought QLD at $69.58(1:45pm) - Sold at $69.77(2:04pm) #3. Bought QLD at $69.77(2:29pm) - Sold at $70.25(3:19pm) And last but not least I bought QID at $67.56(3:58pm) just before the close. I will hold this over-night hoping for a negative open tomorrow. My target is +2% or so.

The truth is I usually have one round trip per day on average. Today's action was unusual. However, all three trades were profitable. Let's hope my over-night trade will also be profitable tomorrow. As you can see, it is not too feasible for me to list all my quick trades here. I tried to show you my trading style by listing my setups before it actually happened but I can not continually do this to help you trade. My blog is not real-time. I will however, try to give you setups if I feel that you can act upon it. Thanks for the interest.

Iran has sent its intention in a letter to the U.N. There is no announcement yet. Maybe tomorrow we will hear the news. My take? I do not expect any positive news. The current Iranian government is too volatile - not good for stocks. This is also a hurricane season. Again, this is not particularly good for stocks either. Oil and Gold will move higher in weeks.

Quick Summary: (QID)

2006-08-21T21:34:00.000-04:00

As expected (see my last note), this Monday was a negative day. Everything went down except for Oil, Gold and our IDWD & EXPE - I will talk about this later. Before I get into the summaries of our holdings, let me tell you about our another successful QQQQ trade. If you read my last note, I told you about my setup for QID trade. We bought it on Friday at $66.24 (expecting a negative Monday) and hoped for a quick +2% trade. Well, this morning, we sold it for $67.66 for a gain of +2.15% (our expectation was to sell at $67.56 but we were able to squeez out another dime on this trade). Actually, QID went as high as $67.99! Our goal is to sell near high - not actual high (because I don't know ). Anyway, I hope the last few trades I shared with you helped you gain some knowledge into what day trades are like. I will admit that I was lucky to "ace" all trades I have shared with you. I hope this trend continues - for my sake.

Quick summaries of our holdings:

RICK: Hold on. Nothing has changed. U sell it = U regret it.
AUTO: This is value. Buy if u don't own it.
UTK: People still ask me what price to pay for this. The current price is acceptable. This is one of my favorite long term holdings.
BTYH: Numbers just came out. Not too hot. They need to refinance debt soon. When it does, it will pop. Too cheap for me to throw in the towel. Insiders are selling but I am holding. U decide. This is the only looser in our portfolio. Acetrader owns 20,000 shares. U decide.
MIDS: This has been inching up lately. Our cost is $1.37 - I can not tell you the date but my expection is - this will go up so fast that when it does, you can not afford to buy it then.
EXPEZ: Everything went down today especially the members of QQQQ (Expedia is a proud member of QQQQ). EXPE went up bucking the trend. This is a good sign. Institutions are slowing accumulating this stock. Do expect wall street to come out with a buy reccomemdation on EXPE sometime soon. I can smell it. If you do not own EXPEZ by now, I can not help you. It is a free country.
IDWD: Very exciting! Money is flowing into IDWD. Please go and read the news on this stock! As you know I recently added another 10,000 shares to a total of 20,000 shares now. I am beginning to believe Mr. Down's (CEO) story. Still the most risky among our holdings but I think you can make money with this one. Buy near $1 and sell it near $2? Go!
MATK: No major news. Same business. Every baby needs DHA/ARA in the milk. This business will grow and Martek is the clear leader. Hold for higher price.
IGLD: Simply put, IGLD is making money and through the recent acquisition, it will double its revenue. Being an Israel based company, it is not fully showing its true worth right now. OK, so we will wait then. As long as you make more money every quarter, you're not "fired".
XMSR: Our most recent buy. Holding up quite well. Read my previous notes for more info. Take my word for it. XMSR will trade at higher price later.
NTE: We told you to buy NTE recently but we have not bought it ourselves just yet. Anything near $15 will be OK. Acetrader will buy this soon. I am giving you a head start :)

That's all of our current holdings. I hope this helps. Try to refer my past notes for more details on above stocks. This week looks weak - we will get up and down motion without any meaningful upward move. The market is trying to decide whether to go up from here or to go down again. It doesn't matter. Our stocks will do just fine. I will publish our actual YTD performance numbers at the end of August (next week). My guess is that we will be up +50% or so. I hope you are up just as much - you all certainly had an opportunity to do so if you followed closely. Good night.

P.S: Watch for Gold and Oil to move up.

Motivation: QID

2006-08-19T21:29:00.000-04:00

So far, I am getting luke warm responses regarding the QQQQ trades. I do appreciate many kind words from various readers, for that - I thank you. The reason I openly discuss my personal health issues is to help you live a happier and healthier lives. As human beings we are constantly pursuing our own happiness. This is why we study, get a job, make money, excercise, get married, have children and so on.

Happiness arrive in two different ways: from within & from outside forces.

Here's an example: 1. You get a raise or a promotion - you are happy. 2. You did not get a raise or promotion but realize others were demoted or fired - you are happy. Sometimes unfortunate reality of others give you strength and motivation. My hope is that you watch my real story and be motivated. Motivated to do what exactly? My answer:

1. Make sure you have your priority stright
2. Your health and your family comes before anything else
3. Realize that most people do not understand #2
4. Biggest excuse is "too busy"
5. Too busy for what? (Goto #1)
6. Without health, love & money means very little
7. Eat well, rest well and excercise regularly
8. This is a formular for success
9. Hang out with positive people (kinda hard to be positive and fat)

Another interesting comment from a reader (I wish I knew what to call you - friend). I believe these comments help all of us. Here goes:

Anonymous said...
I follow your blogs and have made good money. But your swing trades in QID seem to be like gambling because I do not believe any one can predict day to day movements.You probably were lucky the last two days.I do admire you with so much medical problems and still writing these blogs and help giving good advice on stocks.

My response: I have different views on this subject. First, it is different from gambling in that this is not a zero sum game. Second, luck has little to do with it. Third, I agree that predicting day to day movements are waste of time. Fourth, However, if I were to show you a 1 minute chart (for one day) without the price and time values, you would think that it was a one year chart of a stock. Fifth, Do you believe investors have target price (prediction) on stocks they buy? Lastly, if you have the time/skill/energy, I think you can have an edge over other investors who do not have such luxury.

Allow me to share one more real trade you can follow:
Friday, we excuted QID trade as per my Thursday notes (another gain). Toward the close of Friday, we bought QID back again at $66.24 (bearish for Monday). If it goes down 1% ($65.58) we will double down (this is it, we never triple down) however, we expect +2% gain on this trade.
Another words, if QID hits $67.56 we got another +2% in the bag again.
Please watch closely, for I may get lucky again : )

Q & A: XMSR

2006-08-18T22:11:00.000-04:00

What a week! I had a fantastic week as far as earnings go. The QQQQ trades were done with razor like precision (using QLD & QID) and overall, the gains were in the five figures this week alone! But here's the thing - I thought I would help some of you by sharing my day (quick) trades on top of our usual Acetrader portfolio management. But I am beginning to think this might be worthless effort on my part.

First, you have to have decent five figure account size to even attempt to try QQQQ trades. Second, you have to follow quite deligently with this blog. Third, this may be too confusing to some of you. In any case, I may decide to simply devote this space for Acetrader account only - without the day trade comments. Please share your thoughts through comment section below. If I do not receive enough positive comments regarding the day trades - it will be discontinued. So move your fingers and vote.

Quick note about my health status: Yes, overall, my chemo sessions are going great. I've been on this chemo for 9 months now (heck, in that time I could have had a baby). Normally people are suffering big by now but I am holding up pretty nicely. But (there's always a but) I started to have sores and scrapes in my mouth as well as in my ass. Having a sore in your mouth is bad enough, but when both of your holes have sores - watch out. Let me just say this: If I were you, I would kneel and thank god every morning that you have a pain free day. There are millions upon millions people who would do just that if only the pain would go away.

Here's a comment from a reader:
Anonymous said...
XMSR somehow reminds me of NFLX (NetFlix) 18 months ago. Simple business model, only a few competitors, few factors to project future earnings (to me, key is fixed cost per customer, market share, and product trend)I made a wrong call 18 months ago after a 2-hour mathmatics exercise, concluded that Netflix was overvalued at $12. Looking back, my projection was simply too pessimistic. I had a similar feeling towards XMSR, (wish I was wrong again)What attracts you in XMSR?

Fantastic question I might add. Here's a guy who is actually thinking out loud. Siyu is a fellow analyst as well as a friend. My answer:

1. Unlike NetFlix - XMSR only has one (1) other competitor - SIRI
2. This is the next best thing to a monopoly
3. This Radio business is not only here to stay but is growing like cancer :)
4. Most people do not know how to value this type of business -NPV
5. Case in point: compare SIRI vs. XMSR (it is ridiculous)
6. XMSR is the current leader between the two
7. All things being equal, XMSR is five times cheaper than SIRI
8. XMSR is only 6-9 months away from profitable quarter
9. Stocks always discount 6-9 months into the future
10. Technically speaking - we are near the breakout.
11. Upside is big - within the last 2 years, it was as high as $40
12. It has GM as a partner -the largest auto maker
13. There's a chance that SIRI might buyout XMSR
14. There's so much negativity on XMSR that downside is limited
15. If you have actually used its service - you can't live without it
16. It's like a navigation system (GRMN) - hooked on it.
17. Most of rental cars decided to place setellite radios
18. People now purchase personal carry-on devices
19. Got XM?

Have a great weekend guys & gals...

Nam Tai (NTE)

2006-08-17T19:15:00.000-04:00

The market seems to have found something it liked. Good earnings reports couldn't do it, end of Israel conflict couldn't do it either. However, tame inflation number did it. Stocks went up fast and furious the last three days. Even recent loosers like Dell & Ebay went up. And of course we took advantage of it by trading the QQQQ.

Allow me to paste exact words from last night's post:
"Tomorrow, I expect the QQQQ to take a little breather. If it gets close to $39 we will go short (buy QID) for a quick 2% gain for the day. I will tell you how that goes."

Well let me tell you how it went. QQQQ went as high as $38.98 (I would consider this to be close to $39). We bought QID at $65.82 (12:20pm) and we sold it at $66.90(2:39pm) for a gain of 1.64% for the day (well, 2 hours to be exact -I use 2,000 share lots for these trades). Before the market close, we again bought QID back at $66.40 hoping for 2%+ gain tomorrow (swing trade it's called). Once again, these day trade gains are "not" being counted in our Acetrader portfolio performances. This is only a quick glimps into what I do during the day. Watch for QID action tomorrow - if it hits $67.7 then we got our 2% in the bag.

We have a new buy candidate. Similar to our recent buy XMSR, this one offers compelling value. I am glad that the wall street does not understand the value in Nam Tai Electronics (NTE).
Nam Tai Electronics, Inc. provides manufacturing and design services to telecommunication and consumer electronic original equipment manufacturers. This is the synopsis:

1. NTE's revenue is growing and it will continue.
2. NTE is profitable (positive operating cash flow).
3. It is a survivor among its competitors.
4. NTE decided to use its cash wisely by investing in the new plants.
5. Currently, close to half of its market value is in cash.
6. Both trailing & forward PE ratio is 10X.
7. Priced at just over half of expected 07' revenue of $1.2 billion.
8. NTE stock is on a serious sale price.
Just buy it now near $15 and hold. This may be a long term holding for us. I like Nam Tai. I have not purchased it yet for Acetrader portfolio. I will do so in the next few days. My friend Siyu shares my feeling on this. His site is at: http://leopardstrategy.blogspot.com/

I think we will have beautiful 4th quarter...

Good news: PM version

2006-08-16T21:42:00.000-04:00

In case you have not noticed, this is second note for today. Below, you will find my AM version which I wrote early this morning before the market opened. Indeed, as expected, the market went up fast. This goes to show you, market movements are very difficult to predict. We are in the trend following business, and not in fortune telling business.

As per my last note, Acetrader bought XMSR at $11.20 this morning. It is just a bit early but I decided to pull the trigger anyway. However, I bought half of my usual unit for now. The other half will be bought if XMSR goes above $12. Just so you kow, my unit is somewhere between $15K-20K. We all need to understand the unit concept in order to effectively manage a portfolio. Go back (way back) and read my note on this.

If you have been reading my note the last few days, you know that I set up the quick trade for QQQQ. As per the note two days ago, I said to go long (buy) QLD if QQQQ goes above $37.70. Well, yesterday before the close, QQQQ went above the trigger price. We bought QLD at $67.45 and immediately placed a sell limit order at $69.95 (hoping that this will be a quick +3.8% hit in a few days). Guess what, it reached that price this afternoon (in a day!). This is a classical day trade (well, swing trade - overnight).

One important reminder, this QLD trade will not be added to our Acetrader portfolio performance figures. As I have said before, I have a long term investment account (this is the Acetrader portfolio) and a day trade account (quick fire moves that are hard for you to effectively follow through this blog). I am trying to slowly show you what I am doing with my day trade account for your pleasure and for education sake. By the way, with my quick in and out moves, I usually move between $150k-$200K per trade. For example, I purchased & sold 2,000 shares of QLD between yesterday and today. If you have less than $20K (minimum) you should not even bother trying to eek out few percentage points - trading cost will kill you.

Tomorrow, I expect the QQQQ to take a little breather. If it gets close to $39 we will go short (buy QID) for a quick 2% gain for the day. I will tell you how that goes.

Keep adding to EXPEZ, UTK, RICK, BTYH and so on. These represent value.

I just bought additional 10,000 shares of IDWD at $0.91 this afternoon. I will sell them at +50% gain whenever that occurs (in a few days?). As you know, I have earned over +50% gains on IDWD several times in the recent past ( all lasting only days). This is a beautiful trading vehicle. For example, today it traded between $0.88 and $1.13 that's almost a 30% swing in one day! (volume of over 1.5 million shares). IDWD trade is included in our Acetrader portfolio. I will be updating the year-to-date performance figures at the end of August.
We are up big in 2006 guys...

Good news: CPI (XMSR)

2006-08-16T09:00:00.000-04:00

I was too tired to update last night.
The new drugs in my chemo session is taking a toll on me. But do not worry, I am stronger than most realize. A little rest should do me good. So this will be quick. It is now 8:55am on Wdenesday before market open.

The stock market will jump up again like yesterday. It jumped yesterday due to favorable PPI numbers. Today it will jump because of favorable CPI numbers. The core CPI was+0.2% in June which means we have tame inflation, which in turn means that Mr. Bernanke might not have to raise rates again, which is good for stocks. Stocks hate higher interest rates because it is a major competitor for stocks.

IGLD came out with excellent record earnings and revenue numbers.
Investors were not too excited about this it seems but I wouldn't worry. One thing is that IGLD mentioned in its 10Q. that the war will probably have some negative impact on its revenue numbers for the third quarter ending September. I am going to keep close eye on this. If it bahaves funny, we will be out quick. I will let you know.

XMSR came out with the news that GM wil cut price of XM Radio option by 39%. This is good news. GM only sells XM. I am slowly getting into XMSR starting this morning. I will buy more when it goes up above$12 or below $10.60. Start fishing now.

As per my last note, QQQQ went above $37.70 which means short term bullish bias. I will be trading QQQQ by buying and selling QLD. I won't be able to update these moves for you since it will be a quick fire moves. But I will try to give you as much info. on it as I can. We bought QLD yesterday afternoon at $67.45 - expect to get out at $69.95 in a day or two.

See you again tonight.

No guts, no glory (IDWD)

2006-08-14T22:18:00.000-04:00

Please go back and re-visit my notes from Aug. 2nd & 4th for IDWD story. I have expressed numerous times that IDWD is the most volatile stock in our portfolio. If you know what you are doing, volatility is your best friend. But I assumed that most readers are either new to investing or semi-professionals where taking extra risk is not advisable until you have few hundred trades under your belt. I specifically said that I was selling half and holding the other half until further developement. Well here is a developement for you.

IDWD jumped +76.1% to close at $1.25/share.

Last Friday, at 12:30pm, I bought 10,000 shares of IDWD at $0.685 and placed a limit order to sell it at $1.09/share (a price I thought it might hit soon - I knew there will be some news). I also knew that I could not be trading on Monday since I will be getting my chemo injection all day. Oh, by the way, I was told by my oncologist that my cancer tumor grew in size slightly (half an inch) in my abdomen area (not a good area to habor tumors - they are having a field day in there). This is bad news. Very bad. My doctor decided to introduce one more drug to my already full plate of chemo drugs. It is called "Erbitux" made by non other than Imclone Systems (IMCL). If you can remember, Ms. Martha Stewards went to jail for buying IMCL stock before the major jump due to FDA approval of the "Erbitux"! This is high tech stuff guys - monoclonal antibody made by combining proteins from human and mouse tissue (what? rat proteins in my blood?). Nice.

Anyway, the limit order was excuted at 10:01am this morning - and I did not even know it until this afternoon (I jsut love stop limit orders). This was pure luck. A gain of +59% in two days! Basically, HLS agreed to purchase IDWD stck for $2.35 per share. More news will be out tomorrow. If you know how to check stock news at Yahoo Finance, do it. Now, here's a question for you. If a company called HLS agreed to pay $2.35 for IDWD, why is the stock at $1.25? We've been here before many times. Investors do not fully believe that this will occur. What do I think? I honestly can't tell you for sure. All I am saying is that I still hold 10,000 shares just in case. And I jump in & out of IDWD in the mean time to take advantage of this volatility. Remember, we also made over+50% gain in two days back in August 4th. Bottom line: if you can afford to take the risk, move in and sell it near $2. Where's good entry point? Near $1.

Some (I mean some) people are selling RICK on the good news. Don't worry, the stock will move up in time. Hold on.

Matic, EXPEZ is going up too - say hi to my fans in Washington.

XMSR is down to my buy range - but let's wait till it moves up. I'd rather pay $12 going up than $10 going down - you know what I mean.

You konw that I trade OIH in & out. Made good $ with this one (trade between $130 - $150). Go back and revisit my OIH trades. It is again coming down to my buy range. Recently we sold this at $141.31 on July 26th for a gain of +8.3% in three (3) days.

Are you noticing that IGLD & MIDS are slowly moving up? We already have gain of +34.25% in MIDS (our cost was $1.37). Don't worry, I don't think MIDS will have any significant move until major news comes up - which I don't know when. But know this, Acetrader has 8,700 shares that says there will be news soon.

I knew PRZ lost its mojo. We will buy this back if it comes close to $1.25/share. We sold this one last week at $1.98 for a gain of +52.2% in two months.

Now, I am really tired.

P.S: Israel/Lebanon cease fire = great news. Wishing the best for parties involved. Too much blood over there - this is why I love America.

PPS: I am smelling something fishy from the way market moved today. As per my note few days ago, "Danger Ahead". We will short QQQQ if it goes below $36.20 using (buying) QID shares. I don't want to do this but I feel that we may have to. If QQQQ goes below $36.20 I will be buying QID looking for 8-10% gain in few days. If instead the market rallys, with QQQQ going above $37.70, we are long (another words buy) QLD looking for similar gains.

Stock Advise: (RICK)

2006-08-13T11:28:00.000-04:00

Anyone familier with Acetrader knows that RICK is currently the largest holding in our portfolio. Our average cost is $4.80 and the stock closed Friday at $6.91 for a gain of +44% so far. Most of you also know that my target price for RICK is over $10/share! By the way, Acetrader owns 5,250 shares of RICK at this time. Everything mentioned in this pages are real time & real money. Don't you find it refreshing to be associated with us?

There are thousands of investment newsletters, advisors, bloggers and stock gurus giving you "stock tips" or "picks" (for money of course). Most try to give you fancy charts and graphs or detailed analysis on why the stock is a good pick. And they give you a lot. As the saying goes " If you throw enough shit against the wall, some will definately stick". Please know that 99% of all advise given are hypothetical portfolios. There are no self interest to protect other than reputations of these advisors. But believe me, when you have your own hard-earned cash on the table, things change - things change a lot.

My interest in keeping this site is two fold:

1. I want my friends & families to hopefully benefit from my hard work ( I know that there are strangers looking at this site but I believe it is still a small community. I do not advertise this site - in fact, I will never do that in the future either. If you introduce yourself briefly to me, I consider you my friend - one can never have too many friends ; )

2. This is my diary. How many people keep daily journals? It is easier siad than done. I do it for me but I also feel responsible to my readers - which keeps me up typing. Yes, many times I do not feel like typing. My hands (fingers) are numb (due to chemo therapy), which explains many typos and errors (do you care?) in these pages. Someday, I want my son Ace to know what I was thinking. I was thinking of you - Ace.

RICK will officially come out with earnings on Monday. I have read the 10Q already though. Here are the facts for quarter ending June 06:

1. Revenue is up +68% compared to same time in 05.
2. Net income is $635,857 compared to a loss of $10,681
3. October - March is the strong months for RICK
4. Aquired several (4) new clubs in 06.
5. You simply can not get a better steak in NYC for $10

If investors are doing their homework, this stock will go up significantly. If it doesn't - buy more at this low price. There are many reasons why people do not buy stocks at this time.
Great! Let me get some.

P.S: RICK owns three adult internet sites as well. www.naughtybids.com www.couplestouch.com and www.xxxpassword.com Yes, I enjoy porn too.

PPS: Also keep buying EXPEZ if price is right. It will hit our target of close to $10/warrant.
PPPS: The current price of BTYH will look crazy a year from now. You just watch.